The current landscape of global food systems is complicated and concerning. While rising beef prices prompted the Trump administration to suggest importing more from abroad, this strategy highlights a troubling reliance on international markets. This dependency comes at a time when the United States is simultaneously causing disruptions in global supply chains.
<p>Through ongoing conflicts with countries like Iran and Russia, the U.S. has managed to significantly impact its agricultural stability:</p>
<ul>
<li>Severe destruction of fertilizer supplies.</li>
<li>Shortages of natural gas, essential for fertilizer production.</li>
<li>Diesel shortages leading to reduced harvest outputs.</li>
</ul>
<p>Yves has been providing daily updates on the situation in Iran, stressing early on that dwindling fertilizer supplies and soaring energy costs would inevitably result in higher food prices, a reality we are witnessing now.</p>
<p>Moreover, it remains uncertain what drastic measures the U.S. may undertake next that could exacerbate the situation. Many observers didn't expect the current conflicts to escalate to this extent.</p>
<p>A logical area to anticipate further escalation is Washington's approach to various global chokepoints and seaborne trade routes, making the transport of agricultural products increasingly difficult and expensive.</p>
<p>Over just a few years, the U.S. has managed to impede traffic through numerous primary chokepoints, and even secondary ones are beginning to present significant concerns:</p>
<p>
<img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-315786" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Maritime-Chokepoints-1024x579.png" alt="" width="600" height="339"/>
</p>
<p>It wouldn't be surprising if we see an uptick in conflicts or blockades related to commercial shipping, further entangling food supplies in a web of proxy and economic warfare.</p>
<p>All these factors converge to push prices upward. The U.S. and Europe seemingly believe they can simply outbid poorer nations for resources, and while they likely can, they may face backlash. Meanwhile, the risk of famine, political instability, mass migration, and conflict looms larger in other regions.</p>
<p>Is this a deliberate shock therapy on a civilizational scale, or merely profound incompetence? The U.S. may provide "help" through financial assistance, like Pakistan's recent $10 billion request following negotiations regarding Iran, while others may find themselves targets for regime change.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***</p>
<p>Now, let’s turn our focus to the domestic scene in the United States.</p>
<p>One might expect that the country once revered as the world's breadbasket would do everything in its power to support its agricultural sector to ensure food security. However, this is far from the reality.</p>
<p>Food insecurity is escalating rapidly, as price hikes coincide with cuts in assistance programs. Cases of foodborne illnesses are alarmingly high, the cattle industry is in distress, and data centers are prioritized over essential agricultural support. Let's delve into the current state of affairs in the U.S., which stands as the second-largest food importer globally, following China.</p>
<p>The Big Beautiful Bill is proving its impact by significantly reducing the number of eligible food assistance recipients:</p>
<div id="attachment_315788" style="width: 503px" class="wp-caption aligncenter">
<img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-315788" class="size-large wp-image-315788" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/SNAPEnrollment-842x1024.webp" alt="" width="493" height="600"/>
<p id="caption-attachment_315788" class="wp-caption-text">Source: Stephen Seemler</p>
</div>
<p>Furthermore, in anticipation of civil unrest, it’s crucial to note that the government has used the resulting savings to enhance surveillance and policing efforts. According to <a href="https://www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-food-assistance-cliff" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Stephen Semler</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It's ironic that the same legislation that created a food assistance crisis also allocated $75 billion to ICE—more than the agency has demonstrated the capacity to manage. Effectively, food aid has been re-routed from those in need to ICE.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump's decision to remove millions from food assistance came right after Biden decreased monthly benefits by a third, with every congressional Democrat supporting the measure except Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Who says bipartisanship is dead?</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, food insecurity is on the rise, and this is only before hitting the significant impacts of grain, diesel, and fertilizer shortages. El Niño is also joining the conversation.</p>
<div id="attachment_315787" style="width: 610px" class="wp-caption aligncenter">
<img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-315787" class="size-large wp-image-315787" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/FoodInsecurity-1024x926.png" alt="" width="600" height="543"/>
<p id="caption-attachment_315787" class="wp-caption-text">Source: Stephen Semler</p>
</div>
<p>This is happening in the so-called <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/donald-trump-terms-tariff-critics-fools-says-us-is-now-the-richest-country/ar-AA1Q7rum" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">“richest country in the world,”</a> as Trump called it while dismissing critics of his trade policies as “fools.” Speaking of those policies…</p>
<p>Interestingly, Trump has had to issue rebates after enacting tariffs. Consequently, companies that raised prices to counteract these tariffs received refunds. If you're still waiting for yours, you're not alone—though companies like Costco have reportedly passed on some of these rebates to their members.</p>
<p>Despite the rebates, food prices <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dawnthilmany/2026/08/25/whats-for-dinner-and-how-much-will-it-cost/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">are not decreasing</a>. A significant reason is that companies often choose not to lower prices, even as their profits soar amidst this turmoil. The chaotic disruptions across global supply channels in regions like the Middle East and Black Sea are also contributing factors.</p>
<p>Climate change, infectious diseases, and rising foodborne illness rates contribute to the ongoing crisis. The U.S. government appears to dismiss these threats as either harmless or not worth addressing.</p>
<p>Additionally, the Trump administration cut back further on food inspections, which were already minimal, leading to a recent outbreak of cyclospora that affected thousands across various states. According to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/30/usda-cyclospora-research-projects-01055989?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f0ef-dd93-ad7f-f8ef14580001" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Politico</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Two of the three projects representing the bulk of the Agriculture Department's study on the parasite had their funding cut earlier this year. The remaining project is set to relocate from Maryland to Iowa this fall due to a larger USDA reorganization. While this project still has funding, all scientists involved have declined to move.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Corruption further hindered timely responses, leading to confusion as the outbreak unfolded. The <a href="https://archive.is/q3dhD#selection-877.0-889.0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wall Street Journal</a> has reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Taylor Farms approached the White House after company executives felt insufficient clarity from the FDA regarding the evidence for a potential recall and its scope. Health and Human Services spokesperson Emily Hilliard stated that the FDA provided substantial evidence linking their products to the outbreak and engaged in comprehensive discussions with the company.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Foodborne illnesses not only result in severe health impacts and fatalities, but also lead to costly recalls, which ultimately get passed on to consumers, exacerbating food insecurity.</p>
<p>Trump continues to act as a catalyst in these already escalated crises. According to <a href="https://archive.is/a2u7S" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wired</a>, the FDA has recorded over 12,800 illnesses connected to foodborne outbreaks in 2026, a figure that far exceeds any annual toll since 2020. This surge results from long-standing trends of underfunding food safety systems, transferring most responsibilities to companies, and a deteriorating public health infrastructure, all of which the Trump administration has embraced.</p>
<p>The same scenario applies to the cattle industry, which is already struggling due to the concentrated control of packers. These companies have limited their access to the available fed cattle supply by shutting down multiple processing plants earlier this year.</p>
<p>Now, the screwworm menace looms, likely exacerbated by the administrative neglect. From <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/usda-lost-20-000-workers-175712498.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Moneywise</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC) reports that the USDA lost approximately 20,000 employees between January 2025 and January 2026. During this period, the USDA’s Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) lost 2,009 employees, accounting for 23% of its workforce. A June 10 report from The Hill noted that the Trump administration “cut funding at USDA for programs specifically aimed at monitoring and addressing New World screwworm.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Shockingly, the USDA decided to <a href="https://www.beefcentral.com/news/us-to-reopen-cattle-imports-from-mexico-despite-ongoing-screwworm-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">reopen</a> Mexican cattle imports last August, despite existing concerns about the screwworm in Mexico. Does Big Ag even prioritize food safety?</p>
<p>Even prior to the emergence of the screwworm issue, domestic beef production was already declining, while imports were rising. According to <a href="https://www.morningagclips.com/op-ed-domestic-beef-supply-chain-on-road-to-ruin/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Morning Ag Clips</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the first half of 2026, imports accounted for nearly 30% of beef produced from domestic cattle. America's reliance on foreign beef has never been greater, further displacing domestic production and discouraging herd expansion.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now, Trump proposes to import a significant amount of beef, supposedly to lower consumer costs, though there's little reason to believe that will materialize. Naturally, rancher groups are furious.</p>
<p>“You don’t prioritize American interests by putting U.S. cattle producers at a disadvantage. This move jeopardizes our markets and threatens food safety,” stated Justin Tupper, President of the United States Cattlemen's Association.</p>
<p>Justin, that may just be the intended outcome, especially considering it benefits multinational beef packers and retailers seeking cheaper supplies.</p>
<p>It's also worth noting that investigations <a href="https://www.savageminds.co/p/horse-anyone" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">reveal</a> animals like horses are making their way into the sprawling global meat supply chain, likely keeping costs low and profits high.</p>
<p>And let's not forget the encroachment of data center developers on agricultural land, which competes for essential resources like power and water. The AI craze is compounding the <a href="https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2026/06/24/ai-data-center-boom-farmland/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">already significant challenges</a> faced by small-scale farmers and further centralizing agricultural production.</p>
<p>Making sense of such systemic failures may feel like an impossible task, but let's try nevertheless.</p>
<p>Who stands to gain?</p>
<p>Defense contractors and surveillance industries, as destabilized food systems will threaten both the U.S. and the global landscape? Perhaps Mark Zuckerberg intends to expand his vertically integrated cattle venture?</p>
<p>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-315789" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-08-31-at-8.31.07 PM-579x1024.png" alt="" width="339" height="600"/>
</p>
<p>More seriously, it's evident that sometimes, Big Ag profits. Importing more beef, for instance, enhances their profit margins. We've seen the Trump administration use this playbook before, allowing oligarchs to capitalize on crises—often crises of their own making. As deportations ramped up, stories of farm labor shortages emerged across the country. The notion that Americans would fill those gaps due to new Medicaid work requirements was always fanciful (most <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/understanding-the-intersection-of-medicaid-and-work-an-update/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Medicaid recipients who can work</a> already do, and those who can’t usually do so due to disabilities or caregiving responsibilities, with many living too far from farms).</p>
<p>To accommodate the anticipated labor shortage resulting from deportations, the administration predictably expanded the guest worker program while simultaneously reducing wage requirements. Workers' continued presence in the U.S. is directly linked to their employers, disallowing unionization and creating a more exploitable workforce. Was it an impractical but genuine effort to employ American workers, or was there an ulterior motive? Trump’s long-standing interest in guest workers at his own properties, along with his administration's expansion of the program, suggests it might be the latter.</p>
<p>While a combination of incompetence, oligarchic interests, and corruption is likely at play, ideological forces are also present—advocating for minimal government oversight, promoting “free” markets, and treating labor as disposable. Ideals encompassing a grim philosophy can be summarized as:</p>
<p>Cows unable to withstand screwworm should perish.</p>
<p>Individuals unable to cope with foodborne illnesses are weak.</p>
<p>Those who cannot afford food simply should not eat.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">In case it’s not clear to some people, this is classic eugenicist rhetoric and a core feature of fascist politics. It implies that sick and disabled people are failing ‘the nation’ and are thus a burden to be stigmatized, shamed, and eliminated. <a href="https://t.co/esdqmkSClP" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/esdqmkSClP</a></p>
<p>— Eric Reinhart (@_Eric_Reinhart) <a href="https://x.com/_Eric_Reinhart/status/1921906346825257056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">May 12, 2025</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whether this predicament arises from sheer incompetence or a calculated ideological framework—or lies somewhere in between—things are bound to worsen.</p>
<p>With El Niño approaching, the stakes are about to rise even higher.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Again: It would be a challenge to deal with the forthcoming super niño’s destabilizing effects on key global food crops regardless of extraneous factors; it’s a whole other ballgame though when it’s coming on TOP of rapid anthropogenic warming and the recent surge in autocratic… <a href="https://t.co/8M4zobn2mM" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/8M4zobn2mM</a></p>
<p>— Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene (@ryankatzrosene) <a href="https://x.com/ryankatzrosene/status/2092960247698665741?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">August 27, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
