Key Highlights from Recent Studies and Economic Updates:
- * New research indicates that infections from the Omicron variant seem to result in milder illness.
- * President Biden announces his intention to seek re-election.
- * Russia and Ukraine renew a ceasefire agreement established in 2020 in eastern Ukraine.
- * Intelligence reports reveal that Saudi Arabia is developing ballistic missiles with support from China, according to new insights.
- * Economist Larry Summers warns that efforts to lower inflation may increase the risk of a recession.
- * The Chinese yuan is starting to exert a greater impact on emerging market currencies.
- * US GDP growth for the third quarter has been revised upward, showing modest improvement.
- * In November, sales of existing homes continued to rise in the United States.
- * The growth of the US economy remained moderate in November, as reported by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
- * Consumer confidence in the US increased in December, reaching the highest level since July.
As we near the end of 2021, the world’s largest economy continues to present promising economic data. However, signs are emerging that growth may face challenges in the upcoming year.
* President Biden announced that the government will distribute 500 million free COVID home-testing kits.
* President Putin issues warnings regarding a potential military response to perceived NATO pressures.
* Moderna’s CEO stated that the company could produce an Omicron-specific booster in a few weeks.
* Israel has begun administering a fourth dose of the COVID vaccine.
* According to the CDC, US life expectancy dropped by 1.8 years in 2020, as reported by statistics.
* Shipping giant Maersk is poised to acquire Hong Kong-based LF Logistics.
* The US current account deficit has reached its largest gap in 15 years in the third quarter:
The mechanics of bitcoin are often debated. Some view it as a digital-age store of value, while others argue it is the greatest Ponzi scheme of our time. While narratives can be captivating, there’s a deeper question: Can we accurately quantify bitcoin’s risk betas? Let’s explore this through a series of factor-analysis tests.
* The CDC confirms that the Omicron variant is now the dominant strain of coronavirus in the US, according to their report.
* The Omicron variant is expected to slow global economic growth by half in the fourth quarter compared to the third.
* Global merger and acquisition activity surged to a record $5 trillion-plus in 2021.
* Companies are set to install unprecedented amounts of batteries on the US electric grid this year.
* Senator Manchin’s opposition to the Build Back Better Act stems from various factors, including coal, which is a key consideration.
* The US Leading Economic Index rose sharply in November, indicating an upbeat outlook.
Throughout the past week, US real estate and fixed securities demonstrated notable diversification benefits during the extensive selling that affected many markets globally, as evidenced by a set of ETFs up to last Friday’s close (December 17).
The future of the Build Back Better Act remains uncertain following Senator Manchin’s withdrawal of support.
Goldman Sachs has revised its US growth outlook downward following Manchin’s rejection of the Build Back Better proposal.
The Omicron variant is now spreading rapidly worldwide, as noted by the White House’s chief medical advisor.
Moderna has reported that its booster significantly increases antibodies against the Omicron strain.
Turkey’s financial turmoil is raising concerns for stability in Europe.
Central banks are increasingly worried that Omicron could lead to prolonged inflation, according to recent reports.
China’s central bank has lowered a benchmark lending rate for the first time since April 2020.
US 10-year Treasury yields began the week near a three-month low:
Edited by Youssef Cassis and Catherine R. Schenk
Summary via publisher (Oxford U. Press)
This book examines the relationship individuals have with past financial crises, drawing insights from public opinion, business leaders, and policymakers. It addresses three core questions: Are financial crises remembered, and if so, how? What lessons have been derived from prior crises? Lastly, are past experiences applied in making decisions during new crises? These interconnected inquiries are approached from varied historical perspectives and methodologies across different academic fields, aiming to enhance our understanding of how memory and learning from financial crises interact and how financial institutions utilize lessons from the past.
In the previous two articles in this series (see here and here), we explored fundamental applications for identifying outliers in data sets, which is crucial for analyzing financial and economic time series. Let’s continue our exploration by examining another tool: the Hampel filter, a methodology designed to detect extreme values in data sets.
* The Build Back Better spending bill’s timeline is shifting as President Biden indicates it may be postponed until next year.
* Central banks are increasingly viewing inflation as a greater threat compared to the Omicron variant.
* The Bank of England has become the first major central bank to increase interest rates during the pandemic.
* According to PMI survey data, the US economy remains strong in December, confirming resilience.
* US industrial production rose by 0.5% in November.
* Jobless claims have increased
slightly last week, but they remain near historically low levels.
* Housing starts in the US exceeded forecasts in November, reaching an eight-month high:
An overview of various significant updates and analyses highlights the complexities and dynamics of current global events and economic trends. As we look ahead, monitoring these developments will be essential for understanding potential challenges and opportunities that lie in the future.
