What should you anticipate from equity factor ETFs? Numerous research studies advocate for multi-factor exposure to enhance risk-adjusted returns within a US equity allocation. Central to this proposition is the notion that various factors exhibit minimal correlation with each other. Value operates independently of momentum, which in turn is relatively disconnected from the low-volatility factor, and so forth.
Republicans criticize Trump’s proposal to withdraw troops from Syria: WSJ
US imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, casting doubt on forthcoming trade discussions: Reuters
Johnson’s government braces for failure in Brexit negotiations: BBG
N. Korea demands ‘significant concessions’ from the US in nuclear discussions: CNBC
US federal debt reaches a seven-year high as a percentage of GDP: The Hill
German industrial output increased in August, yet the annual trend remains significantly negative: BBG
Is the impeachment effort improving the chances for a NAFTA trade agreement? NY Times
US consumer credit growth rate declined in August: MW
China’s gold reserves have surged in 2019: Bloomberg
After a stagnant month, emerging-market bonds became vibrant during the first week of October trading. This segment of global fixed-income securities recorded the highest gains last week compared to other major asset classes, based on a selection of exchange-traded funds.
US troops initiate withdrawal from Syria following Trump’s discussion with Erdogan: NY Times
China narrows the agenda for upcoming trade negotiations with the US: MW
A second whistleblower raises the impeachment stakes for Trump: AP
Republicans rally around Trump as the Ukraine crisis intensifies: Politico
Esther George from the Fed suggests no need for further rate cuts: Fox
United Auto Workers claim GM talks have taken a negative turn: CNBC
US payrolls experienced modest growth in September, with the jobless rate dropping to a 50-year low: CNBC
German industrial orders fell in August, signaling more recession concerns: Reuters
The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast dropped to a three-year low last week:
By Rupal J. Bhansali
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
In an era where many declare the decline of active investing, Rupal J. Bhansali, a global contrarian, calls for its revival. Non-consensus thinking has led to remarkable breakthroughs in various fields such as science, sports, and technology. Bhansali demonstrates how to incorporate this mindset into investing to enhance the likelihood of achieving superior returns while managing risks. Her distinctive investment strategy emphasizes avoiding poor investments over selecting winners, posing essential questions, and seeking unexpected successes to maximize the value of research efforts.
The US experienced a modest increase of 114,000 private payrolls in September, slightly lower than the upwardly revised gain of 122,000 in the prior month, as reported by the Labor Department reports. This latest hiring data is sufficient to alleviate concerns about an impending recession, though it raises questions about the economy’s trajectory for the fourth quarter.
The pressing question in today’s economy is when resilience might yield to political realities. The answer will likely remain unclear for several weeks, if not months. Current indicators suggest that economic output has recently slowed and may continue to decline. Identifying the precise moment of contraction can only be confirmed retrospectively. Presently, it is evident that the risk of a recession has risen, although a slow-growth scenario seems to be the most probable path for the foreseeable future. What events might tip this trend into a downturn? Here are some relevant indicators for consideration.
Forecasts predict moderately stronger job growth in today’s September payroll report: Reuters
Fed Vice Chairman Clarida assures that the labor market is “very healthy”: Reuters
The Federal Reserve feels increasing pressure to initiate another rate cut: Bloomberg
Global growth seemed to slow in September, nearing stagnation according to PMI data: IHS Markit
Factory orders in the US dipped slightly in August: Reuters
US jobless claims have risen but still reflect a low rate of layoffs: MW
Job cuts in the US decreased by 22% in September compared to the previous month: CG&C
US Services PMI indicates virtually stagnant business activity in September: IHS Markit
The ISM’s US services sector weakened in September, falling to a three-year low: ISM
At what point does economic resilience succumb to political realities? The answer remains uncertain, but the Trump administration persists with its trade war strategy, leading to increasing macroeconomic repercussions. To be clear, the US economy continues to grow at a modest rate, and the risk of recession appears low in the near term. However, investors are becoming increasingly aware that the White House’s trade policies, if left unaltered, may become a significant trigger for the nation’s first recession in a decade.
The US plans to impose tariffs on European goods following a WTO ruling: WSJ
Trade concerns are impacting stock markets: Reuters
N. Korea claims to have tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile: CNBC
Does the US-China trade war pose a threat to US manufacturing jobs? Axios
PMI survey indicates that the Eurozone economy is nearly stagnant as of September: IHS Markit
Germany’s economy shows contraction as evidenced by September PMI data: IHS Markit
US job growth for September (based on ADP data) slows to an eight-year low for annual change:
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