In light of escalating climate change impacts, it appears that many environmental tipping points are approaching faster than previously predicted. One significant concern is the potential slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which could begin to shift within the next decade. This development poses profound implications for global climate patterns.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies
We will probably pass the tipping point for an AMOC shutdown in the next ten to twenty years or so.
—Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf
Does death make our lives less sweet? For most of us, no.
—Yours truly
Let’s take a moment to provide clarity on the current climate situation. Tipping points are looming, and it’s crucial to convey this information systematically:
- Negative effects are already occurring, and they are likely to continue.
- In the near future, these adverse effects will intensify.
- Eventually, we will reach tipping points beyond which severe consequences are inevitable.
- Following this, the worst effects will manifest fully.
This pattern applies to numerous issues, including sea level rise and coastal degradation.
Global sea levels are already rising, largely due to ocean thermal expansion (warm water occupies more space than cold) and the melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Once we cross the tipping point for glacial melt, we can expect catastrophic sea-level increases in the future.
What do these increases entail? The melting of Greenland’s ice alone could result in a rise of 24 feet, while Antarctic ice melt could lead to a staggering 230 feet. Coastal cities worldwide, home to 15% of the global population, will face erosion and submersion, resulting in losses amounting to 45% of U.S. GDP.
The key takeaway is that these crises unfold in stages: initial suffering, worsening conditions, achieving a tipping point (often unnoticed), and eventually a complete systemic failure down the line.
Right now, many systems are experiencing considerable distress, with tipping points lying just beneath the surface, waiting to be crossed.
The ‘AMOC’: Europe’s Climate Regulator
Now, let’s delve into one crucial system at risk: the oceanic current system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which acts like a climate regulator, preventing northern Europe from experiencing frigid conditions akin to those in Canada.
Winter in Montreal (source)
The AMOC facilitates the transfer of warm water from equatorial regions to the poles, where it cools and sinks, before returning as deep ocean currents. This circulation is essential for maintaining the temperate climate experienced in northern Europe, in contrast to the colder conditions in Canada, despite their geographic proximity.
Northern Europe benefits from AMOC warmth, while Canada does not. The two cities marked are equidistant from the North Pole. (Image source)
For deeper insights, consider watching this video featuring the notable climate physicist Stefan Rahmstorf, who articulates the scientific nuances surrounding the future of AMOC. Though just 15 minutes long, you might begin at 12:43 to hear his predictions on tipping points.
In brief, Rahmstorf suggests, “We will probably pass the tipping point for an AMOC shutdown in the next ten to twenty years or so,” indicating a timeframe between approximately 2035 and 2050.
While many of us may not witness this tipping point firsthand, its implications will be felt nonetheless.
A Note for Skeptics
For those skeptical about climate change, it’s crucial to remember that these projections stem from scientific models, which are not infallible. Indeed, numerous climate predictions have proved overly cautious, leaning towards a more complacent outlook.
Such skepticism does not concern me. Climate outcomes will unfold irrespective of prevailing opinions. The reality will persist—good or bad—independent of personal beliefs.
To the skeptics: Monitor your local environment for emerging signs of distress: declining water availability, prolonged droughts, increasing insurance costs, rising incidences of severe weather events, or diminished insect populations (a condition that is already observable). If you observe these changes, taking preemptive action to safeguard yourself is essential, regardless of the underlying cause. And if, by chance, your doubts are proved unfounded, I will gladly celebrate that outcome with you.
A Note for Believers
It’s easy to feel disheartened by this grim reality. After all, it reflects a loss—not of individual lives but of the future we envision, one that connects seamlessly to our present.
In our storytelling—through films and novels—the climate often remains overshadowed by dazzling technological advancements. Yet, the climate crisis will ultimately eclipse these innovations, potentially sidelining the technological joys we cherish for generations.
The key to remaining grounded is acknowledging the inevitability of death. Most people live their lives undeterred by the weight of mortality—they engage, foster relationships, grieve losses, celebrate victories, and strive to find joy.
Does the inevitability of death render life less sweet? For many, the answer is no. Although we cannot escape mortality, we refuse to let it diminish our experiences.
Similarly, if you view the decline of our climate and lifestyle as unavoidable, treat it as you would a personal loss and choose to live fully despite it. This decision is akin to the ones you faced yesterday.
If you discover ways to counter the forces that threaten our future—the few individuals who control our lives—act on those insights. Embracing that cause brings its own rewards.
