The Global Market Index (GMI) is projected to achieve an annualized risk premium of 4.5% over the long term according to the latest estimates, excluding the “risk-free” rate. This revision marks a decrease from last month’s forecast of 5.0%, while remaining unchanged from the estimate provided a year ago.
World finance officials are assessing the economic response to the coronavirus: Reuters
The top three central banks globally appear ready to respond to the crisis: Reuters
World Health Organization’s leader states we are in “uncharted territory”: CNN
The global manufacturing sector fell sharply into recession in February: IHS Markit
US construction spending surged to a record high in January: AP
The US Manufacturing PMI showed modest growth but a decline in February: IHS Markit
U.S. manufacturing barely expanded in February according to ISM survey data: ISM
February proved challenging for nearly all major asset classes, primarily due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus. The only exceptions were investment-grade US bonds, US inflation-indexed government bonds, and cash, while most markets experienced significant losses.
The OECD warns that Covid-19 poses the most significant threat to the global economy since the financial crisis: OECD
Calm appears to be returning to Asian markets as of Monday: Reuters
The conflict in Syria escalates, with Turkey responding to an attack with drone strikes: BBC
Greece terminates asylum as migrants gather at its border with Turkey: NY Times
North Korea launches two missiles into the Sea of Japan: CNN
The US and Taliban sign a deal to end the 18-year war in Afghanistan: BBC
Caixin China’s General Manufacturing PMI plummets in February: IHS Markit
While the Eurozone’s manufacturing recession eased in February, Covid-19 continues to impact its outlook: IHS Markit
US consumer spending showed signs of a slowdown in January: Reuters
The US Consumer Sentiment Index rose in February, nearing a post-recession high: UoM
The Chicago PMI inched up in February but remained below the neutral mark of 50: Chicago PMI
Analyzing last week’s stock market losses in comparison to previous declines over five days: CNBC
By Toni Gilpin
Summary via publisher (Haymarket Books)
This comprehensive history explores the intense and longstanding conflict between the industrial giant International Harvester and the remarkably radical Farm Equipment Workers union. “The Long Deep Grudge” illustrates how class warfare has been a crucial component of the American experience, offering insights from both sides of the divide. While International Harvester and the influential McCormick family were known for their union-busting efforts in the late 19th century, they also introduced sophisticated techniques for avoiding unionization that have since become standard business practices. In contrast, the militant Farm Equipment Workers union, linked to the Communist Party, fiercely challenged the cooperative ethos that defined the American labor movement following World War II.
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To the casual observer, the stock market’s rapid downturn may seem chaotic. Just last week, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, but within six trading days, it plummeted 12% (as of February 27), marking the swiftest correction for a decline exceeding 10% on record. However, instead of succumbing to recency bias, let’s explore whether there’s a rationale behind these market movements.
The World Health Organization indicates that the coronavirus outbreak is at a “decisive point”: BBC
Global markets are poised for the worst week since the financial crisis: CNBC
A profile of stock market corrections since World War II: CNBC
Dozens of Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria by a missile strike: NY Times
Turkey will no longer prevent Syrian refugees from reaching Europe: Reuters
The Philly Fed’s ADS business cycle index continues to reflect modest growth: PF
Revisions to Q4 GDP in the US remain unchanged at +2.1%: Reuters
US durable goods orders dipped in January: MW
US jobless claims increased last week but remain close to historic lows: CNBC
The global economy is on track for its worst year since the financial crisis: BBG
Healthcare risks are not usually at the forefront of economic analysis, but the emergence of coronavirus (Covid-19) has shifted this focus. Covid-19 is now a pivotal factor for modeling both the short-term macroeconomic outlook in the United States and globally. At some point, this situation will stabilize, and a more “normal” economic environment will return. In the meantime, the uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 is complicating traditional macroeconomic modeling efforts. With this in mind, CapitalSpectator.com is launching a preliminary and evolving effort to project the near-term trajectory of cumulative reported Covid-19 cases worldwide using a proprietary econometric forecasting methodology.
Governments around the world are adopting more aggressive measures to combat the coronavirus: Reuters
President Trump has appointed Vice President Mike Pence to lead the US coronavirus response: USA Today
The first US coronavirus case reported that cannot be traced back to international travel: NY Times
New cases of coronavirus reported in South Korea surpass those in China for the first time: SCMP
US-South Korea military drills postponed due to the coronavirus: Reuters
Is this stock market selloff merely the beginning? Bloomberg
Eurozone economic sentiment sees an uptick in February, marking the fourth month of improvement: EC
New US home sales reached a 13-year high in January: Bloomberg
The impact of the coronavirus is affecting economic forecasts worldwide, and it is likely that the United States will eventually experience some repercussions. However, the extent of this macroeconomic toll remains uncertain for now. As a baseline, we can track the evolution of first-quarter nowcasting as it progresses in the coming days and weeks. Recently, the data indicates a slight moderation in output growth for Q1 compared to the previous quarter.
