Vladimir Putin has assured the Russian people that victory over Ukraine is on the horizon. Yet, this Saturday, Moscow’s Red Square will remain devoid of the tanks and missiles typical of its annual celebration marking the defeat of Nazi Germany. This change marks the first time in nearly two decades that the event will unfold without military displays, mainly due to the Kremlin’s concern over potential Ukrainian attacks.
The individual who has seemingly injected fear into the Putin regime this weekend is Robert Brovdi, commander of a Ukrainian military drone squadron known as Madyar’s Birds, named after his call sign. In recent months, the unit has executed a series of long-range assaults on key targets deep within Russia, including ports, oil refineries, and missile production facilities.
Brovdi acknowledges that a “symbolic” attack on Red Square would make headlines globally. However, he suggests that Ukraine would likely target areas with weaker air defenses instead. “There’s no advantage in wasting drones on the ‘great wall,’” he explained, alluding to the heightened security surrounding Moscow. “Striking the energy sector or military assets would be a more effective approach.”
The devastating attacks from Brovdi’s elite 414th brigade have posed significant challenges for the Kremlin. The brigade’s long-range drones are eliminating enemy air defense systems more swiftly than Russia can replace them, leaving a vast area within a 1,250-mile (2,000km) radius of Brovdi’s position, including Putin’s residences, exposed.
Ukrainian drones recently struck the Black Sea oil terminal at Tuapse four times in two weeks. “Practically everything there has burned,” Brovdi noted. Similar assaults affected the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Drones even traveled to the Urals, targeting an oil refinery in Perm and fighter jets in Chelyabinsk, which is 1,050 miles from the frontlines.
A satellite image shows smoke rising from oil infrastructure in Tuapse, located in the southern Krasnodar region of Russia on April 28. Photograph: Vantor/AP
Brovdi suggests that the smoldering infrastructure and dark clouds of oil fumes point towards a potential Ukrainian triumph by crippling Russia’s economy, limiting its ability to bankroll its expensive military endeavors. Putin allocates 40% of his $530bn annual budget for military purposes, and Brovdi estimates that 100 million tonnes of Russian oil, valued at $100bn (£73.4bn), is exported each year from ports vulnerable to his drones.
Furthermore, Brovdi remarks on the casualties inflicted on the Russian military by drones; Ukraine claims the Kremlin has lost more soldiers than it can recruit for the fifth consecutive month, with deaths estimated between 30,000 and 34,000 monthly. “This significantly impacts the combat capabilities of the Russian forces, diminishing their offensive potential. That is a fact,” he asserts.
Robert ‘Madyar’ Brovdi in his underground office. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
Meeting Brovdi—a former grain trader who took command of Ukraine’s newly established Unmanned Systems Forces last year—necessitates extensive security measures and a concealed vehicle ride. Following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he has become one of Russia’s top assassination targets. His operations center is situated deep underground, accessed through a corridor lined with sleeping pods that leads to a chamber filled with computer screens and live video feeds.
Drones dangle from the ceiling, accompanied by a library and a painting of the Ukrainian flag by artist Anatolii Kryvolap, alongside modern sculptures. Video loops display the final moments of Russian soldiers and the grim results of explosions. Each casualty is documented and verified, with some footage compiled into a social media reel. Though some may find these clips distasteful, they resonate online and serve to humiliate Russia’s military. An electronic dashboard tracks enemy losses—personnel, armored vehicles, radar systems— in real time.
Brovdi relaxes on a sofa in a private office, smoking and serving cups of tea. Nearby, goldfish swim in a tank. Once clean-shaven and formally attired, he now sports a green military uniform and a long, priest-like beard. He articulates statistics rapidly in Ukrainian, maintaining a detailed accounting system that records every drone mission since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022.
The operations room of ‘Madyar’s Birds’, an elite drone unit. Faces and screens have been blurred at the request of Ukraine’s military. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
A few factors elucidate Russia’s recent anxiety and the growing confidence within Ukraine’s military ranks. One is Ukraine’s newly acquired status as a drone powerhouse. Its counter-drone technology is now being exported to Gulf States, facing Iranian threats due to U.S-Israeli offensives. Another aspect is the effective use of big data. The monitoring system, Delta, archives every mission, including setbacks, with Brovdi claiming to obtain 12-15 terabytes of raw video footage daily.
Ukraine is also achieving tactical victories. Earlier this year, it mounted a minor counteroffensive, reclaiming 12 villages in the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. In April, for the first time since 2024, Russian forces lost more territory than they gained, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War.
“Our troops are advancing and reclaiming our lands. The enemy is suffering substantial losses and is struggling to replenish their ranks,” asserts Capt Oleg Kopan, the deputy commander of the artillery reconnaissance division of the 148th brigade.
Soldiers from the 148th brigade waiting for a reconnaissance drone to return from a mission above southern Ukraine. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
The brigade’s drone pilots operate from a concealed dugout nestled beneath a tree line. Inside, they have computers, sleeping arrangements, and supplies of food and water. Every few hours, they launch a Leleka reconnaissance drone, propelled into the air via a catapult. Its camera provides a panoramic overview of shell-scarred fields and Russian trenches, with sporadic grey clouds of smoke emerging from Ukrainian artillery strikes.
Kopan asserts that Ukraine’s recent accomplishments are “100%” linked to the rapid advancements in unmanned technology. “Drones enable us to inflict precise damage while minimizing personnel casualties and enhancing efficiency,” he explains. However, the Russians are also adjusting. “They have become adept at observing our strategies, replicating them swiftly, and scaling up their operations. They possess the factories and workforce to do so,” he comments.
According to Brovdi, Ukraine has forged a “new doctrine of warfare.” He estimates that drones now account for 80% of the destruction, eclipsing traditional weapons like rifles and armored units. “A blitzkrieg is no longer feasible. If Russia attempted to seize Kyiv once more with a million tanks, it would provoke the largest bloodbath in history,” he warns. “Two million drones would swarm over those tanks and decimate them mercilessly.”
Soldiers from the 148th artillery brigade at an underground frontline position in southern Ukraine. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
He emphasizes that NATO countries have not yet fully recognized the necessity of modernizing their military frameworks. “The generals in command were trained in a time when drones were not a priority,” he notes. There is an urgent need to create a cohesive system that integrates video footage, photographs, coordinates, and verified kills. “Russia will not halt its actions. Neither we nor you have the luxury of time,” he states.
Despite recent achievements, Brovdi cautions that Ukraine is still “a long way from victory.” “I hold no illusions that a resolution to this conflict will materialize in the near future. We are likely looking at a temporary pause related to some form of agreement or geopolitical conditions,” he explains.
“Such a pause would only afford Putin the opportunity to regroup. His obsession with power and ambition to establish a dictatorship are incurable. He is a troubled individual,” he concludes.
Key Takeaways
- Ukraine is leveraging drone technology for long-range strikes against Russian military assets.
- Recent Ukrainian attacks on significant targets may impact Russia’s military financing and operational effectiveness.
- Ukraine’s military claims Russian casualties are outpacing recruitment efforts.
- Ukrainian counter-offensives have recently reclaimed territory lost to Russian forces.
- The evolving nature of warfare is shifting towards drone operations as a primary strategy.
FAQ
What has led to the lack of military displays in Moscow’s Red Square?
The Kremlin is concerned about potential Ukrainian attacks, prompting a decision to hold the event without military hardware for the first time in nearly two decades.
How has Ukraine’s drone technology influenced the conflict?
Ukraine’s advancements in drone technology have allowed them to conduct long-range strikes effectively, targeting key Russian military infrastructure.
What is the impact of drone warfare on Russian military capabilities?
Drone warfare has significantly contributed to Russian military losses, making it challenging for them to maintain their combat effectiveness and recruitment.
What are the implications for NATO countries regarding Ukraine’s tactics?
NATO countries are encouraged to rethink and modernize their military strategies, incorporating drone warfare into their operational plans.
