In California, the landscape is a stark reminder of the ongoing drought. The hills are parched, the vegetation resembles a tinderbox, and the Sierra Nevada snowpack sits at an alarming 12 percent of its average. This is the lowest level recorded since California began tracking these statistics in 1960.
Typically, wildfires in the state don’t make their appearance until fall, after the dry Santa Ana winds have swept through. However, this year is atypical—the fires ignited as early as January.
We gazed in awe from the 21st floor of a skyscraper on Figueroa Street as black smoke billowed from the San Gabriel Mountains, engulfing the Los Angeles basin and stretching toward Long Beach. The fiery sunset over San Pedro Bay illuminated our journey home.
B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California, remarked, “This could potentially be the driest water year in 500 years.” While we weren’t around during Columbus’s time, we can certainly attest that scientifically, this year is drier than a baked prune.
On Thursday, California’s Governor Jerry Brown advised residents to conserve water by limiting toilet flushes and shortening their showers while brushing teeth. The message was clear: water conservation is crucial.
An Unstable Foundation of Cheap Abundant Water
On Friday, it was confirmed that the State Water Project would not deliver water to urban areas or farmers due to the severity of the drought. This unprecedented decision marks a significant point in the history of California’s water management, which spans over 54 years.
This effectively means that municipal water and irrigation districts must rely solely on local resources and storage systems. Some communities that depend heavily on the State Water Project for their water supply find themselves in serious trouble.
Ingram also noted that the 20th century in California was unusually mild, featuring less severe droughts compared to historical patterns. A wetter climate transformed life here, leading to substantial development based on these favorable conditions.
This growth, fueled by a century of inexpensive credit, saw California’s population surge from fewer than 1.5 million in 1900 to nearly 40 million today. It has also turned vast stretches of desert into flourishing agricultural land. Yet, one must ponder: what if the current drought, now in its third year, were to persist for an entire century?
The urban areas, noted for their water efficiency, would undoubtedly face constraints. However, rural farming communities would likely bear the brunt of the impact, given that California’s agricultural economy has been built on an unstable foundation reliant on cheap, abundant water.
Pray for Rain
While many attribute water issues to urban centers, it’s essential to recognize that California agriculture consumes about 80 percent of the state’s developed water supply. To endure a protracted drought, farmers must shift from flood and sprinkler systems to drip irrigation, a transition that many may struggle to afford due to the high initial costs.
Currently, California finds itself in a bear market for rainfall. The repercussions extend beyond state borders—less fresh produce is expected, and the items that do reach the market will come with a hefty price tag.
California is responsible for nearly half of the nation’s fruits, nuts, and vegetables. In 2012 alone, this agricultural output yielded a staggering sales value of $44.7 billion. With the ongoing water shortages, thousands of acres could remain fallow, jeopardizing the Central Valley’s economic stability.
In a surprising twist, rain fell on Sunday. However, it was not nearly enough to alleviate the ongoing drought. San Francisco Bay Area cities received between a quarter and half an inch of rain, while Southern California experienced barely enough precipitation to wash away street grime.
Unfortunately, this rainfall is insufficient to resolve the drought crisis. Unless sustained rains arrive soon, we may head into the dry season without a wet season. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and keep you updated in the weeks to come. In the meantime, consider planting a few extra tomato plants in your garden this spring to help buffer against the anticipated spike in fresh produce prices. After all…pray for rain.
Sincerely,
MN Gordon
for Economic Prism
