Last week marked a noticeable upswing in emerging markets shares, reaching the highest gains among major asset classes within the five trading days leading up to December 13. This increase was evidenced by data from a variety of US-listed exchange-traded funds.
Several crucial details surrounding the US-China trade agreement remain ambiguous: CNBC
Protests escalate across India in response to the new citizenship law: CNN
A retrospective on why economists misinterpreted the last decade: WSJ
Stagnation persists in the Eurozone economy as of December: IHS Markit
Germany’s factory recession shows no signs of recovery: Bloomberg
The UK economy experiences another contraction according to December PMI data: IHS Markit
U.S. business inventories rose in October, enhancing the Q4 growth outlook: Reuters
Oil prices lifted U.S. import-price inflation in November: MW
U.S. retail spending growth slowed in November, although the annual trend showed a slight uptick:
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This year, many economic analysts were predicting an impending recession in the U.S. However, the economy has managed to continue its expansion, albeit at a slower rate. As a result, many of the dire predictions have not materialized — a common pattern seen in recent years. The ongoing issue tends to stem from flawed business-cycle analytics.
Trump approves a partial trade agreement with China: WSJ
China’s foreign ministry expresses cautious support for the trade deal: SCMP
Vote on impeachment articles is abruptly postponed: The Hill
UK’s Johnson achieves a substantial majority, improving Brexit odds: BBC
Experts ponder whether the Fed will lower rates again in 2020: CNN
Today’s U.S. retail sales report for November is predicted to indicate slightly stronger annual growth
U.S. wholesale inflation remains subdued in November, suggesting weak pricing pressure: CNBC
However, U.S. jobless claims surged last week, hitting a two-year high: MW
As concerns rise regarding a potential economic downturn in 2020, some analysts are adopting a more optimistic perspective, predicting that economic activity may rebound in the new year. Naturally, various caveats apply when forecasting the future. However, it is worth testing this view against solid data and a collection of combination forecasts to assess whether the optimism is warranted. Preliminary findings suggest that while it may be too early to dismiss the possibility of stronger growth next year, The Capital Spectator posits that growth is likely to stabilize at a modest pace in the near term.
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The House is preparing for a vote on Trump’s impeachment: Reuters
Here’s the forecast for today’s inaugural policy meeting under the new ECB leadership: MW
The UK holds its general election today, marking the third within less than five years: BBC
A Wharton study reveals that Warren’s proposed wealth tax will generate $1 trillion less than anticipated: CNBC
The Fed has opted to keep interest rates steady in today’s policy meeting: NY Times
Fed projections continue to indicate slow or slowing growth: Fed
The black-swan index signals caution for stocks: Reuters
Industrial production in the Eurozone decreased in October: Reuters
BCA predicts no signs of a recession looming for the U.S.: MW
The Atlanta Fed’s business inflation expectations remain steady at +1.9% for December: AF
U.S. consumer inflation ticks up to a 12-month high: MW
In the world of stock markets, technology shares have undoubtedly outpaced other sectors this year, as evidenced by various exchange-traded funds. Unless a significant shift occurs in the closing weeks of December, it appears that tech stocks will finish 2019 with remarkable gains.
House Democrats have introduced two articles of impeachment against Trump: The Hill
Democrats have unveiled the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement: CNN
The Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady in today’s meeting: Reuters
China anticipates that the U.S. will delay the proposed tariff hike of December 15: Bloomberg
A U.S. judge has ruled that Trump cannot use military funds for the border wall: LA Times
Shares of Saudi Aramco — the largest IPO ever — soared on their first trading day: CNBC
U.S. economic productivity declined in Q3 — the first drop since 2015: MW
Optimism among U.S. small businesses spiked in November: NFIB
The latest estimates indicate that economic activity in the fourth quarter has increased slightly, according to the median results of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Although output is still predicted to slow compared to previous quarters, recent data suggests a modest uptick.
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