Dive Brief:
- There is a noticeable increase in the consumption of premium, barista-crafted coffee beverages, while orders for classic staple coffees, like cold brew, are declining, according to data released by Toast this week.
- Latte orders saw a 4.0% increase in 2025 compared to 2024, while espresso shots rose by 3.3%. Conversely, orders of regular drip coffee decreased by 3.3%, and plain cold brew orders saw a decline of 2.2%.
- These trends, alongside the rising popularity of alternative caffeine sources like energy drinks, indicate that the factors influencing caffeine consumption are more intricate than a mere shift from hot to cold drinks, suggesting that coffee might be less affected by the market pressures affecting other food and beverage segments.
Dive Insight:
According to Toast, the rise in handcrafted espresso drinks during a period of heightened price sensitivity could stem from various interconnected factors. Many consumers may hesitate to buy drip coffee or cold brew, as these can easily be made at home or purchased from grocery stores, yet they still appreciate the experience offered by cafes.
“Some consumers cherish the experience of relaxing in a cozy cafe with a specially crafted drink,” noted Bryan Koerber, Toast’s principal of brand journalism and news, in the report. At the same time, households with more disposable income might not be reducing their consumption significantly, or they may be reallocating their snack and beverage choices.
“You may not be a daily latte drinker, but if you find yourself in a cafe, you might be drawn to treat yourself to something special—especially if you’re cutting back in other areas,” Koerber added.
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has highlighted this desire for indulgent treats and the cafe experience as a pivotal aspect of the coffee giant’s turnaround plan, aiming to fortify the brand against speed-oriented drive-thru competitors.
Additionally, rising prices for drip coffee and cold brew over the last few years might be driving some of this shift: Median cold brew prices surged from $5 in early 2023 to $5.58, while the cost of drip coffee rose from approximately $3 to $3.65. Consequently, higher price points for simple drinks, which typically require less labor, may feel less valuable relative to their cost than premium options.
Cold brew and plain coffee sales are down, energy drinks and lattes are up.
Percentage change in sales for beverage types year-over-year in 2025, per Toast data.
In addition to these changes within coffee consumption, alternative caffeine sources—particularly energy drinks—are experiencing significant growth. Energy drink orders increased by 8.7%, marking the highest positive shift in Toast’s analysis of caffeinated beverages.
This trend may indicate both an expansion in the energy drink market and the loss of market share for other caffeinated drinks. For example, consumption of green tea fell by 4.9%, and black tea orders decreased by 3.4% in 2025. As refreshers and energy drinks become prominent alternatives to coffee, they may be attracting consumers away from other non-coffee beverage categories. However, herbal tea—a decaffeinated option—saw an 8.6% rise in orders.
In a previous interview, Mark Davis, CEO of Black Rock Coffee, noted that the chain’s energy platform, Fuel, has grown from about 20% to 24% of sales mix over the last few years. Experts predict that 2026 will be a banner year for energy drinks and other coffee alternatives.
Key Takeaways
- Demand for barista-crafted coffee drinks is increasing, while sales of standard coffees are declining.
- Latte and espresso shot orders have risen, contrasting with drops in regular drip coffee and cold brew.
- Consumers may favor upscale cafe experiences over simple coffee options available at home.
- High prices for traditional coffee drinks may be influencing consumer preferences towards premium beverages.
- Energy drinks are gaining market share, with significant increases in their sales.
- Shifts in caffeine consumption are shaping the beverage landscape in complex ways.
FAQ
What is driving the increase in premium coffee consumption?
The shift towards premium coffee consumption is influenced by consumers’ preference for unique cafe experiences, which contrasts with the availability of basic coffee options at home.
Are energy drinks negatively impacting traditional coffee sales?
Yes, energy drinks are significantly increasing in popularity and may be drawing customers away from traditional coffee beverages.
What trends are influencing coffee prices?
Recent increases in the prices of drip coffee and cold brew are contributing to consumers seeking higher value in premium beverages, as their perceived worth may be lower than that of specialty drinks.
In conclusion, the current trends in coffee consumption reveal a complex interplay between consumers’ preferences for premium experiences and the economic factors affecting traditional coffee sales. As the beverage landscape continues to evolve, both coffee producers and cafes may need to adapt to these shifting dynamics.
