The economic fallout from the coronavirus is accumulating rapidly, resembling the waste piling up on Los Angeles streets. Supply chains are disrupted, factories in China are closed, iPhone production is affected, and shortages of Chinese-made goods are becoming widespread. Unfortunately, it seems that these issues will only intensify before they improve.
The economic ramifications will likely be severe. With China’s growth stagnating and first-quarter GDP hovering near zero, the global economy, including that of the U.S., will face significant challenges. Many low-cost products manufactured in China could face prolonged interruptions. What then will follow?
In all honesty, the global economy has been overdue for a synchronized downturn. The coronavirus may serve as the catalyst for this change. However, whether it was due to the pandemic or not, a downturn would have arrived eventually.
Moreover, the fear of a massive outbreak fuels public anxiety. A standard recession and bear market may be manageable, yet the spread of a highly contagious virus throws everything into chaos, pushing people toward collective panic. Continue reading
On Tuesday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell began his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, an unexpected dip occurred. Instead of rising, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell.
If the DJIA functioned like a genuine free market, it would naturally fluctuate in both directions. However, the reality is that the U.S. stock market is far from a free marketplace, especially when influenced by intense Federal Reserve interventions.
Typically, when the Fed provides guidance, one would expect the DJIA to rise. At least, that’s how President Trump sees it. As Powell delivered his remarks, the Real Donald Trump took to Twitter to voice his thoughts:
“When Jerome Powell started his testimony today, the Dow was up 125, & heading higher. As he spoke it drifted steadily downward, as usual, and is now at -15 […]”
President Trump appears to be falling for the post hoc fallacy, confusing correlation with causation. Was this a deliberate tactic? Or was it sheer ignorance? The answer is up to you. Continue reading
Looking back at history can often be misleading for those involved. Misjudgments are glaring. Shortcomings are plentiful. The absurdities of vanity stand out vividly. The clarity afforded by hindsight can transform historical figures into mere fools.
Was George Armstrong Custer simply an overconfident Lieutenant Colonel who led his troops to disaster at Little Bighorn? Perhaps, especially considering that Sitting Bull, Crazy Horse, and a force estimated to be ten times that of his cavalry loomed on the other side of the river.
Were George Donner and his brother Jacob foolishly naive when they guided their party into the Sierra Nevada in late autumn? Quite possibly. Especially when the party resorted to cannibalism in a desperate bid to survive the brutal blizzard.
Certainly, both Custer and the Donner brothers were acting with the best knowledge they had at the time. Their choices must have seemed rational and well-considered. Yet, what they failed to perceive—until it was too late to retreat—was that each decision they made led them unwittingly closer to their eventual doom. Continue reading
In 1349, during the devastating Black Death that swept across Europe, many of the era’s most brilliant minds united to seek a remedy. The grim reality was that the plague spread relentlessly, unhindered.
In desperate measures, boils were painstakingly lanced and blood was drawn with fervor, yet the plague’s swift mortality was unstoppable. It was a merciless force. People would go to bed healthy and awaken to find themselves lifeless by morning.
At the lowest point, when despair was overwhelming, the flagellants emerged. They marched in processions, desperately seeking relief through public displays of self-inflicted suffering. According to the History Channel:
“Some upper-class men joined processions of flagellants that traveled from town to town and engaged in public displays of penance and punishment: They would beat themselves and one another with heavy leather straps studded with sharp pieces of metal while the townspeople looked on.
“For 33 1/2 days, the flagellants repeated this ritual three times a day. Then they would move on to the next town and begin the process over again.” Continue reading
