History provides some notable insights regarding the stock market’s performance, especially in contexts of rising inflation and interest rates. According to a recent New York Times article, there are indeed reasons to approach the future of stocks with caution.
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Global stocks are poised for their highest weekly gain since 2011: Reuters
US industrial production decreased in January, marking the first decline in five months: MarketWatch
US producer prices increased in January—another indication of rising inflation: WSJ
Jobless claims in the US rose after reaching nearly a 45-year low: Reuters
NY Fed manufacturing index shows a slight dip in February: RTT
Philly Fed index indicates stronger manufacturing growth in February: RTT
Builder confidence in the US remains high in February: HousingWire
History advises caution for stocks when rates and inflation rise: NY Times
A study reveals financial advisors’ poor investment decisions: SSRN
The two-year Treasury yield rises to 2.19%, the highest since 2008:
Recent reports on retail sales and consumer inflation in January indicated that the US economic landscape is facing some challenges. The unexpectedly weak spending figures suggest that economic momentum has slowed at the start of 2018. Additionally, it seems that pricing pressures are no longer reliably low. When reviewing the latest annual changes, new concerns arise for the upcoming months; however, it’s still too soon to interpret these updates as definitive warning signals for the economy.
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Tragic shooting at a Florida high school leaves 17 victims: Sun Sentinel
South Africa’s president resigns, creating challenges for the successor: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation exceeded expectations in January: Reuters
US retail spending declined across the board in January: USA Today
Weak retail sales and rising inflation could overstate economic challenges: Bloomberg
BofA Merrill Lynch survey indicates 70% of fund managers foresee upcoming troubles: MarketWatch
US business inventories showed a larger-than-expected increase in December: MarketWatch
Inflation expectations among businesses remain stable: Atlanta Fed
Revised data indicates robust Eurozone GDP growth at 0.6% in Q4: RTT
GDPNow estimates US Q1 growth to slow to 3.2%: Atlanta Fed
The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast reached its highest level since 2014 last week, signaling growing unease concerning rising price pressures. However, the reflation trade has tempered this week, leading some analysts to argue that fears surrounding inflation may be overstated. A reality check is expected with the release of today’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
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US forces reportedly killed numerous Russian mercenaries in Syria last week: Bloomberg
US intelligence warns of potential Russian interference in the November elections: Reuters
Cleveland Fed President Mester is a candidate for the Fed’s vice chair post: WSJ
US small business optimism increased more than expected in January: Bloomberg
Are Wall Street’s inflation worries excessive? MarketWatch
Japan is experiencing its longest expansion since the 1980s: Reuters
California’s economy is booming but is also bracing for the next recession: NY Times
Weak recovery attributed to low productivity growth and declining labor participation: SF Fed
The recent uptick in volatility in the stock market has tempered the momentum factor’s remarkable bull run; nevertheless, this strategy continues to outperform its key competitors in the US equity factor space, as evidenced by a selection of proxy ETFs.
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Trump’s infrastructure plan garners mixed responses in Congress: The Hill
The White House budget anticipates significant increases in the federal deficit: NY Times
China may implement anti-dumping duties amidst trade tensions: AP
Could US economic growth mitigate the risk of a bear market in stocks? Reuters
Market turmoil and fiscal policy prompt a shift towards broader international allocation: Reuters
The US Treasury reported a $49 billion budget surplus, slightly down from last year: MW
Goldman Sachs predicts a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.5%: Bloomberg
The 10-year yield continues to rise Monday, reaching 2.86%, a fresh four-year high:
Last week, red ink continued to pervade all major asset classes, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded products. These declines mark the second consecutive week of widespread selling.
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Trump is set to unveil a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan on Monday: Politico
The US budget director warns that interest rates may “spike” due to an increase in the budget deficit: Bloomberg
Vice President Pence raises the prospect of US-North Korea talks: Reuters
The White House is facing turmoil due to domestic abuse allegations involving staff: The Hill
Is the UK contemplating a second Brexit referendum? NY Times
US wholesale trade inventories increased more than anticipated in December: RTT
The Capital Group Chairman and CEO states that the return of volatility is healthy: Capital Group
The era of substantial US deficits has returned: NY Times
