Consequences for All Parties, Including the US, Are Not Promising.
Recent events have escalated tension in a region already fraught with instability. The recent unlawful seizure of an Iranian oil tanker transporting Venezuelan crude serves as a stark reminder of America’s aggressive pursuit of Venezuela’s vast oil resources, which account for nearly 20% of the world’s known reserves.
Even if the Maduro regime had indicated a willingness to cooperate — as some unsubstantiated reports from US media suggest — it wouldn’t suffice. Venezuelan legislation dictates that PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, must be the majority partner in any drilling venture. Washington’s ambitions reach further; it seeks outright control of these resources.
Additionally, Venezuela’s wealth extends beyond oil to include substantial reserves of natural gas, gold, rare earth elements, and fresh water. Its robust relationships with Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba are crucial as well. With the drawdown of military interests in Ukraine under the Trump administration, a new conflict is arguably necessary to sustain the Pentagon’s funding mechanisms.
One undeniable fact, as we have noted since increased naval deployments began four months ago, is that current actions are not related to efforts against drug trafficking.
A Comprehensive Blockade Against Venezuela and Cuba?
The capture of this tanker, along with Trump’s recent announcement of a no-fly zone over Venezuela, suggests a strategy aimed at toppling Maduro through a complete economic blockade. After isolating Venezuela from much of the global market via intensified sanctions, the US now appears intent on severing ties with its principal allies and diminishing remaining revenue sources, which had recently shown signs of improvement.
The Venezuelan government characterized the seizure as an “act of international piracy” and “outright theft.”
This could mark the first instance of an oil tanker being taken in Venezuelan waters, but it fits into a larger trend of both seizures and targeted attacks, as highlighted by Alex Christoforou on The Duran recently. According to Al Jazeera, the last similar incident involving a foreign tanker occurred in 2014, involving US Navy SEALs and the Morning Glory off the coast of Cyprus, amid Libyan rebels attempting to sell stolen crude oil.
If the US objective is a total blockade of Venezuela, it possesses sufficient naval capabilities throughout the Caribbean to accomplish this, as Alexander Mercouris pointed out. However, this development may significantly impact China’s interests, being the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil.
Legal Grounds for Military Action
What are the legal justifications for the US military’s actions regarding the vessel?
Does it truly matter?
Over the past four months, the US has engaged in extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. These actions further reflect Washington’s disregard for international law unless it aligns with its own objectives.
According to Bloomberg, US officials have labeling the vessel as a “stateless ship” and claimed it was docked in Venezuelan waters. The specific tanker, the M/T SKIPPER, had reportedly faced sanctions from the US Treasury since 2022 due to its connections with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah.
Here, a CNN “analyst” claims that seizing oil from another nation’s shores and retaining it is considered both “normal” and legal, provided that the country involved has come under US sanctions:
Según otra “asesora de seguridad nacional” en CNN, robar un buque petrolero es “absolutamente normal” y “según la ley que yo he leído”, legal.
Lo dicho: la prensa corporativa de EEUU es el aparato de propaganda pagada del complejo militar-industrial.pic.twitter.com/35HIuLcp26
— Kurt Hackbarth 🌹 (@KurtHackbarth) December 11, 2025
Regardless of the legality, the reality remains clear: this constitutes an act of war.
As a reader recently observed, the US’s latest maneuvers suggest that Trump is attempting regime change through intimidation, avoiding the greater risks associated with direct military aggression. However, it also seeks to undermine other regional adversaries, notably Cuba.
The timing of the tanker’s seizure is likely linked with its intended destination of Cuba, where Washington is clearly aiming to strangle the energy-deprived economy. Previous reports indicated that Marco Rubio’s State Department targeted Cuba’s medical missions — now a key source of foreign currency — with sanctions.
Will the US next attempt to block oil exports from Mexico? Following initiatives launched by former President Andres Lopez Obrador (known as AMLO in 2023), Mexico’s state-run oil company Pemex has provided essential shipments to Cuba, which has led to tensions between Mexico and the US.
The capture of the M/T SKIPPER presents a new angle to spotlight the close alliances between Venezuela and Iran — two heavily sanctioned nations facing simultaneous efforts at destabilization by the US and Israel.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio talks about why the US is preparing to invade Venezuela:
Maduro’s elections were completely rigged. Russia’s presence in Venezuela is noticeable, and Iran’s influence is growing. The Iranians are building drone manufacturing plants there — right in… pic.twitter.com/vt531Kvt0g
— Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) August 23, 2025
How Russia and China respond to this provocative act of war will be crucial. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called for an explanation from the US, advocating for multilateral discussions to address drug trafficking and maritime security, while discouraging unilateral actions.
President Putin held a phone conversation with Maduro as well, expressing his support for the Venezuelan people’s sovereignty and the Maduro administration’s policies amid increasing external challenges.
China has voiced strong opposition to unilateral sanctions lacking international legal backing and unauthorized by the UN Security Council, emphasizing their adverse effects.
On the same day, China also published its third policy paper regarding relations with Latin America and the Caribbean, aiming to enhance collaboration across various sectors.
Who’s Next on the Target List?
In a simultaneous development on the day of the tanker seizure, Trump issued a warning to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, suggesting he could be “next” in the US’s ongoing campaign to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
“He’s been fairly hostile to the United States. I haven’t given a lot of thought. He’s gonna have himself some big problems if he doesn’t wise up. Colombia is producing a lot of drugs,” Trump remarked, alluding to Colombia’s cocaine trade.
This entire scenario is perhaps a charade. Recently, Trump granted clemency to Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, who was convicted in the US for trafficking over 400 tons of cocaine— a stark contradiction for a leader claiming to combat drug operations.
Petro is also nearing the conclusion of his presidency; any aggression against his administration could be viewed as absurd. However, it remains within the realm of possibility under the Trump administration.
Recently, Petro emphasized unity among Latin American nations, advocating for the revival of the Gran Colombia confederation encompassing Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Panama (consider watching the three-minute clip below with English subtitles):
“Let’s re-establish the great Confederation of Gran Colombia. Only by uniting can we restore the vision of a prosperous region, ensuring that we are respected and not insulted or humiliated.”
In response to Trump’s threats, the Colombian Congress has demanded that the US respect national sovereignty and refrain from interfering in Colombia’s electoral process, underscoring the violation of UN non-intervention principles and advocating for diplomatic relations based on mutual respect.
Electoral Turmoil in Honduras
Meanwhile, Honduras finds itself in turmoil following claims of “widespread electoral fraud” by the governing Libre Party, further complicating the post-election landscape. From Drop Site News:
Following a presidential vote without a decisive outcome, the crisis escalated as a representative from the National Electoral Council alleged significant electoral fraud orchestrated by rival parties.
This raises the possibility that US-backed groups could be involved in manipulating the electoral process, similar to accusations made against the Maduro government during Venezuela’s 2024 elections.
The Trump administration has a history of directly influencing elections in Honduras, favoring candidates aligned with the National Party, which has been linked to previous regime changes. Honduras has long been a target of US-sponsored interventions, with its past tainted by electoral fraud, amplified by Trump-backed support for specific candidates.
As Reuters reports, Honduran officials have accused the US President of instigating an “electoral coup,” intensifying calls for accountability amidst the ongoing electoral process.
Undermining the “Zone of Peace”
This region, previously declared a “Zone of Peace” in 2014, has maintained a relative absence of interstate conflict for decades. Nevertheless, many Latin American countries have struggled with internal violence largely fueled by organized crime. The continuation of illegal drug trade exacerbates these issues, leading to calls for intensified combat against the War on Drugs.
Latin America has been the epicenter of US military interventions, with a long record of US-driven coups resulting in instability and poverty that incite migrations northward.
In light of this history, the escalating militaristic stance adopted by Trump, particularly against Venezuela, may further destabilize the region. While specific governments in the region may endorse this aggression, a substantial portion of the Latin American populace will likely resist such US interference, potentially culminating in violent conflicts, as seen in Venezuela.
Though a blockade of Venezuela’s oil might increase the chances of the Maduro regime’s collapse, it does not guarantee acceptance of a US-imposed leadership. Predictions indicate that a Libya-style fallout, characterized by disorder and turmoil, remains a probable outcome, as warned by observers.
While the US may have largely evaded the repercussions of earlier military endeavors abroad, the ramifications of aggressive maneuvers in its own hemisphere are bound to return home.
