The Uncertainty Factor

Defining “Uncertainty”:
PYMNTS Intelligence defines “uncertainty” as corporate executives’ self-reported assessments of unpredictability across financial, regulatory, market, and operational conditions. This includes areas such as accounts payable and receivable (AP and AR), collections, cash and liquidity positions, macroeconomic conditions, consumer demand, risk management, compliance, supply chains, payments capabilities, exchange rates, and competitive positions.

What CFOs Watch

Expansion Driven by Certainty and Demand

The middle market remains resilient, with nearly half (47%) of middle-market CFOs in expansion mode, compared to only one in five in defensive mode. However, this overall stability hides significant disparities. More than 77% of firms with low uncertainty are expanding, while only 13% of high-uncertainty firms are doing the same. Strong customer demand correlates with expansion; about 80% of firms experiencing improving demand are investing, compared to none with declining demand.

Customer demand significantly influences CFO investment decisions, with 57% citing it as a key factor. Other important signals include end-market demand (43%) and customer financial health (42%).

Different Signals for Expansion and Pullback

The signals prompting firms to invest differ from those driving pullbacks. Demand overwhelmingly influences expansion, named as the top trigger by 55% of CFOs, while demand weakness is the leading cause for pullbacks (33%). Notably, while customer demand accounts for 35% of reasons to expand, no single reason drives cuts at the same rate.

High-uncertainty firms often cite financing constraints as obstacles to investment, with 80% indicating high capital costs as an issue, compared to 41% of low-uncertainty firms.

Who Invests Through Market Softness

Cautious Optimism Prevails

Firms react to market softness in varied ways. About 45% of low-uncertainty firms see significant opportunities to invest, while only 7% of high-uncertainty firms share this sentiment. However, many high-uncertainty firms (60%) still see selective opportunities, suggesting that uncertainty does not always hinder expansion.

Despite recognizing opportunities, many firms remain cautious; 60% feel market softness necessitates caution. Only 27% feel they can seize opportunities without hesitation.

Investment Triggers Amid Uncertainty

CFOs indicate that strong customer demand and a strong balance sheet are crucial for investing during uncertain times, each cited by 52%. Additionally, two-thirds of firms with improved customer demand over the last year plan to increase investment in the coming year.

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Methodology

The report, titled “Demand Opens the Checkbook: How CFOs Decide to Grow,” is part of the 2026 Certainty Project and is based on a survey of 60 CFOs from U.S.-based companies with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion, conducted in August 2026. It examines the interplay between operating certainty, customer demand, and investment decisions.