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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/war.01feb2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-21547 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/war.01feb2024.png" alt="" width="154" height="232" /></a> ● <a href="https://amzn.to/47ZNc2J">The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives</a><br/>Ernest Scheyder<br/><strong><a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2023-4-november-december/books/mineral-mining-can-we-sustainably-source-ernest-scheyder">Review</a> via Sierra</strong><br/>The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources demands a substantial increase in the extraction of various metals. Global lithium and graphite production—key components for electric vehicle batteries—must rise by an astonishing 4,000 percent by 2040 to adhere to the Paris Agreement's climate objectives. Technologies harnessing the power of wind and solar also rely heavily on metals, including well-known ones like copper and lesser-known elements like neodymium, promethium, samarium, and europium.<br/>To obtain these essential metals, mining is inevitable. Yet, this presents a dilemma. As Ernest Scheyder points out in *The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives* (One Signal/Atria, 2024), “Mines that environmentalists oppose in the short term are paradoxically crucial to combating climate change in the long run.” He emphasizes that “recycling alone cannot fulfill the material requirements essential for a global transition to green energy.”</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-february-2024/#more-21535" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-february-2024/" title="4:03 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-02-03T04:03:00-05:00">February 3, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) saw a continued decline in January, falling to an annualized total return of 6.6%, according to the average of three forecasting models discussed below. GMI represents a market-value-weighted portfolio that encompasses all major asset classes, excluding cash, through a series of ETF proxies. This revised estimate indicates yet another slight reduction compared to last month’s projection.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-february-2024/#more-21553" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-february-2024/" title="7:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-02-02T07:18:36-05:00">February 2, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* Global manufacturing sentiment <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/worldwide-manufacturing-confidence-improves-as-factories-shrug-off-red-sea-concerns-Feb24.html">improves</a> in January<br/>* Strong earnings from major tech companies <a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/World+markets+cheer+bumper+tech+earnings+as+US+jobs+report+looms/22711044.html">boost</a> markets in early Friday trading<br/>* The IMF <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/imf-expects-new-housing-demand-in-china-to-drop-by-around-50-in-the-next-decade/5098646/">forecasts</a> a 50% decline in housing demand in China over the next decade<br/>* US jobless claims, despite remaining low, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b5e0c38e5c686b37595a3b8b89900144">rise</a> to an 11-week high<br/>* Job cuts in the US surged to a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-cuts-more-double-123210455.html">10-month high</a> in January<br/>* US construction spending <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3421288/u-s-construction-spending-climbs-much-more-than-expected-in-december.aspx">exceeded</a> expectations significantly<br/>* ISM Manufacturing Index <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/us-factory-gauge-climbs-to-highest-since-2022-on-orders-growth">climbs</a> to its highest point in 15 months in January:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ism1.02feb2024.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21551" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ism1.02feb2024.png" alt="" width="1200" height="675" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-february-2024/#more-21550" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-february-2024/" title="6:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-02-02T06:42:55-05:00">February 2, 2024</time></a>
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<p>Global markets experienced mixed results in January following a robust finish in 2023 that buoyed nearly all sectors. Commodities rebounded last month, becoming the top performers among major asset classes, while property shares lagged behind, according to various ETF analyses.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-january-2024-performance-review/#more-21544" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-january-2024-performance-review/" title="7:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-02-01T07:14:35-05:00">February 1, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The Fed <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-rate-decision-january-2023.html">keeps interest rates steady</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5a182f1b-695e-4a55-ba78-6b46b0658f91">reduces expectations</a> for a March cut<br/>* The House <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-us-house-passes-the-bipartisan-tax-deal-to-expand-the-child-tax-credit-up-next-the-senate-013737690.html">approves</a> an $80 billion tax deal, now moving to the Senate<br/>* A <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ny-community-bancorp-flashes-560-005309222.html">warning</a> sign for regional banks emerges with NY Community Bancorp <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-puts-york-community-bancorp-010245478.html">downgrade</a><br/>* China's factory activity <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/caixin-pmi-chinas-factory-activity-expanded-in-january.html">grows</a> for the third consecutive month in January<br/>* Declining birthrates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/opinion/birth-rates-baby-bust.html">present challenges</a> worldwide<br/>* US companies <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3420687/u-s-private-sector-job-growth-slows-more-than-expected-in-january.aspx">created</a> fewer jobs than anticipated in January:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/adp.01feb2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21542" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/adp.01feb2024.png" alt="" width="700" height="500" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-1-february-2024/#more-21541" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-1-february-2024/" title="6:25 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-02-01T06:25:59-05:00">February 1, 2024</time></a>
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<p>Last week's <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate">news</a> concerning an unexpectedly strong growth in US economic output for the fourth quarter of 2023 raises questions about whether this trend will continue into this year's first quarter. Although it’s premature to draw definitive conclusions, CapitalSpectator.com’s initial median nowcast—which aggregates various independent forecasts—suggests that growth may soften relative to the previous peak observed in the robust third quarter.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/initial-median-q1-gdp-nowcast-for-us-indicates-softer-growth/#more-21538" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/initial-median-q1-gdp-nowcast-for-us-indicates-softer-growth/" title="7:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-01-31T07:34:40-05:00">January 31, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The Federal Reserve <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-is-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-wednesday-investors-will-be-probing-for-clues-of-future-cuts-110019429.html">maintains</a> its current interest rates today<br/>* The IMF <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/imf-ups-global-growth-forecast-on-us-resilience-china-policy-support.html">raises</a> its outlook for global economic growth, highlighting US resilience and Chinese stimulus measures<br/>* China's manufacturing sector <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/china-pmi-manufacturing-activity-shrank-for-4th-straight-month-in-january.html">contracts</a> for the fourth consecutive month in January<br/>* Chinese automobile exports <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/china-comes-just-shy-of-japan-as-the-worlds-largest-car-exporter.html">nearly match</a> Japan, currently the leading car exporter<br/>* US home prices <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-hit-a-new-high-in-november-case-shiller-says-679244e9">reach unprecedented levels</a> in November<br/>* The number of job openings in the US <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-december/index.html">unexpectedly rises</a> in December<br/>* US Consumer Confidence Index <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/consumer-confidence-hits-two-year-high">reaches</a> a two-year peak in January:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cci.31jan2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21536" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cci.31jan2024.png" alt="" width="3119" height="2262" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-31-january-2024/#more-21533" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-31-january-2024/" title="6:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-01-31T06:28:55-05:00">January 31, 2024</time></a>
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<p>While the world faces numerous concerning events, markets still exhibit a tendency to adopt a risk-on approach. There are exceptions, but various trends point towards a generally positive outlook based on several ETF pairs analyzed up until the market close on January 29.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-geopolitical-threats-markets-still-lean-into-risk-on/#more-21527" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-geopolitical-threats-markets-still-lean-into-risk-on/" title="8:04 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-01-30T08:04:42-05:00">January 30, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The US government is evaluating <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/jordan-drone-attack-iranian-backed-militia-us-response-393c49b2?mod=hp_lead_pos8">responses</a> to a recent Iranian-backed militia attack that resulted in casualties<br/>* Democratic lawmakers <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/warren-pushes-fed-chair-powell-to-cut-rates-ease-housing-pressure-.html">urge Fed Chairman Powell</a> to consider rate cuts, yet…<br/>* Is the economy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html">strong enough</a> to justify such reductions?<br/>* Eurozone's growth <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-just-dodges-recession-output-063000383.html">stagnates</a><br/>* Elon Musk <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68137046">announces</a> Neuralink has implanted a chip in a human brain<br/>* Regulatory challenges <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/amazon-terminates-irobot-deal-vacuum-maker-to-lay-off-31percent-of-staff.html">halt</a> Amazon's plan to acquire iRobot, the maker of Roomba<br/>* The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds is trading below 4.1% ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ten.yr_.30jan2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21526" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ten.yr_.30jan2024.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-30-january-2024/#more-21524" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-30-january-2024/" title="7:01 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-01-30T07:01:08-05:00">January 30, 2024</time></a>
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<p>January has seen most major asset classes start the year with notable losses. However, US stocks, commodities, and junk bonds have emerged as exceptions, managing to stay in the green during this period. Overall, the prevailing trend has been downward for the majority, as analyzed through a range of ETFs up until January 26.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/losses-prevail-for-major-asset-classes-in-january/#more-21522" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/losses-prevail-for-major-asset-classes-in-january/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-01-29T07:37:28-05:00">January 29, 2024</time></a>
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