As tensions rise over a potential U.S. military action against Iran, America’s allies in the Persian Gulf are increasingly anxious about the ramifications. These nations, which host U.S. bases and could face Iranian retaliation, are urgently advocating for de-escalation.
Current Military Mobilization
The scale of the U.S. military mobilization is indeed staggering. As highlighted by Kelley Vlahos of Responsible Statecraft, over 108 air tankers are either deployed or en route to the CENTCOM theater, indicating that strikes could occur “at any moment.” This military preparation not only points to the possibility of imminent action but suggests that any military operation could be more extensive and long-lasting than the prior strike on Iranian nuclear facilities last June.
Regional Concerns
General apprehension is palpable among regional observers: the considerable military buildup leaves President Donald Trump with little opportunity to backtrack without losing face in what many view as an unnecessary predicament.
While U.S. military planners focus on potential targets, Iraq and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states see only risk.
Diplomatic Efforts to Prevent Conflict
Over recent months, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, along with Turkey and Egypt, have engaged in intense diplomacy aimed at urging Washington and Tehran to de-escalate. Their motivation is not sympathy for Iran, but rather the understanding that they would bear the brunt of any Iranian retaliation and the subsequent fallout from a possible regime collapse.
Potential Consequences of Escalation
Galip Dalay, a regional analyst, expresses that the prospect of an Iranian regime collapse could ultimately benefit Israel, which may lead to greater destabilization in the region. “Iran’s diminished power increases risks from an aggressive Israel and the uncertainties inherent in a potentially collapsed Iranian state,” he noted.
Bader al-Saif, an assistant history professor at Kuwait University, echoed similar sentiments regarding the detrimental impact of potential military actions. “Bombing Iran contradicts the interests of the Arab Gulf States, as it enhances Israel’s hegemony within the region,” he said in a recent New York Times article.
Impact on Iraq and Regional Stability
Iraq, predominantly Shi’a, faces significant risks of political and social unrest. After enduring decades of turmoil since the U.S. invasion in 2003, Baghdad is eager to avoid entanglement in further conflict. An anonymous expert familiar with Iraqi politics warned that smaller, hardline Shi’a factions might be provoked to act against U.S. forces on Tehran’s behalf.
However, major Shi’a political groups like the Shiite Coordination Framework view a conflict as an existential threat to Iraq’s fragile sovereignty, reinforcing the desire to maintain stability.
Iran’s Interests and Regional Implications
Tehran also aims to keep Iraq stable. A functional neighbor and trade partner is preferable to a chaotic state that struggles to survive.
The potential dangers facing the Gulf region are multifaceted. There is the immediate threat of Iran targeting U.S. military bases. For instance, the June 2025 missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base serves as a reminder of the vulnerabilities Gulf nations face.
A new military campaign could lead to Iranian missile attacks on facilities in Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Iranian officials have issued warnings suggesting that any retaliation would be significantly more impactful than past actions.
Economic Concerns and Global Fallout
Even if the Gulf states manage to avoid direct strikes, they could still suffer severe economic consequences. Amid efforts to diversify their economies, the looming threat of war may dissuade investment and talent.
Additionally, a significant refugee crisis looms if an economic collapse or conflict in Iran occurs, potentially forcing thousands of Iranians to seek refuge in the UAE. This proximity makes the regional ramifications all the more significant.
Iranian officials have openly warned that they consider all options in the event of war, including potentially obstructing the vital Strait of Hormuz. While a complete blockade may be unlikely, targeted actions against vessels linked to Western nations could occur, leading to skyrocketing insurance premiums and global oil prices.
Heightened Nuclear Risks
The specter of increased U.S. military action could push Iran to abandon its civilian nuclear aspirations, opting instead for military capabilities—all while undermining the very objectives of the impending conflict. Realistically, without full-scale occupation by the U.S. and Israel, obstacles to Iran’s nuclear advancement might evaporate, placing Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in a precarious position.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. military mobilization around Iran raises the specter of imminent strikes.
- Persian Gulf allies fear the implications of military action and advocate for de-escalation.
- Regional diplomacy seeks to prevent an escalation that could trigger chaos and instability.
- Military action could lead to severe economic consequences for Gulf states.
- Potential conflict may provoke a nuclear arms race in the region.
FAQ
What are the main concerns of Gulf states regarding a U.S. attack on Iran?
Gulf states fear Iranian retaliation, economic destabilization, and political chaos that could follow an attack.
How might the conflict affect Iraq?
Iraq is concerned about political instability and the risk that hardline groups may attack U.S. interests in support of Iran.
What economic impacts can be expected in the event of military action?
Military conflict could deter foreign investment and lead to increased oil prices and inflation globally.
Could a conflict lead to a nuclear arms race?
Yes, heightened tensions may prompt Gulf states to seek their own nuclear capabilities in response to a potentially nuclear Iran.
In conclusion, the stakes are high for U.S. military actions against Iran, not just for the direct participants but for the stability of the entire Gulf region. The insights from regional experts underscore the necessity for thoughtful and measured approaches to diplomacy in order to avoid further conflict.
