The beverage industry is bracing for transformative changes as major brewers set their sights on the future. With the upcoming soccer World Cup and a strategic shift towards soft drinks, industry leaders believe they can navigate the challenges posed by geopolitical issues, health-focused Gen Z consumers, and rising living costs.
Heineken recently announced plans to reduce its workforce by up to 6,000 jobs over the next two years. Carlsberg has issued warnings about a potentially difficult year ahead for consumer spending, and Anheuser-Busch, the maker of Budweiser, reported its lowest profit growth since 2020. All three companies have experienced a decline in sales volumes.
Despite these challenges, shares of the largest European brewers, boasting a combined annual revenue of $114 billion, have risen as investors anticipate that 2026 will be more favorable than 2025.
“We have a very good year in terms of opportunities to activate,” stated AB InBev CEO Michel Doukeris during a recent investor meeting, highlighting expected boosts from significant events such as the June-July soccer World Cup taking place in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, along with the strong growth in non-beer and low-alcohol product lines.
Doukeris noted that adverse conditions in critical markets like China and Brazil, which have been affected by poor weather recently, are beginning to improve. This development signals a brighter outlook for 2026 after a “very complicated” year in 2025.
A decline in beer sales throughout 2025 has exacerbated several years of either stagnant or decreasing growth, leading to an 8.6% drop in Heineken’s beer volumes, a 6.5% decrease for AB InBev, and a reduction of over 3% for Carlsberg since 2022.
YEAR AHEAD LOOKS BETTER AFTER ‘HORRIFIC’ 2025
Looking forward, analysts are optimistic about a potential recovery in beer volumes this year, with average growth expectations of 0.4% at AB InBev, 1.1% at Heineken, and 3% at Carlsberg.
“Overall, I think 2026 could be a much better year in terms of volume growth,” remarked Javier Gonzalez Lastra, an analyst at Berenberg, while adding that 2025 “was pretty horrific” for Heineken.
Carlsberg has found some success by aggressively expanding beyond beer, notably with its $4.2 billion acquisition of soft drink maker Britvic, which occurred last year, helping to mitigate the impact of dwindling beer demand.
CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen has flagged potential growth for 2026, spurred by sports events, the integration of a Pepsi business in Kazakhstan, and an improving outlook in markets such as India and Vietnam. He indicated positive expectations for revenue and volume growth in 2026.
“We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic,” Aarup-Andersen told reporters.
However, Steve Minnaar, a portfolio manager at AB InBev investor Abax Investments, cautioned that industry conditions remain challenging, even with emerging signs of recovery.
“We’re not overly optimistic about it,” he said. “I wouldn’t say things are more positive, but less negative.”
Key Takeaways
- Major brewers are preparing for a potential turnaround in 2026, backed by the upcoming soccer World Cup and a shift to soft drinks.
- Heineken plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs, while Carlsberg and Anheuser-Busch report declining sales volumes.
- Recent share gains suggest investor optimism for a better year ahead for the brewing industry.
- Analysts predict moderate growth in beer volumes for 2026 after a significant downturn in 2025.
- Carlsberg is diversifying its product range to offset weak beer demand.
- Industry experts maintain a cautious outlook amidst challenging market conditions.
FAQ
Why are major brewers reducing their workforce?
Brewers like Heineken are downsizing in response to declining sales volumes and the overall challenging market conditions.
What factors could improve the brewing industry’s outlook for 2026?
The upcoming soccer World Cup and an increased focus on non-beer products may provide opportunities for growth in 2026.
How have beer sales trends affected the major brewers?
Many major brewers have reported significant declines in beer volumes, leading to cautious forecasts and strategic shifts in product offerings.
What steps is Carlsberg taking to boost revenue?
Carlsberg is diversifying its portfolio by investing in soft drinks and integrating other beverage businesses to compensate for weak beer sales.
In conclusion, while the road ahead remains fraught with challenges, the brewing industry is cautiously optimistic about potential growth in 2026. Strategic shifts and key events like the soccer World Cup are seen as critical drivers for recovery.
