Something peculiar is unfolding in the financial scene. Ten-year Treasury yields and gold are both indicating opposing signs—inflation and deflation—simultaneously. Over the past month, yields on the ten-year Treasury note have surged from 1.98% to 2.34%, while the price of gold has plummeted by approximately $100 an ounce during the same period.
So, who holds the right perspective—Treasury yields or gold? Are we heading toward inflation or deflation?
As we drove east along the 60 freeway from Los Angeles to Oak Glen last Saturday, these questions slipped away, becoming less significant as the urban landscape faded into the distance.
Oak Glen, situated just beyond the sprawling outskirts of Southern California, offers a distinct contrast. The air is fresh and invigorating at its mile-high altitude, and the local residents exude a calm and friendly demeanor, in stark opposition to the city’s typical hustle and bustle.
In this serene locale, you won’t find stoplights or fast-food chains. The landscape remains unspoiled by billboards and power lines. Continue reading
Another Government Ponzi Scheme Starts to Crack – Do You Depend on It?
By Nick Giambruno, International Man
Government officials often engage in behaviors that would result in imprisonment for the average citizen.
For instance, they are legally permitted to employ offensive violence rather than just defensive measures. They can seize property without consent, monitor personal emails and bank accounts at will, accumulate trillions in debt, and pass the financial burden onto future generations. They even counterfeit currency and manipulate statistics with misleading tactics that no business could justify. And that merely scratches the surface…
The U.S. government operates under a unique version of a Ponzi scheme.
According to Merriam-Webster, a Ponzi scheme is defined as:
“[A]n investment swindle where early investors are compensated with funds from newer contributors to encourage more significant risks.” Continue reading
“On two occasions, I have been asked, ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you input the wrong numbers into the machine, will the correct answers emerge? …I cannot fathom the kind of confusion that would lead to such a question.’” – Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher.
Crunching Data to Fix Prices
The primary challenge confronting today’s economy is the blatant disregard shown by governments worldwide for free trade and private property rights. Perhaps their aim is to assert power and control, or maybe they genuinely believe they are improving economic conditions for everyone.
It’s difficult to say for certain. However, it is undeniably evident that the chaotic mess created by contemporary economic policies has affected us all. Engaging in any transaction has become convoluted, often disrupted by various forms of intervention affecting payment prices.
Taxes, tariffs, wage regulations, and subsidies—all of these factors influence pricing. Yet, the greatest disruptor remains the central banks’ manipulations of money and credit markets. Their incessant attempts to control the economy through financial manipulation skew the prices of everything else. Continue reading
The stock market seems to have regained its upward momentum. The S&P 500 is once again exceeding its 200-day moving average and is now less than 50 points shy of its all-time high of approximately 2,131.
In no time, the brief panic experienced in August and September will be remembered as just a small blip on the price chart—a moment where stocks consolidated, coiled, and then launched toward new record highs. Advocates of ‘buy the dip’ will likely use this for validation and a sense of satisfaction.
Currently, stock valuations are nearly at their highest levels ever. Regardless of how one assesses it—whether through the Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Buffett indicator—overall stock prices are indisputably overvalued. This simple reality is largely being overlooked at present.
Moreover, treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are at a historical low following a 30-plus year credit cycle. When these yields eventually rise, they could continue climbing for the next two decades. As yields start to ascend in earnest, asset prices are likely to decrease as borrowing costs rise. Continue reading
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In the wake of contrasting signals from the financial market, it becomes essential to analyze the current economic dynamics. Over the past month, significant fluctuations in Treasury yields and gold prices have left many questioning the underlying trends.
In conclusion, the interplay between Treasury yields and gold continues to provoke debate about future economic outcomes. As we witness these developments, it’s crucial to remain informed and prepared for various financial scenarios.
