By Emma Rumney
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – Major brewers and their investors are looking forward to a brighter outlook for 2026. With the upcoming soccer World Cup and a strategic shift towards soft drinks, they hope to navigate ongoing challenges such as geopolitical tensions, health-conscious consumer trends among Gen Z, and rising cost of living pressures.
Brewing Challenges
Heineken recently announced plans to eliminate up to 6,000 positions over the next two years. Carlsberg has expressed concerns about another difficult year for consumer spending and the risks associated with trade wars. Meanwhile, Budweiser-maker Anheuser-Busch InBev revealed its lowest profit growth since 2020, with all three companies experiencing a decline in sales volume.
Despite these setbacks, shares of the largest European brewers, which collectively generate $114 billion in annual revenue, have seen an uptick. Investors are optimistic that this year will be less challenging than 2025.
“We have a very good year in terms of opportunities to activate,” said AB InBev CEO Michel Doukeris during a meeting with investors. He highlighted the potential boost from the soccer World Cup in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, along with the rapid growth in non-beer and low-alcohol beverages.
He noted that pressures in key markets like China and Brazil, where adverse weather has affected sales recently, are beginning to subside. This improvement suggests a more promising outlook for 2026 following a “very complicated” 2025.
Rebound Hopes
After a significant slump in beer sales during 2025, which compounded years of stagnant growth, Heineken’s beer volumes are down 8.6%, AB InBev’s have decreased by 6.5%, and Carlsberg’s are down more than 3% since 2022.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic that beer volumes may show recovery this year, with average growth expectations of 0.4% for AB InBev, 1.1% for Heineken, and 3% for Carlsberg.
“Generally, I think 2026 could be a much better year in terms of volume growth,” remarked Javier Gonzalez Lastra, an analyst at Berenberg, adding that the preceding year was “pretty horrific” for Heineken.
Carlsberg has made significant strides by focusing aggressively on beverages beyond beer, recently completing a $4.2 billion acquisition of soft drink maker Britvic, which has helped to mitigate the weak demand for its beer products.
CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen indicated that 2026 could see further growth driven by sports events, the integration of a Pepsi business in Kazakhstan, and a more favorable market climate in countries like India and Vietnam. He expressed his confidence in anticipating both revenue and volume growth this year.
“We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic,” he stated during a press conference.
However, Steve Minnaar, portfolio manager at AB InBev investor Abax Investments, cautioned that industry trends remain challenging, despite some early indicators of recovery.
“We’re not overly optimistic about it,” he remarked. “I wouldn’t say things are more positive, but less negative.”
Key Takeaways
- Heineken plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs over two years.
- Carlsberg warns of another challenging year for consumer spending.
- AB InBev reports its lowest profit growth since 2020.
- Optimism surrounds the upcoming soccer World Cup and soft drink diversification.
- Analysts predict a potential rebound in beer volumes for 2026.
- Carlsberg’s soft drink acquisition aims to offset poor beer demand.
FAQ
What are the main challenges facing brewers in 2025?
Brewers are grappling with geopolitical tensions, health-conscious trends among consumers, and rising living costs.
What do analysts expect for beer volume growth in 2026?
Analysts predict a slight recovery in beer volumes, with average growth forecasts of 0.4% for AB InBev, 1.1% for Heineken, and 3% for Carlsberg.
How are companies adapting to changing consumer preferences?
Many companies are diversifying their product lines to include soft drinks and low-alcohol options to better align with health-focused consumer trends.
What significant events are anticipated to boost sales for brewers?
The upcoming soccer World Cup in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is expected to provide a significant sales boost for brewers.
How have recent weather conditions impacted beer sales?
Adverse weather in key markets, including China and Brazil, has negatively affected sales volumes recently but is beginning to improve.
