Current Events and Economic Insights
Today, the House is poised to announce articles of impeachment against President Trump: USA Today
Meanwhile, discussions between the White House and House representatives are ongoing regarding a deal on the North American trade agreement: The Hill
Although there has been no indication of a US-China trade deal yet, China has increased its purchases of US-grown soybeans: CNBC
In the UK, the upcoming election may serve as a harbinger for Trump’s 2020 prospects: BBC
Furthermore, the UK’s economy stagnated in October: Bloomberg
In diplomatic news, Ukraine’s Zelensky and Russia’s Putin discuss potential peace processes: CNN
Reports indicate that China has banned foreign computers in certain sectors: CNBC
Lastly, the demand for college-educated workers in the US manufacturing sector continues to rise: WSJ
Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index has experienced a significant increase in December: ZEW
Breaking a three-week losing streak, broadly defined commodities topped last week’s returns among the major asset classes, according to a selection of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Except for US bonds and real estate investment trusts (REITs), all primary segments of global markets recorded gains during the trading week ending on Friday, December 6.
Will new US tariffs on Chinese goods be implemented next week? WSJ
November saw a significant surge in US payrolls: CNBC
AQR’s research indicates that true alpha remains elusive in active bond strategies: InstInv
Jobs of the future are increasingly concentrated in a small number of US cities: Reuters
The US Consumer Sentiment Index has reached a 7-month high in December: Bloomberg
In October, consumer credit expanded at the second-strongest monthly rate this year: MW
The World Trade Organization may be facing its end: NY Times
German exports increased in October, defying global trade tensions: BT
Are foreign stocks in a position to outperform US equities? CNBC
By Laurence B. Siegel
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Many people are apprehensive about the future. Is this fear warranted, or should we embrace the prospect of greater prosperity and advancement? Despite perceptions of stagnant economic growth, environmental challenges, dwindling natural resources, and unsustainable population growth, Siegel’s work challenges the narrative of doom. In “Fewer, Richer, Greener,” he argues that improvements across various dimensions are occurring and will continue. This engaging and insightful book instills gratitude for the present and optimism for the promising future ahead.
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US companies hired significantly more workers than anticipated in November, leading to a positive shift in economic sentiment. The increase of 254,000 in private payrolls is the highest since January. This robust growth is noteworthy; however, a deeper analysis reveals that the slow-growth trend persists despite the optimism surrounding the latest employment figures.
With each passing month, the current US economic expansion marks a new record for duration (125 months and counting through November). While this is certainly a positive milestone, some analysts view it as a potential warning. Expansions, much like dairy products and airline tickets, have a finite shelf life. However, evidence supporting this perspective is scant, especially in the post-World War Two era. While recession risks are not nonexistent, expecting one simply because the expansion has lasted longer is largely based on myth rather than reality.
The House prepares to draft articles of impeachment against Trump: Reuters
North Korea reacts sharply to Trump’s comments at NATO: USA Today
OPEC and Russia are discussing further oil production cuts: CNBC
Germany’s industrial recession has intensified in October: FT
As we look forward to today’s November employment report: NY Times
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has increased Q4 GDP growth estimate to +1.5%: AF
The US trade deficit shrank to a 16-month low in October due to falling Chinese imports: MW
US factory orders rebounded in October following two months of declines: Reuters
Job cuts in the US dropped 13% year-over-year through November: CG&C
Finally, US jobless claims fell to a 7-month low last week: CNBC
The outlook for the US economy seems to fluctuate depending on the employment indicators available. Recent findings from the ADP Employment Report for November appear to lean toward a more negative interpretation.
China insists on reducing US tariffs before it will agree to a trade deal: Reuters
The US is contemplating the deployment of more troops to the Middle East to counter Iran: WSJ
Reports indicate that Iran has secretly moved missiles into Iraq: NY Times
Eurozone retail sales experienced a greater decline than anticipated in October: MW
Japan is preparing an economic stimulus program valued at $120 billion: Reuters
Although global economic growth remains sluggish, there was a slight acceleration in November: IHS Markit
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates that the US services sector has slowed more than predicted: CNBC
The Services PMI for the US reflects modest growth in November: IHS Markit
US private employment growth has decreased sharply in November: MW
Volatility has returned to the stock market this week after a period of relative stability. Unsurprisingly, the sharp sell-off on Monday and Tuesday has shifted the dynamics concerning key equity factors. Currently, the quality factor remains the last one outperforming the broader market year to date, based on various exchange-traded funds.
