Overview of Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president intensifies impeachment discussions: The Hill
A potential trade agreement with China might be closer than anticipated, according to Trump: Reuters
Iran’s President: discussions with the US depend on the removal of sanctions: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Johnson’s comments ignite outrage in Parliament: Bloomberg
Is the US stock market gearing up for a surge if Trump faces impeachment? CNBC
New home sales in the US saw a rebound in August, nearing a post-recession peak: CNBC
The House of Representatives has officially initiated an impeachment inquiry against President Trump, marking a significant event with limited historical precedent, thus making investment implications largely speculative. The immediate reaction from the market has been a measured yet assertive shift towards safe assets, particularly in Treasuries. The future trajectory remains uncertain, but it is reasonable to assume that political dynamics will continue to dominate discussions for the foreseeable future.
Democrats officially begin impeachment inquiry into Trump: Reuters
Did Trump confess to a crime amid the Ukraine crisis? Fox
Investors reassess political risks following formal impeachment inquiry: MW
Gold prices rise as political tensions in the US escalate: Bloomberg
China’s foreign minister states that the US should eliminate “unreasonable restrictions”: CNBC
Manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region decreased in September: Richmond Fed
The one-year trend for US home prices dropped to a seven-year low in July: Bloomberg
US consumer confidence declined in September, reaching a three-month low: MW
Concerns about a potential recession have been prevalent recently, but the likelihood of finding definitive evidence in next month’s initial third-quarter GDP report is low, according to a revised set of forecasts. In fact, current projections indicate a slightly improved outlook compared to early September estimates.
The Ukraine issue escalates discussions surrounding Trump’s impeachment: The Hill
Trump is contemplating a new summit with Kim Jong Un: CNBC
US Treasury Secretary states that trade discussions are scheduled for two weeks from now: SCMP
Business confidence in Germany has improved in September: Reuters
Tangible data from German manufacturing raises concerns over recession: Bloomberg
The US economy continued to grow at a modest rate in August: Chicago Fed
Survey data indicates slow but steady US growth in September: IHS Markit
Fears surrounding Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply have driven commodity prices upward over the past week, leading to substantial gains for the major asset classes, as measured across a range of exchange-traded funds.
Pressure mounts to impeach Trump as new information regarding Ukraine surfaces: NY Times
China cancels a previously scheduled visit to the US at the request of the US government: Bloomberg
Iran releases a British-flagged tanker ahead of a UN summit: WSJ
Iran’s president urges Western nations to exit the Persian Gulf: Politico
Arab political factions in Israel extend support to Gantz in an effort to displace Netanyahu’s government: BBC
UK Prime Minister Johnson advises not to expect a Brexit deal in talks in New York: Reuters
Protests in Hong Kong have now entered their 16th consecutive week: CNN
Chicago Fed data for August is anticipated to indicate low recession risk
The Eurozone economy appears to be “virtually stalled” as of September: IHS Markit
By Walden Bello
Summary via publisher (ZED Books)
Emerging relatively unscathed from the banking crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as a model of both rampant success and fiscal stability. However, beneath this facade lies a network of vulnerabilities likely to trigger the next significant financial collapse. A bloated real estate market, a volatile stock market, and an expanding shadow banking sector contribute to a perfect storm that could threaten the stability of the global economy. Walden Bello explores recent financial crises—from the collapse of Japan’s ‘bubble economy’ in 1990 to the Wall Street crash in 2008—emphasizing their political and human repercussions, including increased inequality and environmental damage. He predicts that China could well be the epicenter of the next financial disaster and warns that under neoliberalism, such crises may continue to recur.
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Momentum with Volatility Timing
Yulia Malitskaia (VKY Analytics)
July 9, 2019
The rising popularity of factor investing has consequently stirred interest in factor timing methodologies for dynamic multi-factor portfolio allocation. This shift is seen as a natural evolution bridging the gap between passive and active management. The research paper introduces a volatility-timed winners strategy, utilizing past volatilities as a predictor to reduce momentum factor underperformance during market downturns and post-crisis periods. This approach has been validated through Spearman rank correlation and applied across various strategies, including momentum volatility scaling, risk-based asset allocation, and MSCI momentum indexes. The analysis also synthesizes existing volatility scaling techniques, integrating two facets of the smart-beta approach: factor investing and risk-based asset allocation.
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Iran warns of “all-out war” if the US retaliates following attacks in Saudi Arabia: WaPo
Oil is on track for a 7% gain this week following the Saudi attacks: Reuters
A FedEx pilot has been arrested in China, escalating tensions with the US: CNN
The US temporarily exempts hundreds of Chinese goods from tariffs: CNBC
Christine Lagarde, the incoming ECB President, describes world growth as “fragile”: MW
The US Leading Economic Index remained steady in August after a significant increase in July: CB
Jobless claims in the US continue to indicate a healthy labor market: CNBC
The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index indicates moderately strong growth in September: Philly Fed
Existing home sales in the US have risen to their highest level in over a year in August: Bloomberg
