Conor here: It’s important to note that the following insights come from RFE/RL, an outlet influenced by U.S. perspectives, and may contain inaccuracies. Additionally, it overlooks the detail that Stoltenberg is now chairman of the Munich Security Conference, often referred to as “Davos with guns.”
Nevertheless, Stoltenberg’s upcoming book coincides with a deteriorating situation for Project Ukraine as we approach what is anticipated to be a harsh winter. While Western media concentrate on Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy sites—which do have some impact but fail to alter the overall conflict dynamics—let’s take a closer look at what Ukraine is facing, as highlighted by Intellinews:
According to Naftogaz, Russia’s retaliatory actions have resulted in a roughly 60% decline in gas production. Currently, ten out of 24 regions are experiencing blackouts or have been placed under emergency power measures, as reported by Ukrenergo.
Ukraine was already grappling with insufficient gas supplies for the winter, storing about 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) against the 13 bcm needed to maintain heating and electricity through March. While Ukraine generates approximately 20 bcm of gas domestically each year, it will need to import additional quantities. However, with German gas reserves only 75% full—making Germany the largest supplier in Europe after Ukraine—Europe overall is facing gas shortages as temperatures begin to drop.
This context sheds light on why, as Moon of Alabama observed recently, “EU-NATO are retreating from ‘Ukraine Is Winning’ to pleading for a ceasefire.”
Glenn Diesen succinctly summarizes the situation:
Europe cannot sustain the proxy war against Russia on its own. The United States is selling weapons it doesn’t have to Europe, which can’t afford them, in order to arm Ukraine, which lacks the manpower to use them. pic.twitter.com/eb1cjdN2eY
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) October 14, 2025
Let the blame game commence.
By Ray Furlong, a Senior International Correspondent for RFE/RL. He has reported on various regions including the Balkans, Kazakhstan, and Georgia since joining the organization in 2014. Prior to that, he spent 17 years with the BBC as a foreign correspondent in Prague and Berlin. Originally published at RFE/RL.
Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg claims that the alliance “has been letting Ukraine down” by not providing sufficient support during 2023-24, highlighting a “defeatist” sentiment in Washington and the failure of European nations to deliver promised arms.
Stoltenberg, who led NATO from October 2014 to October 2024, makes these assertions in his forthcoming book, On My Watch, Leading NATO In A Time Of War, set to be released on October 23.
The book examines his complete tenure, including NATO’s challenges in Afghanistan in 2021 and Russia’s initial aggression in Ukraine beginning in 2014. He also reflects on the future of the alliance in light of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Stoltenberg comments on the occasionally tense atmosphere among allies, noting, “The tone among the allies is sometimes sharp.” Currently serving as Norway’s finance minister and a former prime minister, he recognizes that security views among U.S. administration officials and NATO allies are largely consistent. The U.S. continues to view China as its primary competitor, and the focus on the Indo-Pacific region is escalating, along with ongoing discussions about increased defense spending in Europe and Canada.
However, Stoltenberg’s reflections on discussions with top officials around the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 provide significant insights.
Prelude To War
His account leading to the attack reveals Russia’s lack of interest in meaningful dialogue, especially during a meeting in New York in September 2021, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continually interrupted him, while his spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, appeared visibly unimpressed.
In mid-October 2021, Stoltenberg received reports from a NATO intelligence officer indicating Russia’s intention “to invade.” He believes this was driven by fear of the “political threat” from a “democratic and increasingly Western-oriented Ukraine.”
Stoltenberg also notes the transformation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who became increasingly isolated, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This observation corresponds with insights shared by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her recent memoirs, where she mentions Putin’s absence from the 2021 G20 summit due to his fear of contracting the virus. She suggests this isolation may have influenced his decision to invade.
Despite the apparent threats, Stoltenberg writes that key NATO members, such as France and Germany, were in denial—mirroring their response when Russian forces seized Crimea in 2014.
“Both incidents highlighted deep disagreements among NATO nations regarding their perspectives on Russia,” he notes, a theme that recurs throughout the narrative.
Woken By War
The full-scale conflict in Europe, marking the largest military confrontation since World War II, began for Stoltenberg with a phone call at 4:25 a.m. Soon thereafter, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed concerns for the safety of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stating, “We fear for his life.”
Four days later, Stoltenberg managed to speak with Zelenskyy, who urgently called for a NATO-imposed no-fly zone, a request that was ultimately denied. Stoltenberg described the conversation as “painful.”
At that time, NATO members believed there was a “widespread perception” that Kyiv would fall within days.
Despite these events, NATO did impose comprehensive economic sanctions and began the delivery of arms, as well as humanitarian and economic aid. Millions of Ukrainian refugees found refuge in Western nations.
According to the Kiel Institute, European nations contributed 177 billion euros ($206.4 billion) in support for Ukraine between January 2022 and August 2025, while the United States added 115 billion euros during the same period.
Among this support, the U.S. emerged as the principal military supplier, contributing approximately 64.6 billion euros in arms, followed by Germany at 17.7 billion. Aid packages included Patriot missile-defense systems, tanks, artillery, and fighter jets, as well as British and French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles.
Yet critics consistently argue that the level of support provided has been inadequate and often delayed. Stoltenberg concurs with this sentiment.
‘Passive And Defeatist’
Reflecting on discussions leading up to the NATO summit in July 2024, he remarks, “There was something passive and defeatist about our partners in Washington. They risked little, refrained from taking offensive measures, and kept their president out of the spotlight.”
Stoltenberg argues that then-U.S. President Joe Biden was hesitant to make decisions due to concerns about how “the other guy” might react, referring to Trump.
“But it wasn’t solely the U.S. that was failing to support Ukraine,” he states. “The EU pledged to deliver a million artillery shells between March 2023 and March 2024, but less than half have been received.”
He points out that Russia, bolstered by China economically and North Korea militarily, had more resources than Ukraine in this protracted conflict. Yet, some NATO countries opted to provide only minimal support, instead of tipping the balance.
It has been just over a year since Stoltenberg stepped down as NATO’s chief. In February, he was appointed finance minister in Norway.
During a speech at the Frankfurt Book Fair on October 17, he reiterated that NATO nations were still providing “too little, too slowly.”
This, he noted, is closely linked to a planned meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin.
“We need to engage with the Russians. But any dialogue must be grounded in strength… They must understand that we support the Ukrainians. The stronger they are on the battlefield, the stronger their position will be at the negotiating table,” he concluded.
