The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a decline in China’s market share in rare earth refining from 85% in 2025 to 70%-73% by 2035, down from 90% in 2023, due to investments from the U.S. and Malaysia. However, challenges in the U.S. include developing mining infrastructure and securing necessary financing.
Wright emphasizes the importance of treating critical minerals projects as supply-chain transactions, advising developers to prioritize customer and financing strategies early on. He underscores the value of creating closed-loop domestic supply chains connecting miners, processors, and manufacturers.
Despite political setbacks, the current administration claims to have facilitated 160 critical minerals deals, totaling around $40 billion since January 2025. The DOE is also investing significantly in U.S. processing and battery manufacturing. Despite progress, Wright notes that challenges persist, suggesting resilience as the key goal for the U.S. by 2030, anticipating increased domestic capacity and diversification of supply sources.
