Introduction
In recent discussions, the interplay between financial stability and climate change has come to the forefront. As we grapple with the looming impacts of climate-related disasters, the implications for our economies become clearer. In this article, we will explore these dynamics, focusing on how climate events can instigate economic downturns, the environmental challenges facing our fisheries, and the socioeconomic issues surrounding food security in America.
Part the First: Financial Stability and Climate Instability. Or, could a climate-related shock trigger a recession? This crucial question has been posed by economists in a recent editorial within Science, titled Advancing research on financial stability and climate-related financial risk:
Climate-change-induced natural disasters, such as floods, fires, and storms, significantly impact communities and have escalating costs. Yet, the financial risk management frameworks driving investor and regulatory strategies are outdated, primarily tailored to a mid-20th century climate and fossil fuel economy. To protect our financial system and macroeconomy, a clearer understanding of the climate-related risks is essential. Despite the recent disbandment of U.S. efforts to tackle these threats, ongoing research is crucial. Climate change is not a future concern; it is a pressing financial and economic challenge that affects us all.
In January 2025, the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County resulted in approximately $100 billion in total property and capital losses. Just six months earlier, Hurricane Helene devastated western North Carolina, causing significant human suffering and costing around $78 billion. These climate-related disasters diminish asset values, destabilize insurance markets, and strain household finances. Furthermore, an unstable transition to low-carbon energy adds to the macroeconomic risks. For instance, clean technology investments that once benefited from federal policies are now struggling after those supports wane. U.S. climate policies have fluctuated dramatically over the past two decades and will likely continue to do so, leading to economic disruptions and asset reevaluations.
These insights illustrate the potential consequences of climate-driven disasters. Picture a year with multiple Category 5 cyclones, similar to Melissa, which recently ravaged Jamaica, and a series of firestorms like the Palisades Fire impacting affluent areas such as Pacific Palisades, South Florida, Houston, and New Orleans. Then, consider the potential for a Category 6.5 hurricane like Sandy, supercharged by current ocean temperatures. This situation might seem far-fetched, but stakeholders are addressing these scenarios.
Recently, the Salata Institute on Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University and Resources for the Future unveiled the Climate-related Financial and Macroeconomic Risk Initiative (CFMRI). This collaborative effort among scientists, economists, finance experts, private-sector stakeholders, and policymakers aims to deepen our understanding of climate-related financial risks, enhance responses by decision-makers, and nurture a strong research community for ongoing analysis.
CFMRI will complement the work of international organizations like the Network for Greening the Financial System, focusing on how climate change impacts financial and economic outcomes. By engaging diverse private-sector participants and experts, CFMRI will unite the right players to tackle these pressing issues effectively.
As consumers, we have anticipated these shifts for decades. While hope is never lost, it necessitates action that goes beyond the traditional mindset of “drill, baby, drill.” Perhaps the upcoming thirtieth Conference of the Parties in Belem will yield actionable insights. Until then, it’s unwise to invest in properties along the Georgia coast unless you can afford to lose that money. Citizens in Western North Carolina believed they were secure until Hurricane Helene proved otherwise in late September 2024. Observing the continuing damage firsthand reminded us of the ongoing vulnerability we all face. Who will be next?
Part the Second: What’s Next for the Deadliest Catch? Recent findings from Science indicate that warmer waters in the Bering Sea have caused the snow crab population to decline. Scientists are now urgently working to forecast the future of this valuable fishery. But shouldn’t we also consider the crabs and the myriad other organisms that inhabit the rich ecosystem at the Bering Sea’s floor?
Having spent much time at marine labs across North America, I can affirm that maintaining aquatic life outside their natural habitats is incredibly challenging:
After three weeks of navigating the icy Bering Sea, much of it spent collecting crabs from the seabed, Erin Fedewa faced her last hurdle: transporting nearly 200 live crabs to a lab 3,000 kilometers away within a 24-hour window.
“This is always a bit risky,” noted Fedewa, a fisheries biologist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), aboard the Northwest Explorer, a research vessel docked at Nome.
She opened a tall blue container and looked inside. There, submerged in 900 liters of seawater, were her specimens — large snow crabs (Chionoecetes opilio) with legs as wide as hubcaps, circulating in the coldest water possible.
Success in this endeavor would distinguish productive research from a culinary disaster for these crabs. Fedewa learned this lesson during a 2022 trip when crabs died after water from a warmer area in Norton Sound was used in their tanks. “They just died,” she recalled.
This small incident mirrors the broader crisis facing snow crabs in the Bering Sea. An unprecedented underwater heatwave in 2018-2019 triggered a catastrophic decline, with an estimated 47 billion crabs disappearing — one of the largest marine die-offs ever documented. A once-thriving $150 million fishery, made famous by the reality TV show Deadliest Catch, found itself with no viable catch.
The reasons behind this decline are straightforward. When ice melts and fails to return, the water warms. Poikilotherms like crabs, which rely on temperature for regulation, begin to suffer and die. This is no revelation for biologists who recognize that biology was once simply termed “natural history”:
Researchers suspect that starvation contributed significantly to the crab population collapse. While it may seem surprising — snow crabs are notoriously hard to starve — studies by NOAA marine ecologist Louise Copeman demonstrated that crabs can endure months without food, revealing their physiological resilience. Yet, the extreme temperatures of 2018 and 2019 disrupted their natural balance, leading to increased metabolic rates; as water temperatures rose, crabs were burning through energy at four times the usual rate.
Indeed, expending energy at quadrupled basal rates can quickly lead to failure — whether for humans or crabs. The Bering Sea has cooled again, but will this trend continue? What odds would the betting platforms give on that? You can access the full article without subscription, as its reporting deserves a thorough read.
Part the Third: Update on the Prop Bet Heaven Formerly Known as Major League Baseball. Last week, we discussed the rise of legalized gambling and its potential impact on professional sports. Shortly thereafter, new stories emerged that further complicate the narrative:
Emmanuel Clase, a relief pitcher who has earned over $12 million and was set to make an additional $6.4 million next season, is at the center of a betting scandal. Despite his potential for a lucrative career ahead, federal prosecutors allege that he conspired with unnamed gamblers to manipulate pitching outcomes for betting gains—potentially risking his career for a few extra bucks.
Prosecutors claim that at least $400,000 in bets were won based on Clase’s performance, with some proceeds allegedly funneled back to him.
It’s important to remember that Clase is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Further details can be found in the ESPN article, yet the odds do not favor acquittal for him or his teammates. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani has once again been honored as the National League MVP, proving that some athletes still receive recognition for their performance.
Part the Fourth: “Lucky Jim” Shuffles Off this Mortal Coil. James Dewey Watson has passed, and his absence may not spearhead much lamentation. The obituary penned by the late Sharon Begley captures the essence of his legacy succinctly. While a new biography is on its way, it may be superfluous. Watson gained notoriety for a singular scientific breakthrough rather than enduring contributions to the field.
Yet it’s crucial to acknowledge his intuition and vision, attributes essential for any individual aiming to innovate. Nonetheless, his prejudices and controversial beliefs in later life overshadow his scientific achievements. My only encounter with him, at a university talk in the 1980s, revealed his views on the interplay of personal and professional life while pursuing science, making one wonder how typical he was of his era.
The nickname “Lucky Jim” originated from Peter Medawar’s review of Watson’s own account of the discovery of the DNA double helix in his book titled after the same. Both the review and the book had significant impacts and are worthwhile reads. However, for those seeking a comprehensive understanding of molecular biology’s history, The Eighth Day of Creation by Horace Freeland Judson remains unparalleled, along with Gunther Stent’s Molecular Genetics: An Introductory Narrative as a distant second. Students of my past who engaged with Judson’s work emerged well-prepared for their future scientific endeavors.
Part the Fifth: Oh, SNAP! It’s alarming how a government can recognize that 42 million people are struggling with food insecurity while failing to address the interruptions in their support system. Dr. Grace Bagwell Adams discusses this extensively in The Bitter Southerner:
On November 1, 42 million Americans will lose vital support from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The South—where many already live on the financial edge—will face the brunt of this challenge. Over 40 percent of SNAP-receiving households are located in this region, and the impending cutoff will create a ripple effect in grocery stores and throughout the economy. The nation’s political gridlock holds citizens hostage, with the South bearing a disproportionately heavy burden.
My academic research was centered on SNAP, examining its impact on food insecurity among low-income families. From my findings, it’s clear that SNAP remains crucial for poor families. The average monthly assistance of $300 helps mitigate starvation but rarely stops hunger completely. Moreover, SNAP primarily supports the working poor—those juggling multiple jobs while caring for children and the elderly.
Surprisingly, SNAP serves as an economic stimulus. Families receiving these benefits spend them locally, supporting grocery stores and bolstering the food economy, especially in underserved communities. While SNAP and WIC aren’t designed to eradicate poverty or hunger, they effectively prevent starvation in the wealthiest nation on Earth. However, millions will suffer more without these programs, driving many to the brink of despair.
This highlights Lambert’s First Law of Neoliberalism: Because markets, go die! And to my friends who have fully embraced MAGA, it’s essential to remember that the majority of SNAP recipients are working individuals providing for their families. The consequences of ignoring this issue will eventually ripple through society, affecting future generations.
Part the Sixth: Tylenol Still Does Not Cause Autism. A recent review in BMJ debunks the myth linking Tylenol use in pregnancy with autism, noting a lack of concrete evidence. The study highlights that existing research is often of such poor quality that any perceived connection likely stems from genetic factors and other variables. More on this topic can be found in the article.
The evidence review concluded there is no clear link between paracetamol taken during pregnancy and the likelihood of a child developing autism or attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Researchers noted that any associated effects might relate to familial genetics and other influences.
Indeed, we live in challenging times.
To conclude, it is vital that we remain aware of the interconnectedness of economic stability and climate health, the necessity of protecting our natural resources, and the ethical implications surrounding social welfare. Solutions are urgent and must be articulated collectively to ensure a sustainable future.
See you next week!
