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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Polls indicate a narrow advantage for Democrats in the House, while Republicans lead in the Senate: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/">RealClearPolitics</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Is President Trump’s emphasis on immigration limiting GOP support compared to economic issues? <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748">Politico</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">What Democrats plan to do if they regain control of the House: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-05/midterm-elections-2018-how-house-democrats-would-use-majority?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">China's Services PMI reported growth has slowed to a 13-month low in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/chinas-services-sector-growth-slowest-in-13-months-caixin-survey.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">President Xi of China pledges to increase imports and reduce trade barriers: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-trade/chinas-xi-promises-to-raise-imports-amid-trade-row-with-u-s-idUSKCN1NA053">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US job creation surged in October with year-on-year wage growth outpacing inflation: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-created-250000-jobs-in-oct-vs-190000-jobs-expected.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US trade deficit with China set a new record in September: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-imports-hit-all-time-high-trade-deficit-with-china-sets-new-record-despite-tariffs-2018-11-02">MarketWatch</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US factory orders exceeded expectations in September: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-manufacturing/us-factory-orders-increase-more-than-expected-in-september-idUSKCN1N71NB">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Traders anticipate a volatile week for Treasury bonds as the 10-year yield approaches a seven-year high: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-04/bond-traders-prepare-for-week-full-of-risk-by-dumping-treasuries?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/ten.yr_.05nov2018.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11266" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/ten.yr_.05nov2018.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-november-2018/" title="5:47 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-05T05:47:29-05:00">November 5, 2018</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1541788311/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1541788311&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=4d9f50b72cab854793c38b3c495c3567" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=1541788311&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=bookscs-20" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=1541788311" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1541788311/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1541788311&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=d7fc1a9c0a9e1ba9846bcf0e0884578c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=1541788311" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>By Paul Volcker with Christine Harper<br/><strong><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/10/the-volcker-rule-thou-shall-not-gamble-public-money/574327/">Review</a> via The Atlantic</strong><br/>Paul Volcker, towering at 6 feet 7 inches, reclined on a chaise longue during our recent conversation in his Upper East Side apartment in Manhattan. Approaching 91 and in frail health, he tires easily. Nevertheless, his voice remains robust and his intellect sharp.<br/>During our discussion, we explored his upcoming memoir, *Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government*—delving into the reasons behind his writing and the lessons he wishes to share. Volcker is not one to indulge in vanity; however, he understands the significance of his public service, and he desires that future generations comprehend it accurately. He speaks candidly, criticizing the "greed and grasping" tendencies of banks and corporate leaders, as well as the alarming disparity in income distribution in America.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-november-2018/#more-11243" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-november-2018/" title="7:53 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-03T07:53:18-04:00">November 3, 2018</time></a>
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<p>According to the latest <a href="https://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">report</a> from the Labor Department, private payrolls in the US saw a significant increase of 246,000 in October. This growth, exceeding predictions, represents a robust recovery after a lackluster rise of just 121,000 in September.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-companies-accelerated-hiring-in-october/#more-11260" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-companies-accelerated-hiring-in-october/" title="9:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-02T09:16:50-04:00">November 2, 2018</time></a>
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<p>The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) decreased to an annualized 4.5% in October, down from 5.0% the previous month. This estimate reflects the projected premium over the expected "risk-free" rate for the long term, based on an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio containing all the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2018-performance-review/">major asset classes</a>.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-november-2018/#more-11257" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-november-2018/" title="6:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-02T06:30:22-04:00">November 2, 2018</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">President Trump reports a 'positive' conversation with China’s Xi regarding trade: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/trump-says-he-and-chinas-xi-exchanged-long-and-very-good-trade-conversation.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US will grant waivers to eight nations to purchase Iranian oil: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-02/u-s-said-to-give-eight-nations-oil-waivers-under-iran-sanctions?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Expectations for US job growth to rise in today’s October report: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-job-growth-seen-accelerating-strong-annual-wage-gain-expected-idUSKCN1N70AJ">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Cook Political Report revises the forecast for Democrats' advantage in the House race: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cook-political-report-outlook-democrats-gain-30-40-seats-in-house-up-from-25-35">WashEx</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">ISM Manufacturing Index drops to a six-month low in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-manufacturing-index-falls-to-six-month-low-in-october-as-price-rises-shortages-weigh-2018-11-01">MarketWatch</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US Manufacturing PMI slightly increases in October, indicating moderate growth: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/55a714d652b44ae7b317302dcd3caf54">IHS Markit</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Job cuts in the US surged in October, largely due to Verizon: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://247wallst.com/jobs/2018/11/01/october-job-cut-total-is-highest-since-july-2015/">24/7 Wall St</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US jobless claims declined last week, reaffirming a robust labor market: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/us-weekly-jobless-claims-totaled-214000-vs-213000-expected.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Construction spending in the US remained flat in September after a notable increase: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-unchanged-in-september-after-strong-gain-in-prior-month-2018-11-01">MarketWatch</a>.</span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a seven-month low on Thursday: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-begins-month-on-downbeat-note-after-october-rout-2018-11-01">MarketWatch</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/oil.02nov2018.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11256" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/oil.02nov2018.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-november-2018/" title="5:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-02T05:42:04-04:00">November 2, 2018</time></a>
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<p>October proved to be a challenging month for most asset classes, with nearly all of them facing declines. This marked the first comprehensive setback since the widespread declines of February.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2018-performance-review/#more-11251" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2018-performance-review/" title="6:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-01T06:29:39-04:00">November 1, 2018</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">A second migrant caravan is making its way through Mexico towards the US: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/11/01/central-america-migrant-caravan-reaches-southern-mexico-guatemala-border/1842490002/"> USA Today</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">President Trump suggests deploying up to 15,000 troops to the southern border: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/414155-trump-says-he-may-deploy-15000-troops-to-border">The Hill</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US-China trade war is impacting manufacturing across Asia: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy/trade-war-impact-deepens-across-asia-but-real-economic-shock-yet-to-hit-idUSKCN1N63IS">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">China's Manufacturing PMI remained stable in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6c4e69416bae48e081660ce2ba23b7e7">IHS Markit</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US private job growth improved to 227,000 in October, an eight-month high: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2018/October/NER/NER-October-2018.aspx">ADP </a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Global stocks were under pressure throughout October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/investing/stocks-markets-october/index.html">CNN Business</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Oil's October decline marked the steepest drop in over two years: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/oil-on-pace-for-worst-month-in-more-than-2-years.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The Chicago PMI fell to a six-month low in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-falls-in-october-to-six-month-low-2018-10-31">MarketWatch</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Information technology was the leading detractor for the S&P 500 in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="http://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/rs/565-BDO-100/images/dashboard-us-2018-10.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURkaE1qWmpaV05rTURjNSIsInQiOiJIR25uYjFTUWxaRDZSc2FpWE9rWmM1bkZYVnBvWjhxOUR5Y0E1c1FtNElENXBRZTJjRDZKZXdmNmJ1ZUp2R0dzQ0xU0NkbVpxM2p3YnNhUCtqK2thTTljU2p1ZktSenVGcFRzQkFicjM2ZWliTlRGTkY2WFUzWUhsUFlVd2JZbyJ9">S&P</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sector.01nov2018.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11249" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sector.01nov2018.png" alt="" width="469" height="423" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-1-november-2018/" title="5:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-11-01T05:28:07-04:00">November 1, 2018</time></a>
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<p>The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates in December, as suggested by futures markets. However, increasing stock market volatility and signs of slowing economic growth in the US, China, and Europe are leading some to question the wisdom of another tightening move.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/analysts-question-the-case-for-another-hike-in-interest-rates/#more-11245" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/analysts-question-the-case-for-another-hike-in-interest-rates/" title="8:05 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-10-31T08:05:54-04:00">October 31, 2018</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 fell to a four-year low: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/business/eurozone-economy-gdp.html">NY Times</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US dollar reached its highest value in over a year: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-scales-16-month-highs-on-cautious-boj-weak-china-data-idUSKCN1N504P?il=0">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US has charged Chinese military officers with stealing jet engine data: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-hacking/u-s-charges-chinese-intelligence-officers-for-jet-engine-data-hack-idUSKCN1N42QG">Reuters</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">China’s Manufacturing PMI in October indicates the slowest growth in over two years: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/chinese-pmi-china-reports-official-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index-for-october.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Facing financial difficulties, GE has slashed its 119-year-old dividend to just one cent: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/investing/ge-dividend-cut-earnings-culp/index.html">CNN</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">US home price growth has dropped below 6% for the first time in a year: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/808158_cshomeprice-release-1030.pdf?force_download=true">S&P</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">The Conference Board reports US Consumer Confidence Index reached an 18-year high in October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/consumer-confidence-rises-to-an-18-year-high-in-october.html">CNBC</a></span><br/><span style="color: #0000ff;">Election forecasts still favor Democrats for reclaiming the House: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/house.31oct2018.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11244" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/house.31oct2018.png" alt="" width="691" height="518" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-31-october-2018/" title="5:36 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-10-31T05:36:50-04:00">October 31, 2018</time></a>
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<p>While many economic indicators still present a positive outlook for the US, the September report on consumer spending and income suggests that a slowing growth trend may be on the horizon. Although there are no immediate signs indicating a rising recession risk, the substantial uptick in economic activity following President Trump's election two years ago may now be transitioning to a more modest growth phase.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/has-the-rebound-in-us-consumer-spending-and-income-peaked/#more-11240" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/has-the-rebound-in-us-consumer-spending-and-income-peaked/" title="7:06 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2018-10-30T07:06:34-04:00">October 30, 2018</time></a>
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