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The Capital Spectator: Insights on Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics

Money for Nothing: The Scientists, Fraudsters, and Corrupt Politicians Who Reinvented Money, Panicked a Nation, and Made the World Rich
Thomas Levenson
Summary via publisher (Penguin Random House)
“Money for Nothing” explores the intersection of war needs, philosophical discoveries, and investor ambitions. It narrates how the Scientific Revolution intertwined with financial systems, steering England—and indeed the globe—into uncharted territories. However, unlike the precise methods of scientific inquiry, this financial transformation was marked by extensive experimentation, often with shocking repercussions for everyday lives. As England engaged in wartime efforts and faced financial demands, opportunistic “stock-jobbers” emerged, hinting at a financial landscape that could either rescue or bankrupt the nation.

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Inflation expectations are fluctuating based on the segment of the Treasury market being analyzed, with some indicators suggesting a recovery while others signal a slowing economy. One of these forecasts may be misleading or less effective in predicting future macroeconomic risks. A rise in inflation combined with weak economic growth could occur, reminiscent of the stagflation experienced in the 1970s. However, the factors contributing to that situation have yet to resurface, making it unclear which scenario holds more weight moving forward.

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Biden has secured the Democratic nomination, promising to guide the nation out of darkness: WSJ
Allies have turned down the U.S. request to reinstate sanctions on Iran: CNN
The chief negotiator for the EU stated that a Brexit agreement seems unlikely at this stage: BBG
UK retail sales saw growth in July, surpassing pre-Covid-19 levels: Reuters
Economic recovery in the Eurozone slowed in August according to PMI data: IHS Markit
Japan continues to encounter a steep economic downturn in August, per PMI surveys: IHS Markit
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index indicates that growth in the sector is slowing in August: Mstar
Jobless claims in the U.S. have risen more than anticipated last week: CNBC

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing trend favoring high-growth investments have posed challenges for value investing strategies. Nonetheless, the turbulence of 2020 might set the stage for a resurgence in deeply undervalued assets and asset classes. While recent years have been challenging for value investments, indicating a potentially bleak outlook, the opportunity remains for those willing to seek out neglected assets.

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The Commerce Ministry of China has announced that trade discussions between the U.S. and China will take place soon: CNBC
The Federal Reserve’s minutes show a lower economic growth outlook for the rest of 2020: MW
Major retailers, including Target and Walmart, have experienced a surge in earnings: NYT
Are U.S. stocks becoming increasingly susceptible to currency risk? BBG
Apple has become the first company to reach a $2 trillion market capitalization: CNET
The 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield curve remains stable, closing at 0.58% on Wednesday:

The U.S. stock market fully recovered from its coronavirus-related losses on August 18, marking a swift rebound from a significant downturn. As reported by Reuters, this year’s drop ranks as the briefest bear market in history. Nevertheless, examining the market by sector reveals a complex landscape, with varied outcomes across different areas.

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Democrats have nominated Biden to face Trump in the presidential election: AP
Both Democratic and Republican leaders are seeking opportunities in stimulus negotiations: BBG
Trump announced that he has canceled trade discussions with China: SCMP
The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) reached a record high on Tuesday: NYT
The S&P 500 rebounds from the shortest bear market on record: Reuters
A Bank of America survey indicates that fund managers believe a new bull market has begun: II
Despite the pandemic, UK inflation has risen to its highest level since March: Reuters
Japan sees a significant decline in exports as a result of the coronavirus: BC
U.S. housing construction surged in July, continuing its recovery: BBG

Data suggest that the unprecedented drop in U.S. economic output during the second quarter is anticipated to recover less than half of the losses in the third quarter, as indicated by various GDP forecasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. While these estimates are susceptible to the considerable uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus’s trajectory in the coming weeks, current indicators lean toward a partial economic resurgence.

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California has experienced its first rolling blackouts in nearly twenty years: Politico
China claims U.S. actions are harming global trade with Huawei sanctions: BC
Gold has regained levels above $2000 per ounce amid escalating U.S.-China tensions: BBG
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, has reported significant losses in the first half of the year: CNBC
The recession is beginning to impact U.S. cities: NYT
Retail giant Marks & Spencer announces plans to cut 7,000 jobs due to the latest shifts from the pandemic: MW
The NY Fed Manufacturing Index indicates a notable slowdown in sector growth for August: Mstar
Despite the uncertainty, U.S. homebuilder sentiment surged in August, reaching a record high: CNBC

Throughout the trading week ending August 14, equities in developed markets outside the United States led major asset classes in returns, primarily driven by exchange-traded funds. Following closely were real estate shares listed internationally.
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This collection of articles provides insight into the current financial landscape, the ongoing challenges stemming from the pandemic, and shifts within political motivations. Awareness of these trends can aid investors and analysts as they navigate the unpredictable markets ahead.

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