A Glimpse into the Coming Collapse
By Jeff Thomas, International Man
In 1999, predictions of a major economic collapse in the First World seemed far-fetched to many. This article explores the unfolding events of what has been termed the “Great Unravelling,” a phenomenon we anticipated would impact global economies. While our timing was once imprecise, the essence of these predictions has proven accurate. As we look ahead, what might we expect from such a collapse?
In our initial forecasts, we identified key “dominoes” that would fall during this unraveling, with significant events like a US real estate crash and stock market slump expected around 2005. Although we were slightly off in timing—these collapses didn’t occur until 2007—our assessment of the sequence of events has largely held true.
Our viewpoint is that, akin to how a ball of string accelerates as it unravels, the pace and intensity of the Great Unravelling will likewise increase as conditions deteriorate. However, these insights stem not from mystical predictions but from the understanding that history often repeats itself. Poor decisions by world leaders, driven by unchanging human nature, tend to lead to similar outcomes across eras. Those willing to study history with a contrarian mindset can glean valuable insights into potential future scenarios.
In 1999, the notion of impending economic disaster seemed absurd to most, as people typically consider only immediate concerns, leaving future uncertainties unexamined. This reality is evidenced by the many who have witnessed the first phase of the Great Unravelling yet struggle to visualize what the even more catastrophic second phase might entail, clinging to the hope that governments will manage to avert disaster.
However, a growing number of individuals are awakening to the reality of impending collapse and are beginning to inquire about what such circumstances may look like.
Primary and Secondary Events
Prediction of primary events is relatively straightforward. They might include major declines in bond and stock markets, sudden asset deflation followed by significant inflation—possibly hyperinflation—of essential commodities, and large-scale currency collapses, especially for the euro and the US dollar.
Secondary events are less predictable but likely include escalated unemployment, currency controls, protective tariffs, and severe economic depression, among others.
Throughout this turbulent journey, unexpected developments may arise, particularly actions taken by governments that are unprecedented and potentially unlawful. Such measures arise when a government feels it is losing control over its citizens. Examples could include:
- Travel Restrictions: Initially starting with limits on international travel, these may extend to domestic travel via checkpoints.
- Confiscation of Wealth: With precedents already set by the EU confiscating bank accounts, this could evolve into widespread government sanctioning of theft.
- Food Shortages: As inflation strikes, many businesses within the food supply chain may falter, potentially leading to a lack of available food.
- Squatter Rebellions: An increase in foreclosures could render many homeless, spawning a new class among the previously secure middle class.
- Riots: These may occur spontaneously or be incited by governments to justify extending their control over disgruntled populations.
- Martial Law: Prepared already through measures like the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, this could facilitate sweeping government actions under the guise of managing civil unrest.
How to Sidestep their Impact
The list above serves as a brief overview of potential crisis scenarios, presented with the understanding that such events may arise unexpectedly and with increasing frequency as the situation deteriorates.
Anticipating how collapsing governments may act towards their citizens is not merely speculative; it’s a vital exercise in preparation. Individuals should consider what their responses might be if any of these situations come to pass. If any of these scenarios seem likely, it is prudent to strategize ways to mitigate their impact.
While many lament that “the whole world is going to Hell,” this is not an absolute truth. Some nations are growing even as others falter. Readers must decide if they will be passive victims or proactive individuals who internationalize themselves in this shifting landscape. For those interested in opportunities for internationalization, we encourage exploring Casey Research’s A-Z guide on internationalization.
Sincerely,
Jeff Thomas
for Economic Prism
[Editor’s Note: Jeff Thomas is British and resides in the Caribbean. The son of an economist and historian, he learned early to be distrustful of governments as a general principle. Although he spent his career creating and developing businesses, for eight years, he penned a weekly newspaper column on the theme of limiting government. He began his study of economics around 1990, learning initially from Sir John Templeton, then Harry Schulz and Doug Casey, and later others of an Austrian persuasion. In 1999 he began his predictions for a second Great Depression and has since focused his attention on its ramifications and how it would affect the world.]
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