In a critical phase of negotiations to conclude the conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump is set to convene with his Cabinet on Wednesday. Despite recent assertions that his administration and Tehran have “largely negotiated” a settlement, the talks remain in flux.
As Trump prepares for this important meeting with his key advisors, he expresses optimism about finalizing an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and support his claims that Iran’s nuclear capability has been sufficiently diminished to declare a political victory. This situation becomes even more pressing as the midterm elections approach and rising prices threaten Republican prospects.
However, the ongoing negotiations expose Trump to potential backlash, with critics suggesting the proposed resolution may allow Iran’s hardline leaders to emerge reaffirmed yet weakened.
Key Takeaways
- Trump is optimistic about closing an Iran deal while concerns about its fairness linger.
- The U.S. military recently conducted “defensive” strikes complicating the peace talks.
- Key issues remain unresolved, including Iran’s uranium stockpile and the role of Hezbollah.
- Republican allies express skepticism over the perceived leniency of the proposed deal.
- Regional allies question how Iran will utilize potential sanctions relief.
U.S. military actions have further complicated these discussions, following recent airstrikes targeting missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, which the Pentagon characterized as “defensive.” The U.S. emphasized its intent to act with restraint amidst a weeks-long ceasefire, while Iran denounced the strikes as indicative of “bad faith and unreliability.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that negotiations concerning the reopening of the strait and the expansion of the ceasefire, which could be used to finalize a nuclear agreement, will likely require more time. “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal,” Rubio remarked.
Some Trump backers are skeptical
While Trump believes a deal is imminent, significant differences between the U.S. and Iran persist. He also faces criticism from Republican supporters, including Senators Roger Wicker, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz, who argue the terms are too favorable for Tehran.
Publicly known aspects of the agreement, which bear resemblance to the nuclear deal former President Barack Obama established and that Trump later abandoned, have led to hesitation among some Republicans. Under this emergent deal, Iran would relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for a relief in sanctions. This information comes from officials familiar with the negotiations who preferred to remain anonymous.
One regional source revealed that the specifics of how Iran will relinquish the uranium will be subject to further negotiations during a 60-day period, which could involve partial dilution or transfer to a third country.
Iran currently holds about 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a step away from weapons-grade levels, as noted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Yet, Iran has not made a public commitment to surrender its uranium supply.
Trump indicated in a Truth Social post on Monday that the uranium, reportedly located in nuclear sites damaged by U.S. airstrikes last year, would either be transferred to the U.S. or destroyed in situ or at another acceptable location, supervised by the Atomic Energy Commission or an equivalent authority. This suggest a shift from Trump’s earlier stance, which demanded that the U.S. take comprehensive control of Iran’s uranium stockpile.
How Trump’s plan affects Israel’s war in Lebanon
Another crucial unresolved matter is whether any ceasefire will extend to Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah, an Iranian-supported militant group based in Lebanon. Iran has insisted upon the inclusion of Lebanon in any ceasefire agreement brokered with the U.S.
The U.S. administration seems to allow some flexibility regarding this Lebanon issue. The proposed memorandum of understanding would establish a ceasefire between the U.S. and its allies against Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, while affirming Israel’s right to respond to imminent threats and to act in self-defense.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the military’s intentions to “deepen its operation” in Lebanon. Former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Jonathan Conricus remarked that Israel is anticipating that Iran would swiftly redirect any sanctions relief toward recuperating its military strength and supporting allied groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza.
“We’re not done fighting because the Iranian regime isn’t done,” Conricus stated, emphasizing the ongoing struggle against Iran’s influence.
‘Stunned silence’ as Trump ties Abraham Accords to Iran deal
Trump declared on Monday that any treaty aimed at concluding the conflict with Iran should necessitate the involvement of additional nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan in the Abraham Accords, agreements from his first term designed to normalize relations with Israel.
However, Trump’s optimism about the likelihood of other Middle Eastern countries and predominantly Muslim nations joining the Accords may be overly ambitious.
For instance, Saudi Arabia, which holds significant status in the Arab world and is considered a pivotal target for normalization, has maintained that establishing a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state is a prerequisite, something Israel strongly opposes.
This message was conveyed during a call between Trump and Middle Eastern leaders over the weekend, but Barbara Leaf, a retired U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and senior official during the Biden administration, indicated the response from Gulf countries was one of “stunned silence.” A source familiar with the conversation has disputed this depiction, claiming that some regional allies reacted positively to Trump’s invitation to participate in the Accords.
Leaf noted that, although Middle Eastern allies recognize the risks associated with Iran potentially using any sanctions relief to strengthen its military might, they still support Trump’s pursuit of a resolution to the conflict.
“They see no other way out,” remarked Leaf, referencing the perceived need for resolution in light of prior missteps by the administration.
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AP writers Matthew Lee and Darlene Superville in Washington, Samy Magdy in Cairo, and Melanie Lidman in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
