The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

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    <p>While predicting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy choices is notoriously uncertain, a robust increase in US private payrolls for February, reported by <a href="https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/">ADP</a>, provides a compelling argument for the hawkish camp. This data point could influence decision-making at the upcoming FOMC meeting.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-a-rate-hike-certain-after-adps-strong-us-employment-report/#more-8600" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-a-rate-hike-certain-after-adps-strong-us-employment-report/" title="7:04 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-09T07:04:38-05:00">March 9, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8598">
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        <p>US businesses showed impressive hiring momentum in February, according to the <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/February/NER/NER-February-2017.aspx">ADP Employment Report</a>. Private payrolls surged by 298,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 183,000 provided by Econoday.com. This increase marks the strongest monthly gain in nearly three years. Additionally, the year-over-year payroll growth trend has improved for the second consecutive month. If this optimistic trend is validated by the official jobs report from Washington on Friday, it would further enhance expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at next week’s meeting.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/adp-reports-sharply-stronger-us-jobs-growth-in-february/#more-8598" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/adp-reports-sharply-stronger-us-jobs-growth-in-february/" title="9:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-08T09:18:18-05:00">March 8, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8596">
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        <p>Indeed, as per the latest revised GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed and the Rapid Update survey by CNBC, the Capital Spectator's economic projection is indicating a slower growth rate compared to the last quarter of 2016. Although it remains early to conclude definitively — much of the first-quarter data is still unfolding — the outlook for strong economic performance at the start of 2017 appears less promising than reported two weeks ago in the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/most-forecasters-see-stronger-us-gdp-growth-in-q1/">previous review of GDP estimates</a>.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-economic-growth-slowing-in-q1/#more-8596" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-economic-growth-slowing-in-q1/" title="7:25 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-08T07:25:08-05:00">March 8, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8592">
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        <p>The positive momentum within the financial sector continues into early March, as evidenced by the trailing one-year returns of select proxy ETFs. While all ten sectors of the US equity market report gains over the past year, financial stocks are leading the way with a notable advantage.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/financials-continue-to-lead-us-equity-sectors-higher/#more-8592" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/financials-continue-to-lead-us-equity-sectors-higher/" title="6:12 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-07T06:12:53-05:00">March 7, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8589">
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        <p>The Global Market Index (an unmanaged benchmark that reflects all major asset classes) experienced a modest uptick of 0.1% during the first week of March, spurred by gains in US and developed-market stocks. This marks a continued positive trend, as the index has seen weekly increases since late January — the longest uninterrupted series of increases in over two years.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/global-market-index-edges-higher-for-6th-straight-week/#more-8589" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/global-market-index-edges-higher-for-6th-straight-week/" title="6:44 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-06T06:44:03-05:00">March 6, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8586">
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        <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/cc.04mar2017-1.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-8587 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/cc.04mar2017-1.png" alt="" width="193" height="293"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1250108691/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1250108691&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=98fad10c73f24fb715c1949e48e5a7f5" target="_blank">The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=1250108691" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>By Tyler Cowen<br/><strong><a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/03/02/517915510/americas-complacent-class-how-self-segregation-is-leading-to-stagnation">Q&amp;A</a> with author via NPR</strong><br/>In his new book, *The Complacent Class*, economist Tyler Cowen asserts that America is becoming stagnant. He argues that people are increasingly risk-averse, showing less inclination to change jobs or move to different states. Moreover, he expresses concern about a growing trend of communities self-segregating based on income, education, or race. In a discussion with NPR’s Rachel Martin, Cowen delves into these issues.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-4-march-2017/#more-8586" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-4-march-2017/" title="7:31 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-04T07:31:35-05:00">March 4, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8576">
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        <p>Though talk may be inexpensive, the consistent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened the expectations for a rate hike announcement in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for March 14-15.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-officials-talk-up-rate-hike-odds/#more-8576" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-officials-talk-up-rate-hike-odds/" title="7:07 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-03T07:07:53-05:00">March 3, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8571">
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        <p>The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) experienced a significant increase in February. This unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2017-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> is now projected to deliver an annualized return of 4.9% over the long term, notably higher than last month’s estimate of 4.3%.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-march-2017/#more-8571" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-march-2017/" title="6:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-02T06:18:17-05:00">March 2, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8568">
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        <p>Most global markets saw price increases in February, with several types of foreign bonds in US dollar terms being notable exceptions. Overall, major asset classes enjoyed upward momentum last month, continuing from January’s <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-january-2017-performance-review/">broad-based gains</a>.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2017-performance-review/#more-8568" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2017-performance-review/" title="6:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-03-01T06:18:51-05:00">March 1, 2017</time></a>
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<div id="post-8565">
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        <p>While a rate increase at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is still deemed unlikely, the chances of an unexpected hike are gradually rising, as indicated by Fed funds futures data.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-fed-considering-a-rate-hike-in-march/#more-8565" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-fed-considering-a-rate-hike-in-march/" title="6:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-02-28T06:30:16-05:00">February 28, 2017</time></a>
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<div class="conclusion">
    <p>As these developments unfold, they highlight the delicate balance between economic growth indicators and Federal Reserve policy decisions. The upcoming weeks could provide clarity on these critical issues, influencing both market dynamics and economic forecasts.</p>
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