The U.S. and international stock markets showed signs of recovery last week, including the recently battered segment of emerging markets, as indicated by various exchange-traded products. Conversely, U.S. investment-grade bonds and a broad spectrum of commodities experienced the only declines among the major asset classes during the trading week ending on September 14.
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Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination is in jeopardy due to new allegations: The Hill
Hurricane Florence: ‘the worst is yet to come’ for the Carolinas: CNN
Typhoon Mangkhut strikes southern China: RTE
Concerns grow among investors as reports reveal the U.S. plans to impose more tariffs on China: Reuters
Chinese stocks drop to their lowest level in nearly four years: Bloomberg
Markets adjust expectations for less aggressive monetary policy compared to the Federal Reserve’s outlook: St Louis Fed
Could a robust economy affect electoral outcomes in November? Unclear: NY Times
U.S. import prices recorded their largest decline in 1.5 years during August: CNBC
U.S. business inventories increased in July, indicating a robust economy: MarketWatch
Consumer sentiment reached a six-month high in September: Bloomberg
U.S. auto production contributed to an increase in industrial output for August: Reuters
U.S. retail spending has remained steady at a healthy pace through August:
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By Ray Dalio
Review via MarketWatch
Ray Dalio draws comparisons between today’s U.S. and the economically turbulent 1930s, but he does not foresee the next financial crisis reaching the severity of the 2008 downturn that nearly led to another Great Depression.
Nonetheless, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund firm, expresses concern that when the downturn does arrive — likely within the next couple of years by his estimation — various stakeholders such as investors, corporations, and policymakers may be caught off guard, which could further challenge the foundations of capitalism and democracy.
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Following a significant uptick in U.S. economic growth during the second quarter, expectations are for a slowdown in Q3, as drawn from a series of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median forecast still anticipates a solid 3.2% growth rate for Q3, slightly lower than the median prediction from late August.
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Hurricane Florence wreaks havoc on the Carolinas: Fox
Turkey significantly increases interest rates to combat inflation and a weak currency: CNBC
Labor costs in the Eurozone rise at the fastest rate in nearly six years: Reuters
Risk of a U.S. government shutdown increases as the September 30 budget deadline approaches: Vox
Nobel laureate Shiller suggests U.S. stock prices may rise significantly before a correction: Bloomberg
Consumer inflation in the U.S. slowed down in August, marking the first decrease in the annual pace this year: BBG
U.S. jobless claims decline, hitting a 49-year low: MarketWatch
The U.S. has now become the world’s largest producer of crude oil: U.S. Energy Department
In the regional stock market race, Middle Eastern stocks are maintaining a slight lead over U.S. equities so far this year. However, American shares are closing the gap as Middle Eastern markets have experienced recent weaknesses, as reflected in a variety of exchange-traded funds.
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The Carolinas are preparing for Hurricane Florence: CNN
Hong Kong is gearing up for Super Typhoon Mangkhut: South China Morning Post
The U.S. is working to resume trade negotiations with China: CNBC
The European Parliament has voted on sanctions against Hungary: Reuters
U.S. jets intercepted Russian bombers near Alaska for the second time this month: BI
Trump’s low approval ratings are contrasted by a strong U.S. economy: Bloomberg
Bridgewater’s Dalio warns of a potential U.S. recession within two years: Bloomberg
Inflation expectations for U.S. businesses remain steady at 2.2% for September: Atlanta Fed
Some businesses have delayed investments due to trade uncertainties: Reuters
U.S. wholesale inflation has weakened in its annual pace: MarketWatch
With an interest rate hike anticipated from the Federal Reserve later this month, concerns about potential headwinds for fixed-income securities are on the rise. However, these warnings seem to be largely ignored in the junk bond market at this time.
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U.S. industry groups are preparing to oppose government policies regarding trade tariffs: Reuters
Russia launches its largest military exercises since the fall of the Soviet Union: Reuters
Russia’s oil minister states that U.S. trade war against China poses a challenge for the oil market: CNBC
Hurricane Florence intensifies as it approaches the East Coast of the U.S.: Bloomberg
China’s export hub is experiencing pressure due to the trade war with the U.S.: SCMP
Democrats are still favored to regain control of the House in the upcoming November elections: FiveThirtyEight
Optimism among small U.S. business owners has surged to a record high in August: MarketWatch
U.S. job openings reached a record high in July: CNBC
The age of the current bull market in U.S. stocks is under scrutiny. By some analyses, we are experiencing the longest bull run on record. However, other analysts offer differing views. The debate continues on how to properly measure this market’s lifespan, including a perspective based on the end of the last NBER-defined recession. By this metric, the current bull market ranks as the second longest in recorded history, based on the S&P 500’s performance since the mid-1950s.
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As the global financial landscape fluctuates, keeping abreast of market movements and economic indicators has never been more essential. This article delves into recent developments affecting stock markets, economic forecasts, and significant geopolitical events shaping the current financial climate.
In summary, the financial markets are grappling with various challenges and uncertainties. While some indices show promising recoveries, others face steep declines. Investors remain cautious as they navigate the implications of economic policy changes and international tensions. Staying informed will be key in adapting strategy and expectations in these evolving conditions.
