Recently, President Trump, along with various U.S. executives, visited China for discussions with President Xi Jinping, momentarily sidelining the ongoing conflicts in Iran.
UPDATED: May 15, 8:15 AM ET
In the midst of these developments, I overlooked the proposal for a Saudi non-aggression pact and a significant prisoner exchange with the Houthis. I’ve added that information after the section about the Straits.
Meanwhile, there were reports of ships being seized and sunk, ongoing hostilities in Lebanon, and political activities in Washington, D.C.
Trump Responds to Xi’s “Thucydides Trap”
Xi’s opening remarks referenced the “Thucydides Trap,” which suggests that conflict between a rising and a declining power is unavoidable:
Xi Jinping: The whole world is watching our meeting. Currently, we are witnessing an unprecedented transformation globally, creating a fluid and tumultuous international situation. The world stands at a new crossroads. Can China and the United States avoid the Thucydides Trap and establish a new paradigm for major country relations? Can we collaboratively address global challenges and enhance stability?
Trump interpreted Xi’s comments as suggesting that China is the advancing power while the U.S. is on the decline. He then responded on Truth Social with some key points:
When President Xi subtly mentioned America as potentially a declining nation, he was indeed referencing the severe setbacks we faced during Sleepy Joe Biden’s administration. On this note, he was absolutely correct. Our nation suffered immensely, with issues like unchecked borders, high taxes, and rampant crime!
However, he failed to acknowledge the remarkable resurgence of the United States during the sixteen remarkable months of the Trump presidency, featuring peak stock markets and strong international relationships.
In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump discussed the Iran War, stating via the NYT:
“He stated he wouldn’t provide military equipment, which is significant. He emphasized that strongly, but added that they buy a substantial amount of their oil from there and wish to maintain that relationship. He wants the Strait of Hormuz open.”
Today, Xi and Trump will participate in smaller meetings, hoping to facilitate some of the well-known “deals” Trump often boasts about.
With that, let’s shift focus from East Asia to West Asia and the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship Seized, Another Sunk
The AP reported on maritime developments in the war zone:
A vessel anchored near the United Arab Emirates was seized and taken toward Iran, while another cargo ship off the coast of Oman sank following an attack. Authorities indicated that tensions are rising in the Strait of Hormuz.
The perpetrators of these incidents remain unclear. However, a senior Iranian official reiterated the country’s claim over the waterway and asserted their right to seize U.S.-linked oil tankers.
The BBC elaborated on the seized vessel:
Reports indicated that a ship operating as a “floating armory” in the Gulf of Oman was taken by Iranian forces. The vessel, identified as the Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan, was last tracked 70 km (40 miles) northeast of Fujairah in the UAE.
Operators described Hui Chuan as an armory storing weapons for security firms defending ships at sea against piracy.
As for the ship that sank:
An Indian-registered vessel was reportedly attacked off Oman’s coast, leading to its sinking. The Haji Ali sank after a suspected explosion, likely from a drone or missile. Fortunately, all Indian crew members were rescued by Omani authorities.
The ship, which set sail from Berbera Port in Somalia on May 6, was carrying livestock when flames erupted onboard, prompting the crew to abandon ship.
The Iranian leadership has also ramped up its social media offensive, with Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf criticizing the U.S. defense budget and Trump’s former Secretary of War:
Why are you funding Hegseth, the former TV host, at record levels just to create chaos in our backyard? It’s ludicrous to spend so much with such rising debt!
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been proactive.
Saudis Making Moves Against the War
Saudi Arabia is considering a non-aggression pact among Middle Eastern states and Iran as part of discussions with allies on regional stability following the end of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. This approach may mirror the 1970s Helsinki Process that helped reduce tensions in Europe during the Cold War.
The ongoing conflict has prompted a transforming urgency among Arab states to reevaluate alliances and regional security.
Many European nations are supporting the Saudi proposal and have encouraged other Gulf countries to back it, viewing it as a means to prevent future conflicts.
Additionally, a substantial prisoner exchange was conducted with Ansar Allah, as reported by the FT:
The warring factions in Yemen agreed to the largest prisoner swap in over ten years, marking Saudi Arabia’s efforts to de-escalate tensions and keep the Houthis from engaging further in the war with Iran. Under the agreement, the Houthis and the Yemeni government will release 1,750 detainees, including seven Saudis held by the rebels.
This has been the most extensive prisoner swap since Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015. Analysts suggest this deal will help build trust as Saudi Arabia attempts to revive stalled peace talks.
Now, let’s turn to Lebanon.
Hezbollah Support Still Strong
According to the BBC:
Last Saturday, an unannounced Israeli airstrike destroyed a building sheltering a family displaced by the war in Saksakiyeh, southern Lebanon. The ceasefire established last month has failed to quell the violence between Israel and Hezbollah. The Israeli military stated they targeted Hezbollah members, despite nine civilians being killed.
Relatives of the victims expressed their sorrow, highlighting that many locals still believe Hezbollah is their best defense against ongoing Israeli aggression.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government continues negotiations with Israel in Washington. As reported by Reuters:
The U.S. described the Israel-Lebanon discussions as productive. A senior Lebanese official stated that Lebanon has demanded an end to hostilities in these negotiations, despite ongoing attacks by Hezbollah and Israel.
Notably, in D.C., there was significant action regarding the Iran War.
War Powers Vote Fails in the House
The Democratic Party faced a setback as they lost a War Powers resolution by just one vote, as detailed by the Washington Post:
The House recently failed to advance a resolution aimed at compelling the Trump administration to cease its operations in Iran. This marked the first occasion lawmakers discussed such a measure since the expiration of a legal timeframe for authorizing the conflict.
The proposal did not pass, resulting in a tie of 212-212, with three Republicans opposing it alongside most Democrats. A similar initiative faced rejection in the Senate on Wednesday.
Rep. Jared Golden indicated he would back a forthcoming “clean” proposal to halt the conflict, following his no vote.
Three Republicans sided with the motion in the House: Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, and Tom Barrett. In the Senate, three Republicans also broke ranks with Trump on a similar vote.
Virginia Senator Tim Kaine also spoke out about the historical context of the U.S.-Iran relationship, citing the events of 1953, the authoritarian regime of the Shah, and the impact of U.S. actions in the Iran-Iraq War:
Senator Tim Kaine delivers an insightful and honest perspective on our nation’s actions in Iran. His address sheds light on crucial historical context. Kudos to him for his remarks!
Now, let’s return to discuss some misleading statements from the Trump administration.
Only One “Civilian Casualty Event”
U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper testified in the Senate about the military’s operations in Iran. The New York Times reported:
Admiral Cooper claimed that the destruction of an Iranian school, which resulted in numerous civilian casualties, was the solitary such event within a broad military campaign of over 13,600 strikes. His assurances met skepticism from lawmakers, and human rights organizations refuted his claims.
Despite extensive reporting on civilian casualties, the U.S. military has yet to take responsibility for this school strike.
University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape remarked that untold casualties may arise from this U.S. and Israeli military action.
Escalation Trap Snapping
Pape addressed Robert Kagan’s article titled “Checkmate in Iran”:
Kagan suggested that the U.S. may already be facing a strategic defeat that cannot be overlooked. This acknowledgment aligns with concerns previously raised about the ineffectiveness of limited military campaigns.
The crux of the issue lies in the potential for tactical frustrations to provoke calls for greater military escalation, creating a perilous cycle.
As we conclude, let’s take a look at some engaging videos.
Prof Marandi Meets Sneako
Sneako, a prominent live streamer, recently hosted Iranian spokesman Seyed Mohammad Marandi on Kick.com. Their discussion delved into various topics:
Professor Marandi expressed that Iran stands ready to support any oppressed group, regardless of their identity, including Jewish communities. This perspective challenges prevailing narratives.
Readers may also find comparisons to Marandi’s earlier discussion with Judge Napolitano interesting.
Janta Ka on the Xi-Trump Summit
During a recent summit, President Trump was unsuccessful in persuading Xi Jinping to advocate for unfettered maritime navigation through the Persian Gulf. In contrast, Xi cautioned Trump against interfering in Taiwan’s affairs, marking a significant diplomatic setback for the U.S. president.
Aguilar on Nima
Green Beret Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar, recognized for revealing atrocities in Gaza, discussed military strategies with Nima:
Lt. Col. Aguilar pointed out that the ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon has morphed into a pivotal battle linked to broader tensions with Iran. Hezbollah’s resilience in defending Lebanon has created significant challenges for the Israeli Defense Forces.
As we widen our perspective beyond typical narratives, let’s take a look at one last video.
Thank you for reading, and stay resilient.
