Welcome to the second part of our series highlighting noteworthy titles from 2012. This compilation serves as a recap of The Capital Spectator’s must-read selections that merit a second glance. Each of the reviews included here made their debut earlier this year, and we’re excited to present them once again for your enjoyment.
“A noteworthy development in the global economy over the past decade and a half has been the impressive economic growth seen across much of sub-Saharan Africa,” mentioned Charles Collyns, assistant secretary for international finance at the US Treasury, earlier this month. While we’ve heard such proclamations before, they often fell short upon closer examination. Is the story different this time? It’s possible. Let’s delve into some statistics and explore an ETF that targets investments within this region.
Last week saw a surprisingly significant decrease in jobless claims, as reported recently. This update provides further support for the notion that the labor market is experiencing growth and may continue to do so into early 2013, potentially gaining momentum beyond initial estimations. Despite the uncertainties posed by the fiscal cliff, the 2012 labor market figures suggest a strong case for optimism regarding job growth moving forward.
As we approach the end of 2012, what insights have we gained from an investment standpoint? One key takeaway remains consistently relevant: maintaining focus on portfolio management is essential. As Markowitz noted long ago, the core principles of portfolio design and management continue to underpin successful investing, reaffirmed by both theory and empirical evidence.
The final labor market report for the year is anticipated to yield inconclusive results. Recent surveys suggest that economists expect a steady or slightly improved figure for weekly jobless claims for the week ending December 22. According to The Capital Spectator’s econometric average forecast, new unemployment filings (seasonally adjusted) are expected to rise to 363,000, compared to the previous 361,000. If this prediction holds true, December’s jobless claims would indicate a hopeful decline compared to the same month last year, suggesting a continued trend of labor market growth.
So now is come our joyful feast,
Let every man be jolly;
Each room with ivy leaves is dressed,
And every post with holly.
Though some churls at our mirth repine,
Round your foreheads garlands twine,
Drown sorrow in a cup of wine,
And let us all be merry.
—George Wither, “A Christmas Carol”
A frosty Christmas Eve
when the stars were shining
Fared I forth alone
where westward falls the hill,
And from many a village
in the water’d valley
Distant music reach’d me
peals of bells aringing:
The constellated sounds
ran sprinkling on earth’s floor
As the dark vault above
with stars was spangled o’er.
Then sped my thoughts to keep
that first Christmas of all
When the shepherds watching
by their folds ere the dawn
Heard music in the fields
and marveling could not tell
Whether it were angels
or the bright stars singing.
–Robert Bridges, “Noël: Christmas Eve 1913”
Navigating the complex influx of macroeconomic data to better understand the business cycle can overwhelm many investors, including some economists. The Capital Spectator Trend Index (CS-ETI) attempts to provide clarity. Recent updates on CS-ETI have proven effective in presenting a comprehensive view of the economy’s performance based on a wide range of data. However, data interpretation can vary, and CS-ETI is just one method. How can we verify its signals? One approach is to analyze the same data through an alternative statistical framework. Enter The Capital Spectator Economic Momentum Index (CS-EMI), which complements CS-ETI.
It’s that time of year again for The Capital Spectator’s annual review of this year’s literary contributions. Your editor has the challenging task of narrowing it down to ten standout titles from a particularly fruitful year in the macroeconomic and financial publishing landscape. Why just ten? It’s a manageable number that simplifies the selection process compared to twenty. Unfortunately, with so many fascinating releases this year, it’s a shame that there’s little time to explore more than a few. However, if one must choose only ten from a year nearly at its end, what should they be? This question is undoubtedly challenging, especially since the titles below solely originate from the Book Bits feature, which appears regularly every Saturday here. The following is a curated review of previously published content. Without further ado, here are the first five titles, with the remaining five to follow next week. Happy reading!
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) experienced a notable increase in November, signaling that “economic activity increased” during that month, according to the Chicago Federal Reserve reports. Additionally, CFNAI’s three-month moving average also rose, reaching -0.20 last month. This result aligns closely with The Capital Spectator’s econometric forecast for CFNAI, which was released yesterday. A reading above -0.70 for CFNAI’s three-month average suggests economic growth, echoing the positive message found in recent news regarding personal income and spending for November.