Last week, commodities experienced a notable increase, outperforming all other major asset classes for the week ending December 2, according to a collection of proxy ETFs. This gain marks the second consecutive week that broadly defined commodities have taken the lead.
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● The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics
By John Judis
Review via The Economist
The Western intellectual community has struggled to comprehend the populist movements, often trivializing them or labeling them as extremist. John Judis, a respected writer and journalist, stands out as an exception. In “The Populist Explosion,” he offers a thorough analysis that feels more like a detailed report than a casual read. It is well-crafted, extensively researched, and compellingly articulated, making it a timely publication.
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According to a recent update from the Labor Department, US companies added 156,000 jobs last month. This seasonal adjustment reflects a moderate increase over October’s lackluster gain of 135,000. However, in comparison to the more positive trends evidenced in ADP’s private sector employment data, government figures point to continued slowdown in year-over-year growth.
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In November, the anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose steadily, reaching its highest point in over two years. The GMI, a market-value weighted aggregate of major asset classes, is currently forecasted to yield an annualized return of 4.3% in the long term, slightly above last month’s prediction.
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Global markets faced a downturn in November, with a few exceptions: US equities, high-yield bonds, and broadly defined commodities all showed gains. For most other asset classes, the month was marked by declines.
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The predictions from the “recession-is-always-around-the-corner” crowd were challenged by positive private payroll data for November. According to the ADP Employment Report, US companies added 216,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted), marking the largest increase in five months. This gain bolsters the Federal Reserve’s argument for raising interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
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Recent projections suggest that the rebound in US economic growth from the third quarter may be at risk in the fourth quarter. If forecasts hold, the 2.9% growth rate recorded in Q3 (the highest in two years) is expected to decrease to around 2.0%. Although this indicates an improvement from the sluggish growth rates seen from Q4:2015 to Q2:2016, estimates for Q4 signal a potential softening of the macroeconomic trend in the last quarter of the year.
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Last week, commodities surged to achieve the highest weekly gains among the major asset classes, as tracked by a selection of proxy ETFs. Fueled by expectations of rising inflation, these commodities significantly outperformed in the shortened trading week that concluded on Friday, November 25.
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The President has designated today as a National Day of Thanksgiving, and The Capital Spectator is pleased to honor this proclamation. In fact, this holiday will be celebrated through the weekend, with regular activities resuming on Monday, November 28. Wishing everyone a happy Thanksgiving!
In another indicator that the Federal Reserve is gearing up to raise interest rates, the real (inflation-adjusted) M0 money supply saw an increased decline in October. The year-over-year drop of 13.4% is the largest recorded since 1948, representing a significant decrease from September’s 8.8% decline.
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