The primary runoff elections in Texas have unveiled significant challenges for incumbent politicians, revealing that Donald Trump and AIPAC are substantial threats in the current political landscape.
Let’s delve into the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
Trump-Endorsed Paxton Defeats Cornyn
The results were decisive. Ken Paxton claimed victory in all but two of Texas’s 254 counties:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) May 27, 2026
In a show of gratitude, Paxton, sporting a newly dyed copper hairdo, praised Trump, declaring him “the most powerful force in politics”:
Paxton thanked Trump: “When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and the people of Texas, he didn’t listen. Instead, President Trump gave me his complete and total endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful… https://t.co/8qfliQR8sD
— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) May 27, 2026
Why did Trump side with Cornyn’s opponent? A report from NBC explains:
Unlike Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., another recent target of Trump who lost his primary, Cornyn voted to acquit Trump during the impeachment trials in 2021. Nevertheless, he was highly critical of the Capitol riot and suggested that Trump should not run again in 2024, labeling him unelectable and advocating for a new direction for the GOP. Later, as Trump began to dominate early primaries and secure the nomination, Cornyn reversed course and endorsed him.
That’s what one could call a profile in courage.
The NYT elaborated on the race:
In the Senate race, Paxton targeted Cornyn and the establishment wing of the party he represents. In response, Cornyn highlighted his opponent’s ongoing divorce that involved allegations of infidelity and aired ads featuring an AI-generated Paxton alongside two faceless women, neither of whom were his wife. Over $128 million was spent on advertising in the Senate race alone, most of which supported the ultimately doomed task of trying to salvage Cornyn’s position. Additional millions flooded into the state attorney general race in the final days.
Republican candidates also began using novel methods of denigration, sometimes mixing their derision with the party’s recent embrace of anti-Muslim rhetoric.
So, does this suggest the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, has a fighting chance?
Can Democrats Capture the Senate through Texas?
TIME’s Philip Elliott reports that Paxton has created a $250 million gap in the GOP’s national budget:
For over a year, Republicans implored President Trump’s advisors to either endorse Sen. John Cornyn or, at the very least, remain silent. However, Trump endorsed Cornyn’s primary rival, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who then advanced through a contentious and costly runoff to the general election this November. Senate Republicans shelled out $90 million trying to defend their likable colleague and undermine the scandal-laden Paxton, but their efforts fell short. They now face a staggering reality: they need to spend an estimated $250 million to assist Paxton in retaining the seat, all while attempting to flip Democratic strongholds in states like Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
Nate Cohn from the NYT argues that Democrats could feasibly take the Senate seat:
Remarkable demographic shifts have left Texas Republicans in a surprisingly vulnerable situation. What was once a staunchly Republican state is now dependent on strong support from Hispanic voters. Recent national polls indicate that Trump’s appeal among Hispanic voters has significantly eroded, jeopardizing the Republican hold on Texas. The latest New York Times/Siena poll reveals Democrats leading by 30 points among nationwide Hispanic registered voters. This is a stronger performance than Joe Biden’s in 2020 and nearing Clinton’s in 2016. Significant Democratic gains among Hispanic voters alone could turn Texas into a competitive battleground this November, especially considering expected gains among other demographics, including white voters.
The gains made by Democrats among white voters in Texas during the Trump era mirror the progress they made in Georgia, steering that state leftward over a similar timeframe.
Had the gains among white Texas voters occurred within a stable environment, they would have made Texas competitive in 2024. However, that equilibrium has shifted: Trump significantly advanced with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics, negating Democratic progress—and then some. Now, those trends seem to have reversed.
And now, what about AIPAC’s influence?
Cornyn attempted to position himself as the candidate favored by AIPAC, but it did not yield the desired outcome:
John Cornyn’s digital media team, Harris Media LLC, proudly displays Netanyahu and his party among its clients.
As in, Cornyn is literally hiring a Likud contractor to create ads portraying Tucker Carlson as a traitor while demanding Ken Paxton’s denunciation of him. https://t.co/EWgaXBAJM4 pic.twitter.com/7VjHnjFCOb
— Mel (@Villgecrazylady) April 10, 2026
The Texas Tribune details the significant role of dark money in the race:
- Former President George W. Bush
His $5,000 contribution to Cornyn marks his first political donation to a federal Texas candidate since 2022. That year, he also donated $125,000 to his nephew, George P. Bush, who faced off against Paxton in the attorney general primary and lost in a runoff. - Rupert Murdoch
Murdoch donated $200,000 to Cornyn on New Year’s Eve.
The Tribune also highlights the dark money flowing to Cornyn through the Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC:
- Ohio Works Inc. + America Works Fund Inc.: $8.6M
… backed by oil and gas-linked groups, Republican figures in Washington, and Texas billionaire Kenneth Fisher. - Stephen Schwarzman: $1.5M
Scharzman is the billionaire CEO of Blackstone. - Jim and Robson Walton: $1M
Each Walton brother, heirs to the Walmart fortune, contributed $500,000 to the PAC.
Paxton’s funding sources include:
- Michael Rydin
The retired Houston software developer, a significant contributor to right-wing causes, provided Paxton with $17,000, having donated over $1 million to the Freedom Caucus Fund. - Darwin and Doug Deason
The late IT billionaire Darwin and his son Doug have been longstanding supporters of Paxton.
Paxton also received support from PACs, especially the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which includes donors like:
- Jonathan Knutz: $1.1M
Knutz is the CEO of a Houston-based medical device firm. - Preserve Texas Inc.: $950,000
This Virginia-based dark money group was established shortly after Paxton launched his Senate campaign. - Gary Heavin: $500,000
Heavin is a businessman in the Waco area and founder of the Curves fitness chain, known for his anti-abortion stance. - Chelsey Milton: $500,000
An Arizona homemaker and Trump supporter, her husband was pardoned by Trump. Trevor Milton, previously CEO of an electric vehicle firm, was sentenced to four years in prison for securities fraud. - Two Toads LLC / SSC Inc. / Baloney Feathers LTD: $300,000
These groups, sharing a Lubbock address, donated $100,000 each to the PAC on March 17 and have not contributed elsewhere.
Now, let’s explore the matchup between Paxton and Talarico.
Talarico Targets Cornyn’s Supporters
Donald Trump has secured another win with Texas AG Ken Paxton now approaching a contest against James Talarico—an outcome Democrats believe could spell trouble for the Senate majority.
Following Paxton’s victory, Talarico’s campaign reported raising $600,000 in just two hours—the most successful two-hour span of his entire campaign, which concluded its first quarter with $27 million raised and $10 million in cash reserves.
To succeed in November, Talarico emphasized the importance of winning over Cornyn’s supporters—a group vastly conservative but less so than Paxton. After Cornyn’s concession, Talarico assured his supporters, “you have a place in our campaign.”
In his appeal, he asserted, “I have a legislative record that offers much to Senator Cornyn’s supporters. Ken Paxton has a criminal record. I have a legislative record.” He continued, highlighting his bipartisan approach and stance on major issues relevant to Texas, including border security and the oil and gas industry.
“I believe I can make a compelling case to Senator Cornyn’s backers.”
GOP Embraces Ad Hominem Attacks
Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters unleashed a tirade against Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, labeling him a “creep” interested in “mutilating” children and criticizing his vegan diet—an offense in Texas.
Gruters borrowed from Trump’s playbook, referring to Talarico as “Talafreako” during an interview.
When asked how the RNC plans to keep Texas red, Gruters claimed it was straightforward: “everything about Talarico is repugnant to the true Texans.”
Talarico responded to the vegan accusations, stating, “He’s Been ‘Eating Barbecue Since Before Ken Paxton’s First Indictment’.”
He also plans to address the “freako” attack directly:
Reporter: Ken Paxton is calling you ‘Talafreako’@JamesTalarico: If Ken Paxton is concerned about freaks, he should stop giving Epstein-style sweetheart deals to pedophiles. This is the same individual who recently cut a deal to release Adam Hoffman, a confessed child rapist.pic.twitter.com/LZNqXn7LXn
Regarding Adam Hoffman, Houston Public Media reports:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing scrutiny for a plea deal that allowed a Waco man to plead guilty to two misdemeanors after a series of charges involving the repeated sexual abuse of a young boy. The deal negotiated by Paxton’s office could see the individual serve just one day in jail.
Local officials, including the presiding district attorney and area state representative, have publicly criticized Paxton for this arrangement.
Moreover, Paxton’s alleged use of dark money to purchase a mansion for his mistress has raised eyebrows. According to the Daily Mail,
Paxton, now 63, has taken refuge in a $2.1 million mansion in a gated community in Frisco, Texas. The lavish residence includes five bedrooms, five bathrooms, and a swimming pool overlooking a meticulously maintained golf course.
Political insiders suggest that Paxton is living with his girlfriend Tracy Duhon at this luxury property purchased just before Valentine’s Day. This affair has drawn attention, particularly since Paxton remains married to Angela Paxton, a sitting state senator.
Participants in his political world have expressed confusion over the situation, particularly given the proximity of Duhon’s home to his wife’s residence.
Wow. Ken Paxton acquired a $2.2 million home in a gated community with his mistress on February 2, 2026. The purchase was made in cash, and the trust managing it is the “5 Harbour Town Living Trust,” which is available through public records. Where did he get… https://t.co/hIM4OinELh
— Hey Jo🤍 (@joe_jo9) May 26, 2026
Next, let’s examine AIPAC’s influence on the Democratic primary run-offs in Texas.
AIPAC’s Influence: A Loss for All
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) May 27, 2026
Why was AIPAC keen to unseat Al Green?
For the first time in U.S. history, an amendment was proposed for a complete arms embargo on Israel, supported by MTG and five others, including Al Green, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Summer Lee. The Israeli lobby, along with media and political networks, continues to exert immense influence…
— ☀️👀 (@zei_squirrel) May 27, 2026
AIPAC wasn’t the only player in the supportive camp for Menefee. The newly minted Democratic nominee is also backed by crypto-enthusiast U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett—who lost her Senate primary against James Talarico. According to Politico:
Crockett has emerged as a pivotal supporter for Rep. Christian Menefee in his primary runoff against fellow Democrat Al Green, as well as for former Rep. Colin Allred competing against Rep. Julie Johnson.
In Houston’s TX-18 district, where Crockett endorses Menefee, the crypto-connected super PAC Protect Progress has invested $3.7 million on two ads promoting the recently-elected U.S. representative against a senior Congressional Black Caucus member.
Additionally, one noteworthy primary runoff has generated significant interest:
The Case of the ‘Anti-Semitic’, GOP-Linked Democrat
The run-off in Texas’s 35th Congressional District has attracted attention via Politico’s coverage:
Lead Left has allocated over $900,000 to promote Maureen Galindo, a left-leaning sex therapist with a history of comments deemed anti-Semitic. The super PAC has spent more than $640,000 on advertising alone, intending to boost candidates perceived as weaker within Democratic ranks against Republicans, potentially facilitating the GOP’s chances in November. Unlike traditional swing districts targeted by the PAC, Texas’s 35th District has been gerrymandered to favor Republicans, making it a challenging landscape for the Democrats.
Ultimately, Garcia secured victory with 63% of the vote.
That wraps it up for today. See you next week.
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