The first week of the New Year is in the books, and if it’s any indication, we’re in for a tumultuous journey ahead with fifty-one weeks still to go. The excitement has just begun.
For instance, on Monday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange experienced an overwhelming surge of sell orders from Chinese investors. An unprecedented wave of traders hitting the sell button nearly triggered a complete failure of the market’s sell-side circuit. By early afternoon, trading halts were enacted to avert a catastrophic market collapse. Here are the essential details, as reported by Bloomberg:
“The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese equities led to a trading halt across more than $7 trillion worth of stocks, futures, and options, putting the nation’s newly-implemented market circuit breakers to their first big test.”
“Trading was suspended at approximately 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index plunged 7 percent. An initial 15-minute trading pause at the 5 percent mark failed to halt the decline, with stocks resuming their downward trajectory immediately upon market reopening.”
The mass selloff was reportedly triggered by data revealing a fifth consecutive month of contraction in Chinese manufacturing. Continue reading
With the arrival of a new year, a blank canvas awaits. Fresh aspirations and dreams lie within reach, promising that 2016 can be the year of achieving everything you desire. But what else may unfold this year?
Today, we take a moment to gaze into the crystal ball. Deep within its reflective depths, we glimpse visions of the year ahead.
Will stock markets rise or fall? What about the price of gold? Are we on the brink of World War III? Who will claim the title of the next President of the United States?
These inquiries, among others, will be addressed. Clearly, predicting the future through crystal ball gazing is more an art than a science. However, analyzing market data and projecting future trends carries similar uncertainties.
Bear in mind that past performance does not equate to future outcomes. For this reason, we’re opting for a more metaphysical method of forecasting. But before we let our crystal ball take center stage, a few words of caution… Continue reading
In a disheartening turn for U.S. shale producers, oil prices continue their steady descent into the depths. Currently at $35 per barrel—a low not seen in eleven years—this may be the bottom, though it’s more likely just a momentary pause before further declines.
Oil-exporting nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, maintain high production levels, aiming to financially undermine U.S. shale companies while protecting their own market share. Meanwhile, global oil demand is dwindling as the economy slows.
This combination of elevated production and shrinking demand has generated a surplus, leading to lower prices. The downward trend will likely persist until either demand surges or production decreases, and there are no signs that either event is imminent.
So, how low can oil prices realistically go? Remember the late 1990s when prices fell below $20 per barrel? Goldman Sachs anticipates we may see prices at that level once again.
While it’s clear that oil prices won’t hit zero, the outlook remains bleak. Continue reading
On this special day of celebration and reflection, we pause from our usual commentary on the economy and financial markets. It is Christmas Day, a time to spread joy and warmth.
In this spirit, we present the poem “Christmas Past,” by Carice Williams. It may evoke cherished childhood memories of the holiday season. Enjoy!
Christmas Past
Christmas Past, by Carice Williams
Each Christmas I remember
The ones of long ago;
I see our mantelpiece adorned
With stockings in a row.
Each Christmas finds me dreaming
Of days that used to be, Continue reading
