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Economic Insights: Markets, Investing & Inflation | Economic Prism Part 161

With a burst of energy, he raced to the window, threw it open, and poked his head out. The air was clear and bright, filled with a joyful chill; a perfect day—golden sunlight flooded into his view, a heavenly sky above, accompanied by the sweet freshness of the morning air and the joyful sounds of ringing bells. Oh, what a glorious day!

“What’s today?” shouted Scrooge, calling down to a boy in his Sunday best, who seemed to have lingered around to catch a glimpse.

“EH?” the boy replied, astonished.

“What’s today, my good fellow?” Scrooge continued.

“Today?” the boy said. “Why, it’s CHRISTMAS DAY.”

“It’s Christmas Day!” Scrooge exclaimed to himself. “I haven’t missed it! The Spirits have worked their magic in just one night. They can accomplish anything. Yes, indeed! Hallo, my good fellow!” Continue reading

This past weekend, the annual holiday party took place at Clearman’s North Woods Inn. As the President and Founder, I was tasked with sharing a few anecdotes. Here’s a glimpse into our rather unconventional adventures.

The year is slipping away quickly. The remnants of 2014 are fading fast like the last grains of sand through an hourglass. As the days dwindle, they seem to fly by even faster.

Take a look around; the days are short, and the nights stretch on, growing particularly dark just before dawn. Once again, 2014 was not the year our modest publishing venture transitioned from darkness to light.

Each sale required an immense amount of effort to achieve. Selling newsletters has felt akin to marketing ice to Eskimos; there seems to be little demand for what we offer, even when we try to practically give it away.

Rational business owners would have likely cut their losses by now, perhaps turning their focus to carpet cleaning or chiropractic work, or maybe even trying their hand as a magician in a local dinner theater. Continue reading

December has been an eventful month thus far. The markets have been unpredictable; the DOW plunged 890 points, only to rebound by 710. Oil prices fell by 26 percent to just $55 per barrel, while gold has taken a hit as well.

This volatility could be even worse. Just ask Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is facing significant challenges. The Russian ruble has lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year alone. Earlier this week, the Russian central bank dramatically increased its key interest rate from 10.5 percent to 17 percent.

Can you envision what would happen if the federal funds rate soared to 17 percent? It would likely trigger the collapse of nearly every asset bubble, leading to financial panic and devastating economic consequences.

While the economic outlook in the United States is more favorable than in Russia, we are not immune to the fallout from poor currency management. Continue reading

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is convening today and tomorrow, and at the heart of their discussions are the two words “considerable time.” Have you ever come across something so perplexing? What’s the meaning behind it?

This inquiry began a few months back when Janet Yellen declared that these words indicate a span of six months. If the Fed drops the phrase from its upcoming press release, many interpret this as a signal that they will initiate a federal funds rate increase in exactly six months. For context, the federal funds rate has remained near zero for the last six years.

We await confirmation on whether the era of zero interest rate policies will finally come to an end. We observe closely for market reactions and subsequent repercussions. Naturally, at the Economic Prism, we are keen for the ZIRP era to conclude—it never should have started in the first place.

In truth, we believe that the Federal Reserve and their cheap money strategies have caused more harm than good. These policies have led to a situation where markets have become entirely reliant on ZIRP. Revoking this support now would be akin to stripping food stamps from a reliant family. Continue reading

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