Categories Finance

This is War: An Economic Perspective

Two decades ago this month, we logged into our first email account as we embarked on our freshman year of college. Along with our student ID cards, we were handed a new realm of communication.

At that time, the World Wide Web was like an untamed frontier, filled with uncertainty about its future. Even now, the ultimate trajectory of this digital landscape remains unclear.

However, one thing is undeniable: email has become a burdensome tether, making professional life increasingly challenging. Coupled with smartphones, the demands of modern work seem endless.

Indeed, much like the first generation to be influenced by the relentless ticking of the clock, we’ve grown weary of email. We often reminisce about the era before its introduction—a time when the boundary between work and personal life was distinctly defined. This is one of the undeniable drawbacks of innovation.

Looking back, it’s evident that the gift of instant communication comes at a steep cost: one’s time, freedom, and privacy. Sure, one can choose to disconnect, but the daunting task of reconnecting to a flood of unread emails can deter us from taking breaks in the first place.

The Best and the Brightest

At the Economic Prism, we embrace the future, while acknowledging our nostalgia for the past. We step into tomorrow, whether we like it or not. So rather than dwelling on our reflections of email’s 20-year journey, we shift our focus to the intriguing realm of economics and the absurdity of government policies.

Many economic factors lie beyond the control of finance leaders. This is why we find it fascinating to observe their attempts at fostering prosperity through regulations and directives.

Recently, the leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) nations convened in Ankara, Turkey. Nestled among the historical ruins of the Temple of Augustus, they exchanged pleasantries over pilaf and Turkish delight, seeking novel strategies to generate wealth.

While no concrete solutions were proposed, one consensus emerged: relying solely on monetary policy is no longer seen as a surefire route to economic growth. If it were, after nearly seven years of aggressive credit strategies, everyone would be flourishing.

Instead, the global economy is running in circles without significant progress. Wages have declined broadly, while the stock market, after a prolonged bull run, now shows signs of fatigue. But fret not; the G20 participants are actively addressing this situation.

This is War

“Financial leaders from the world’s 20 biggest economies agreed on Saturday to enhance reform initiatives to combat disappointingly slow growth, acknowledging that an over-reliance on historically low interest rates will not suffice for economic acceleration,” reported Reuters.

However, the specifics of these reform measures remain vague. For years, the G20 has mainly focused on artificially keeping interest rates low, and they have now publicly recognized this strategy’s ineffectiveness.

Perhaps the reforms will involve increased budget deficits—though it’s uncertain. As it stands, countries are already overwhelmed with debt, and the idea of borrowing and spending more doesn’t seem like a viable path out of economic stagnation. The G20 did offer some insights, stating…

“We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our actions, especially in the context of major monetary and other policy decisions, to minimize negative spillovers, mitigate uncertainty, and promote transparency.”

This suggests that each country’s finance minister will feign consideration for their actions in light of the global economy. Yet, the reality is that when it truly matters, they are likely to prioritize their national interests above all else.

As a result, we should brace ourselves for unexpected currency devaluations and shifts in interest rates. After all, this is indeed a war.

Sincerely,

MN Gordon
for Economic Prism

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