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Iran Conflict: Anticipating Major Strikes or Trump’s Stalemate?

  • 2026年5月8日
  • Estimated read time 15 min read
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As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to unfold, this post aims to provide a brief overview of the latest developments. Although the situation appears quieter, there have been notable skirmishes and strategic posturing that could escalate further. I will update this post if anything significant occurs, possibly as late as 9:00 AM EDT.

Currently, the situation on the ground seems relatively stable, but the underlying tensions remain. The U.S. and Iran remain at stark odds in their negotiations, despite the U.S.’s decision to relax some of its earlier demands, such as the withdrawal of Iran’s regional allies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah.1 Recent attacks on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and Tehran have been reported; however, they are relatively minor. These strikes may have originated from the UAE, although Al Jazeera attributes them to U.S. forces, indicating ongoing points of contention. Additionally, Iran seems to be adopting new strategies to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The broader picture indicates that the U.S. is losing ground in its dealings with Iran. President Trump’s tactic of making abrupt, high-profile moves to pressure opponents appears to be backfiring, as Iran seems to be gaining the upper hand, showing resilience against U.S. pressures. The Iranian leadership interprets Trump’s erratic behavior as a sign of weakness rather than strength. Typically, Trump’s confrontations with various actors keep him occupied, providing him with a semblance of time, but in this scenario, he does not have that luxury.

Every week of inaction complicates potential military operations as the oppressive heat and humidity of June approach. Moreover, even low-level conflict further strains the U.S. military’s limited resources. A sustained presence of troops in the region also carries significant costs. Damage to the core U.S. economy is steadily increasing, which could lead to visible consequences by the end of May, such as jet fuel shortages affecting air travel during the summer and a potential rise in average gas prices in the U.S. above $5.

In light of these developments, Trump appears to acknowledge the risk and has begun to frame the situation as a necessary sacrifice for consumers, suggesting that $8 per gallon for gasoline is an acceptable price to pay. However, it is doubtful that many financially strained consumers will share this perspective:

Reports from social media, later confirmed by Professor Mohammed Marandi during a talk with Daniel Davis, suggest that Saudi Arabia has reopened its airspace and facilities to American forces. The halt in operations after Trump initiated Project Freedumb may have been a warning rather than a total withdrawal of support.

However, this recent move raises a critical question: Are the Saudis signaling that they wish to assert greater control over their airspace, thereby moving away from an unconditional U.S. partnership?

On the kinetic front, Al Jazeera offers the following updates:

According to Bloomberg, which often downplays clashes, it aligns with Al Jazeera’s reporting concerning recent hostilities:

According to the live blog from Al Jazeera:

  • Iran’s military reported that U.S. forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and another vessel near the port of Fujairah in the UAE, while U.S. airstrikes hit civilian areas in Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island in southern Iran. Iranian air defenses were also engaged over western Tehran.
  • The U.S. military claims its naval vessels faced Iranian missile, drone, and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and that it responded by neutralizing “inbound threats” and targeting “Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces.”

A closer look at the actions taken reveals:

An insightful evaluation states:

The phrase “infiltrated the blockade” is noteworthy:

Of particular interest, a key point from the tweet states:

The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defenses and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm served as the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal.

There are also reports of a significant oil slick observed southwest of Kharg Island, though the implications remain unclear. However, kinetic activities and surface fires have flared up in the Strait of Hormuz:

Additional insights suggest:

Alongside retaliation, Iran is vocal in its condemnation of U.S. actions. According to a report from Almayadeen:

Iran has asserted that the United States has breached the ceasefire agreement by targeting Iranian oil tankers and civilian areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has warned that it will retaliate “forcefully” against any further attacks.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters stated that the U.S. forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker moving from Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz, along with another vessel near the Emirati port of al-Fujairah. The spokesperson also accused the U.S. of striking civilian areas in Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island “in collaboration with regional states.”

The Al Jazeera feed further reported:

WATCH: Trump insists ceasefire is still in effect, urges Iran to “sign agreement fast”

U.S. President Donald Trump maintains that the ceasefire with Iran remains active despite exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. He has threatened possible repercussions for Tehran unless a truce is established quickly.

This segment included a short video clip of Trump delivering threats reminiscent of comments made in this post:

In an interesting turn, it has been reported that three Japanese ships have transited the Gulf without paying any fees to Iran, and the shipping company, Mitsui OSK Lines, has stated it will not pay any fees moving forward. It appears that Iran’s evolving policy on fees might target only oil tankers and cargoes from unfriendly nations, should it choose to permit such vessels to pass.

Larry Johnson’s commentary today aligns with what has been expressed since the outset of this conflict: a negotiated agreement is unlikely due to the significant differences in both sides’ positions. From The Gulf Separating the US and Iran is Too Wide to Bridge:

The U.S. approach is predicated on several misconceptions. Firstly, Iran is not the principal sponsor of terrorism nor is it actively destabilizing its Gulf Arab neighbors. Secondly, there is cohesion among Iran’s top political and military leaders, all of whom have deep ties stemming from the Iran-Iraq war. Thirdly, Iran’s economy is reviving due to support from Russia, China, and Pakistan, alongside high oil prices. Lastly, contrary to Trump’s assertions, Iran’s military capabilities, including its navy, air force, and missile systems, remain intact and able to engage with U.S. and Israeli forces effectively.

Furthermore, Trump faces dilemmas as public discontent grows over escalating gasoline prices, the U.S. economy falters, and viable military solutions become scarce. Renewed attacks on Iran could further deplete U.S. weapon stockpiles and provoke retaliation that would inflict substantial damage. Persisting with hostilities against Iran will also strain U.S. relations with Russia and China.

The real danger to the U.S. is not military but economic. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz poses an unprecedented threat to the global economy, and efforts to counteract this will only exacerbate what could turn into a worldwide financial crisis.

Al Jazeera provides further clarification on the peace negotiations:

‘Huge gap’ exists between Iran and the U.S. as ceasefire deal is reviewed despite recent clashes

Neither party has officially declared the ceasefire invalid. The Americans assert that it remains intact, whereas the Iranians allege violations by both the Israelis and the U.S.

According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, they are still considering the U.S. proposal, with reports suggesting that a response was expected to be delivered to Pakistani mediators yesterday.

Though unconfirmed, Iranian officials emphasize the ongoing review of the proposal. Despite military confrontations, diplomatic engagement between both nations is still alive, albeit strained.

In light of Iran’s feedback, the ongoing dialogue may soon clarify the path forward; however, Iranian representatives have already labeled several U.S. demands as unrealistic and maximalist, highlighting the vast divide between the two positions.

Despite diplomatic efforts, Richard Pape warns that the U.S. remains poised for escalation:

It was initially observed that greater stabilization in the Gulf states could either lead to reconciliation with Iran or a significant shift away from U.S. dominance. The U.S. continues to exert influence in Iraq, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards favoring Iran. Oman seems to be maintaining a neutral stance, as does (less effectively) Qatar.

Pape expressed cautious optimism that the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, may begin to restrict U.S. support, which could signal an impending conclusion to escalating hostilities. Some insights from yesterday’s post by Pape highlight the repercussions of various actions:

The shift began when Iran attacked energy-linked infrastructure near the UAE’s pipeline system connected to Fujairah — the last major bypass that allowed Gulf oil exports to avoid Iranian threats. That path can transport approximately 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels daily outside waters directly threatened by Iran.

The message was clear: There is no longer a secure alternative to Hormuz.

With this realization, Gulf states must reevaluate their strategies. Supporting expanded U.S. initiatives not only risks inciting Iranian retaliation but also endangers their own economies and stability.

Survival instincts will often supersede alliance loyalties, prompting states to abandon strategies that increase personal risk.

For allies to specialize in pro-U.S. actions, there must be confidence in their capability to restore control…

As nations start to hedge their alliances, the implications compound swiftly. Military operations become more challenging, credibility diminishes, rivals gain leverage, and even neutral states may reconsider their positions.

Consequently, every escalation becomes more politically costly than the last.

This could explain why the Saudis are acting to resolve the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz:

It appears that Trump may finally find himself limited in his options. Putin has issued a strong warning, and if John Helmer’s interpretations are correct, the anticipated meeting with Xi may not occur unless the U.S. ends its military operations and actively engages in negotiations. Trump, who is focused on maintaining a strong public image, seems particularly eager for this meeting.

However, as Pape points out, ambitious powers often prefer to gamble on escalation, even with poor odds, rather than concede defeat and suffer a loss of prestige through withdrawal.

On the economic front, signs of demand destruction are underway:

Moreover:

As we continue to focus on Iran and the surrounding areas, it is crucial not to overlook Israel’s ongoing military actions in Gaza and Southern Lebanon:

In a rare response, the U.S. government has acknowledged the situation. In an article from Al Jazeera titled Senators press U.S. military on Israel’s displacement in Lebanon:

Several U.S. senators have raised concerns regarding the military’s potential involvement in establishing large-scale “evacuation zones” across Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran.

In a letter directed to Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), 12 senators expressed that mass displacement orders probably violate international laws pertaining to humane warfare that the U.S. has historically supported.

This letter, sent on Monday and made public on Thursday, focused substantially on Israel’s actions in Lebanon, where the Israeli military is systematically demolishing depopulated border towns.

“The declaration of military evacuation zones has been used to permanently displace individuals and destroy homes and towns – acts that contravene international law,” the legislators asserted.

“Additionally, no declaration of evacuation zones or ‘kill zones’ absolves Israeli and U.S. forces from the legal obligation to confirm that each targeted individual or civilian facility is legitimately a military target.”

According to a surprising report from the Times of Israel in With ceasefires on three fronts, hoped-for war gains suspended in dangerous limbo:

After engaging in conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, Israel now finds itself in a ceasefire with all three adversaries.

The Israel Defense Forces have dealt substantial damage to its foes on each of these fronts, but the existing threats have not dissipated.

Amidst the chaos, there are concerns regarding Trump’s commitment:

Trump appears anxious to avoid further military confrontation

Despite issuing bold threats against Iran—promising total destruction if U.S. vessels are targeted and escalating strikes if an agreement isn’t reached—it’s evident he wishes to avoid entering another war.

Last month, Trump expressed a reluctance to extend the brief ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he remarked. “I foresee bombing, as it’s a better mindset to adopt.”

Yet, hours before the truce was set to lapse, he extended it unilaterally, citing a request from Pakistan. In the meantime, Iran continues its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Even following Iran’s persistent bombings of the UAE—an ally of both the U.S. and Iran—Trump refrained from retaliating and instead provided justifications for Iran’s actions, claiming that the ceasefire had not been breached.

“[It was] not heavy firing,” Trump stated. “They were essentially neutralized.”

Trump seems eager for a deal, softening his demands, overlooking violations, and offering optimistic forecasts that the Iranian leadership has dismissed.

There remains hope that Trump may ultimately decide to step back from the current escalation, although it may require weeks of unfavorable economic news and substantial setbacks before that happens. As Pape warns, the potential for escalation always appears deceptively manageable.

This concludes today’s update. Stay tuned for further developments!

_____

1 While the U.S. has not entirely relinquished its demand for Iran to abandon its long and medium-range missiles or subject all military sites to inspections, the most recent U.S. briefing suggests that Iran must permit access to its military installations, which would afford the U.S. a significant informational advantage and provide a basis for claiming that missiles might be related to a concealed nuclear agenda.

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