In recent economic developments, significant updates are emerging, indicating shifts in both the domestic and global landscapes.
- * Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan is poised to become law this week.
- * Will the US economic recovery lead to potential imbalances in the global economy?
- * Rising home prices are raising concerns among policymakers.
- * Increasing oil prices may threaten the global economic bounce back.
- * The CDC has relaxed guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals.
- * New Covid-19 fatalities in the US have dropped below 1,000 for the second consecutive day, marking a four-month low.
- * The Eurozone’s economic contraction was greater than previously estimated in Q4 of 2020.
- * German exports increased unexpectedly in January.
- * The yield on the 10-year Treasury note continues to rise, now reaching 1.59%:
The past week saw varied performance across asset classes, with stocks in developed nations outside the US showing notably strong results for trading through Friday, March 5, based on a range of proxy ETFs that track the major asset classes.
Key updates from the economic front include:
- * The Covid-19 aid bill advances to the House following Senate approval.
- * Democrats anticipate the Covid-19 aid bill will pass easily in the House.
- * The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.6% in early Monday trading.
- * A cyberattack on Microsoft’s email system is growing into a global crisis.
- * Will central banks continue to provide monetary support as growth resumes?
- * Crude oil prices have risen above $70 per barrel for the first time in a year due to an attack on a Saudi facility.
- * US job growth surged in February, surpassing expectations significantly.
- * The Fed appears unconcerned about inflation. What could go wrong?
- * The US Dollar Index has increased to its highest level since late November.
Global markets displayed a varied mixture of gains and losses last week, yet our two proprietary strategies remained largely stable. Their performance trailed slightly behind the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which registered a marginal increase of 0.1% for the week ending Friday, March 5. Given the recent volatility in risk assets, maintaining stability is acceptable at this time.
In this edition:
- Mixed outcomes for asset classes as interest rates continue their upward trend
- Global strategy benchmarks show slight recovery
It is uncommon for the head of the world’s leading central bank to acknowledge rising inflation while simultaneously pledging not to take immediate action. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered this message, affirming a commitment to sustaining lower interest rates despite increasing inflation expectations.
Recent news highlights include:
- * Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is up for a Senate vote this weekend.
- * A crisis is escalating at the US southern border due to rising migrant crossings.
- * The UN Security Council is set to meet regarding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.
- * China is expected to dismantle the last remnants of democracy in Hong Kong.
- * The Chinese government has set a target of 6% economic growth for 2021.
- * Nationalistic policies threaten commodity supplies in resource-rich nations.
- * Italy has blocked vaccine exports to Australia.
- * Fed Chairman Powell has indicated that “we’ll see inflation rise,” while reaffirming support for relaxed monetary policies.
- * The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 1.5% following Powell’s remarks on the topic.
- * US factory orders increased more than anticipated in January.
- * Jobless claims in the US continue to rise in the past week:
Recent GDP projections for the first quarter in the US indicate a strong acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter’s increase, based on new nowcasts. Additionally, survey data reflecting economic expectations suggest an uptick in projected output for the upcoming Q1 GDP report, set to be released next month.
Highlights from the latest news include:
- * The House canceled its Thursday session due to threats of a potential militia attack.
- * Will Congress devise a relief plan for city budgets impacted by the pandemic?
- * Analysts anticipate OPEC will reverse oil production cuts.
- * Global growth increased in February, reaching a four-month high.
- * US businesses exhibit optimism about the economy, as the Fed Beige Book reports.
- * The US Composite PMI (a GDP indicator) surged to a seven-year high in February.
- * Growth in the US services sector slowed to its slowest pace since May, according to ISM data. However…
- * The Services PMI from IHS Markit reveals a stronger trajectory in February.
- * US job growth decelerated more than anticipated in February, based on ADP data:
