In recent news, various developments concerning global trade and economic indicators have emerged.
- Trump forecasts that the US and China will discover a route to a trade agreement: Reuters
- China labels Trump’s trade war escalation a ‘strategic error’: SCMP
- The US and Japan have reached a preliminary agreement regarding a trade deal: Bloomberg
- How will US firms navigate the uncertainty arising from Trump’s trade policies? MW
- German business confidence has dampened, reaching a seven-year low in August: Reuters
- NY Fed’s Q3 GDP nowcast indicates a growth rate of +1.8%, slightly trailing Q2’s +2.1%: NY Fed
- New home sales in the US decreased in July, though June figures were significantly revised upward: Bloomberg
By Lawrence B. Glickman
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
Throughout the twentieth century, “free enterprise” has been a pivotal term in American politics, representing a principle that encourages limited government intervention in economic activities. Lawrence B. Glickman explores how this idea gained prominence in American thought and was espoused by critics of the New Deal. These politicians asserted that free enterprise epitomized a fundamental American principle, countering a liberalism they argued could lead to totalitarianism. By tracing the historical significance of free enterprise, Glickman reveals how it has shaped and restricted political discourse. His analysis provides a compelling insight into the intricate history and marketing of an idea that serves as the cornerstone of current resistance to government regulation, taxation, and programs like Medicare.
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The manufacturing industry continues to exert pressure on economic growth both in the US and globally. However, consumer spending and the service sector have been steady pillars. Recent survey data for August indicates potential vulnerabilities within the service sector. The ongoing weakness in both manufacturing and services poses the most significant challenge to the economy since the expansion began a decade ago.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s upcoming speech is anticipated to receive extensive scrutiny: Reuters
Global manufacturing activity continues to decline: WSJ
Will the G7 nations join forces to tackle the slowing global economy? Bloomberg
Is the Trump administration planning a new tax cut? WSJ
US Leading Economic Index saw a 0.5% increase in July: CB
The US job market remains stable, as shown by recent jobless claims: CNBC
Economic growth in the US has weakened according to August’s PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Currently, the market’s evolution appears slow and steady. A year ago, a survey of the ETF landscape revealed similar characteristics as it does now. The lowest price tiers continue to be dominated by commodities and certain energy stocks. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose!
The implications could be severe if a trade war were to erupt between the US and Eurozone: CNBC
What alternatives do policymakers have to stimulate US growth? WSJ
Concerns rise among German manufacturers about an impending recession: Bloomberg
Japan’s economy registered its highest growth in eight months this August: IHS Markit
The G7 summit is expected to conclude without a joint statement: CNBC
The Federal Reserve’s minutes indicate discussions regarding more aggressive rate cuts: Reuters
US existing home sales showed a stronger-than-expected increase in July: CNBC
The Eurozone’s PMI indicates that economic growth remains sluggish as of August: IHS Markit
For those curious about the outperformance of certain US equity strategies this year, it seems likely that an overemphasis on technology and real estate sectors has been the winning formula. Conversely, underperforming strategies may be attributable to reduced exposure to these sectors.
Trump is contemplating a payroll tax reduction: CNBC
Trump cancels his trip to Denmark, stating Greenland is not for sale: CNN
Trump assures the NRA that there are no plans for background checks on firearms: WaPo
No progress on Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union: BBC
China confirms the detention of a British consular worker in Hong Kong: CNN
Russia claims it is not obligated to share details about a nuclear incident: ABC
The UK budget deficit has surged in preparation for the forthcoming Brexit deadline: Bloomberg
US companies are buying back shares at the slowest rate seen in the past 18 months: WSJ
US commercial & industrial loans: Growth over the past year has slowed to a nine-month low as of July.
Recent predictions of a recession have been rising, primarily influenced by inverted yield curves. Nevertheless, a comprehensive analysis of the overall data suggests that a downturn may not be imminent. While US economic growth is currently sluggish and could trend slower in the upcoming months, the short-term outlook still leans toward expansion.
The Trump administration is exploring new policies to stimulate the economy: NY Times
A White House representative states that a payroll tax reduction is not under consideration: CNBC
Several states are preparing to initiate an antitrust investigation into major tech firms: WSJ
A UK consulate worker has reportedly been detained in China: Bloomberg
Pimco warns that a breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations could lead to a significant rise in yields: FT
Eurozone inflation has slowed to a 1.0% annual rate in July, marking the lowest in two years: MW
The 10yr/2yr yield curve remains at a mildly positive spread for the second consecutive day after an inversion:
