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<p>The recent fluctuations in the stock market have resulted in two equity sectors shining this year: communications services and utilities, according to a collection of ETFs as of Monday's close (August 19). Other sectors are lagging behind the overall market, although they still exhibit positive returns.</p>
<p>Leading the pack in 2024 is the Communication Services ETF (XLC), which has gained 20.7%, slightly outperforming the US market's rise of 18.5%, as tracked by SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/are-utilities-the-new-must-own-equity-sector/#more-22691" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/are-utilities-the-new-must-own-equity-sector/" title="7:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-20T07:23:21-04:00">August 20, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* A Canadian rail strike could have economic <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/19/business/canada-rail-strike/index.html">repercussions for the U.S.</a><br/>* The hype around AI is <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/19/artificial-intelligence-is-losing-hype">diminishing</a> as investors express concerns about technology profits.<br/>* China has kept its key lending benchmark rates <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-leaves-key-lending-benchmarks-unchanged-expected-2024-08-20/">steady</a>.<br/>* U.S. consumer inflation expectations <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240812">sharply declined</a> for the medium term; however...<br/>* The NY Fed's survey reveals that workers are increasingly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/19/business/economy/fed-labor-jobs.html">concerned</a> about job security.<br/>* The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to <a href="https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-leading-economic-indicators-decline-further-in-july">decline as of July:</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/lei.20aug2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22689" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/lei.20aug2024.png" alt="" width="1208" height="906" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-august-2024/#more-22687" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-august-2024/" title="6:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-20T06:20:32-04:00">August 20, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The risk of a U.S. recession seems to have eased following encouraging reports on retail sales and jobless claims from last week. Will these more favorable figures delay the anticipated rate cut that the markets are projecting for the Federal Reserve's September 18 policy meeting?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-last-weeks-upbeat-economic-data-delay-rate-cuts/#more-22682" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-last-weeks-upbeat-economic-data-delay-rate-cuts/" title="7:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-19T07:29:19-04:00">August 19, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The Federal Reserve's <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-look-to-powells-jackson-hole-speech-for-clues-about-feds-first-cut-080008251.html">Jackson Hole Symposium</a> will be a focus for markets this week.<br/>* Goldman Sachs <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-us-recession-to-20percent-on-fresh-data.html">lowers</a> its odds of a U.S. recession to 20% after positive economic data.<br/>* Startup business failures <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2808ad4c-783f-4475-bcda-bddc0299095e">rise by 60%</a> compared to a year ago.<br/>* Gold <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/gold-prices-hit-new-record-with-fresh-highs-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision.html">trades</a> at all-time high, with analysts predicting further gains.<br/>* Trump's <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/donald-trump-tariff-trade-policy-election-2024-80907f85?mod=economy_lead_pos3">plan</a> to increase tariffs remains a significant market uncertainty.<br/>* U.S. consumer sentiment is <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">"essentially unchanged"</a> for the fourth consecutive month in August:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/sent.18aug2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22680" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/sent.18aug2024.png" alt="" width="832" height="554" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-august-2024/#more-22679" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-august-2024/" title="6:35 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-19T06:35:19-04:00">August 19, 2024</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/onedge.15aug2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-22667 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/onedge.15aug2024.png" alt="" width="148" height="222" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/4dALcRI">On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything</a><br/>Nate Silver<br/><strong><a href="https://apnews.com/article/nate-silver-on-edge-book-review-328a92f0ce5db446568dae76b4679892">Review</a> via AP</strong><br/>By the end of Nate Silver’s latest book, you might feel inspired to take some chances. This inclination isn't about seeking adrenaline rushes or being reckless; rather, it’s about recognizing that calculated risks can lead to substantial rewards. In “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,” Silver convincingly argues that humans tend to be overly cautious, and those who confront this instinct can reap significant benefits throughout their lives.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-17-august-2024/#more-22652" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-17-august-2024/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-17T07:38:59-04:00">August 17, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The sentiments surrounding a potential recession can shift rapidly within a week. Just seven days ago, headlines suggested that a contraction was either already occurring or was imminent. Fast forward a week, and there's a noticeable sense of relief following the latest economic data. The evidence for claiming a spike in recession risk was never strong, based on a <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-isnt-in-recession-now-but-downturn-risk-may-be-rising/">wide array of available statistics</a>. However, relying on sensational headlines and singular metrics can easily distort the understanding of the U.S. macroeconomic trend in real-time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/latest-economic-data-suggests-us-expansion-continues/#more-22674" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/latest-economic-data-suggests-us-expansion-continues/" title="7:12 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-16T07:12:56-04:00">August 16, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* U.S. jobless claims <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jobs-economy-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-2d0e921036547cf6ae10c39c8edbc865">decline</a> for a second consecutive week, indicating labor market resilience.<br/>* U.S. homebuilder sentiment <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3469414/u-s-housing-market-index-unexpectedly-drops-to-eight-month-low-in-august.aspx">falls</a> to an eight-month low in August.<br/>* U.S. industrial production <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-declines-most-133004045.html">drops</a> significantly in July, marking the largest decline since the year's start.<br/>* The NY Fed Manufacturing Index <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3469408/new-york-manufacturing-index-remains-negative-in-august.aspx">remains negative</a> in August.<br/>* U.S. retail spending <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/retail-sales-july-2024-.html">increases</a> significantly more than anticipated in July:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/retail.16aug2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22671" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/retail.16aug2024.png" alt="" width="1200" height="675" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-august-2024/#more-22670" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-august-2024/" title="6:25 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-16T06:25:47-04:00">August 16, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The gap between the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and a <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate/">‘fair value’ estimate</a> from CapitalSpectator.com has continued to narrow as of July. Although the market rate remains significantly above the model's estimate, recent analyses indicate that the premium is set to diminish further.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-15-august-2024/#more-22663" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-15-august-2024/" title="7:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-15T07:16:19-04:00">August 15, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* A Federal Reserve official <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/top-official-federal-reserve-risk-late-rate-cuts-112838859">states</a> that the central bank cannot afford to be delayed in implementing rate cuts.<br/>* Japan's GDP <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/japan-second-quarter-gdp-beats-expectations-up-0point5percent-from-previous-quarter.html">increases</a> more than anticipated in Q2.<br/>* China's industrial growth <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dd6f8df7-5980-4a5e-bf55-7fe76fbd7bd9">slows</a>, reaching a four-month low in July.<br/>* Cisco plans to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/14/investing/ciscoto-cut-7-of-its-global-workforce/index.html">reduce</a> its global workforce by 7%.<br/>* U.S. headline consumer inflation <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/14/cpi-july-2024-inflation-economy">drops below 3%</a> for the first time since 2021:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/cpi.15aug2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22661" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/cpi.15aug2024.png" alt="" width="883" height="592" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-august-2024/#more-22660" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-august-2024/" title="6:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-15T06:39:48-04:00">August 15, 2024</time></a>
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<p>Betting against the U.S. stock market has proven to be a losing proposition in relative terms in recent years. Analyzing global markets by region indicates that a rally in African stocks may soon rival the performance of U.S. equities, according to data gathered from various ETFs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/africa-stocks-may-be-close-to-overtaking-us-equities-in-2024/#more-22657" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/africa-stocks-may-be-close-to-overtaking-us-equities-in-2024/" title="7:19 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-14T07:19:30-04:00">August 14, 2024</time></a>
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