This year’s initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a slow start prior to August, lagging behind the overall performance of US stocks. Analysts attributed this lack of vigor to the dominance of private equity, which has been capturing the best new companies before they have the opportunity to go public. However, in recent weeks, IPO performance has notably improved, outpacing the broader equities market in 2025, according to two distinct ETFs.
US retail sales exceeded expectations in August, marking an increase for the third consecutive month. “The American consumer seems to be in a positive mood. This is encouraging news for the economy, but it may intensify discussions regarding the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate cuts,” commented Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
US economic activity is anticipated to decelerate in the third quarter; however, this slowdown is not expected to raise recession alarms, according to the median estimate from the nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
NY Fed Manufacturing Index has turned negative in September. This unexpected drop reverses the gains made in the previous two months and represents the largest monthly decline since June. The downturn is partly due to significant reductions in new orders and shipments.
Investor sentiment has demonstrated remarkable resilience amidst a stream of concerning news headlines over the summer, showing little indication that negative developments are making an impact. As several risk factors begin to surface, they may challenge this optimism in the fourth quarter; however, the bullish trend remains intact as the week of trading starts.
The likelihood of a US recession increased in August; however, it remains well below a threshold that would indicate a high probability of an economic downturn, according to a business-cycle index published by the Richmond Fed. The SOS Recession Indicator rose to 0.062 last month, significantly under the 0.2 level that represents heightened recession risk.
● The World’s Worst Bet: How the Globalization Gamble Went Wrong (And What Would Make It Right)
David J. Lynch
Review via Kirkus Reviews
As the last century ended, a prevailing Washington consensus maintained that the market possessed all the answers, suggesting that integrating China into the global trading system would ensure a peaceful future. This narrative held until reality took a turn for the worse. Lynch, a global economics correspondent for the Washington Post, skillfully presents a discouraging tale. He highlights that America’s industrial output has been declining since the 1950s, attributing this to automation rather than foreign competition. While American businesses were already shifting to Mexico and other countries for cost savings, excitement surged around China when it moved away from “Maoist idiocy” to welcome world entrepreneurs into its vast market. The expectation was that both sides would benefit significantly from this supposedly free market, with President Clinton being credited for his 1990s campaign promoting globalization.
The “fair value” estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield remained largely unchanged in August, even as the average market rate continued to decline. Consequently, the market premium for the 10-year yield fell to its lowest level in nearly a year, based on three models analyzed by CapitalSpectator.com. This downward trend in the market premium — the difference between the actual yield and the fair-value estimate — has accelerated recently, driven by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts at its September 17 meeting.
US consumer inflation experienced an increase in August, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.9% — the highest level since January. “While consumer inflation exceeded forecasts, it wasn’t substantial enough to prevent the Fed from initiating rate cuts next week,” stated Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide. “The labor market is losing momentum, reinforcing the need for the Fed to begin reducing rates next week, marking the start of a series of potential cuts.”
It’s well-known that the Trump administration harbors skepticism towards alternative energy sources. If that stood as a signal for investors to liquidate clean-energy stocks in favor of familiar fossil fuel enterprises, the message seems not to have reached the broader investment community.
