Last month, industrial activity experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percent, partially reversing the 0.8 percent increase seen in September, as reported by the Federal Reserve reports. This downturn was unexpected, with analysts forecasting a 0.3% increase, according to consensus estimates from Econoday.com. However, the manufacturing sector did see a modest rise of 0.2%, indicating that the weakness in overall output was not widespread. Despite this, the softer figures from October impacted the year-over-year growth, leaving industrial production up by just 4.0%, the slowest rate of growth in six months.
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● Japan Prepares Stimulus After Unexpectedly Tumbling to Recession | Bloomberg
● Global economy to suffer as Putin quits G20 early | Telegraph
● Euro zone trade surplus jumps y/y in Sept on stronger exports | Reuters
● Australia, China seal free-trade agreement | Marketwatch
● Low Gas Prices to Support US Confidence, Sales Ahead | MNI
● House, Senate To Vote On Bill Approving Keystone XL Pipeline | RTT
The Federal Reserve’s report for October is anticipating a 0.2% increase in U.S. industrial production compared to the previous month, according to the median forecast by The Capital Spectator from various econometric models. This expected growth marks a significant slowdown compared to the 1.0% surge recorded in September.
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● The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp
by Marin Katusa
Interview with author via Yahoo Finance
“President Putin has clearly broken the [Sept. 5] truce agreement,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in a conversation with Germany’s Bild. Yet, traders appear unfazed, perhaps drawing parallels with earlier events when Russia annexed Crimea.
Katusa cautions that “the situation is likely to escalate, becoming increasingly violent,” emphasizing that Ukraine is central to Putin’s strategy of making Europe more reliant on Russian energy. He is also expanding his energy exports to countries like China, indicating a dual strategy.
In his recent book, “The Colder War”, Katusa explores Putin’s long-term plan to restore Russia’s status as a global superpower through the strategic use of energy.
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Retail sales for October rose by 0.3%, according to the Census Bureau reports—aligning with prior expectations. The year-over-year growth rate for spending slightly decreased, registering a 4.1% increase compared to 4.4% in the previous release. Despite this minor dip, the latest figures indicate that consumption on Main Street remains comfortably above 4%, a trend maintained since March. One factor supporting continued moderate growth in sales is the decrease in gasoline prices, which has recently provided a significant boost to disposable income.
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As we approach the release of October’s housing data next week, attention will refocus on the pressing question: Is this vital sector of the U.S. economy still a potential risk to the business cycle? Recent data appear somewhat more promising compared to the softer trends observed earlier in the year, though the pace of growth in housing remains sluggish compared to the strong increases seen in 2012 and 2013. Currently, fears surrounding housing have diminished, but it remains uncertain whether the trend will stabilize at a lower growth rate. We will gain more insights after the upcoming figures are released, starting with the update on new residential construction scheduled for November 19. In the meantime, let’s assess three key indicators: new home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts, along with an outlook on prices.
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● Hiring in U.S. Picks Up as Workers Gain Confidence to Quit Jobs | Bloomberg
● German Economy Returns to Growth as France Beats Forecast | Bloomberg
● Obama, defiant, says immigration action ‘going to happen’ | The Hill
● Putin Berates US Over Sanctions Before G20 Meeting | VOA
● Oil set to fall further in ‘new chapter’ for markets: IEA | CNBC
New unemployment claims rose more sharply than anticipated last week, according to the latest report from the Labor Department. Jobless claims climbed by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 290,000 for the week ending November 8—the highest level since late September. While these figures may seem concerning, placing them in a historical context reveals that a positive trend still supports the U.S. labor market.
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In tomorrow’s October report, U.S. retail sales are expected to show a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month, according to the median econometric forecast by The Capital Spectator. This prediction indicates a significant recovery in growth following the 0.3% decline observed last month.
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● ECB warned euro zone inflation, growth to be lower than expected | Reuters
● China industrial output growth, retail sales slow | Marketwatch
● Russia Sends More Convoys Into Ukraine as Cease-Fire Collapses | Time
● Fed’s Dudley: expectations for mid-2015 rate lift-off reasonable | Reuters
● US EIA Lowers Expectations For 2015 Oil and Gasoline Prices | MNI
As various economic indicators and predictions unfold, analysts and consumers alike are watching closely. The trends observed this month may provide critical insights into future market conditions and economic stability.