“If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium,’ or ‘normal distribution,’ do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.”
– Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
Confronting the Unexpected
For centuries, a widely held belief in Europe was that all swans were white, a conclusion reached through logic and empirical observation.
This assumption was based on every swan ever witnessed being white, and it was considered a universal truth—a firm belief based on available evidence.
However, this notion was dramatically challenged in the late 17th century when a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This revelation shattered the long-held belief and highlighted just how fragile our knowledge and assumptions can be in the face of unexpected events.
Nearly two decades ago, in his book The Black Swan, author and options trader Nassim Taleb defined a Black Swan as an unanticipated event with significant consequences. Not only do these events catch people off guard, but they often lead us to believe, in hindsight, that their occurrence was predictable. Continue reading
President Trump and stock market investors share a common desire for rate cuts, as do prospective homebuyers.
While their motivations may differ, they all view rate reductions as a pathway to greater wealth and success.
Trump advocates for lower rates primarily to enable the Treasury to better manage the staggering $37.5 trillion national debt.
As September 30 approaches, marking the end of the 2025 fiscal year, the federal government has already recorded a budget deficit of $1.97 trillion. Notably, nearly half of that amount, approximately $933 billion, was simply to cover interest payments on the debt.
A reduction in interest rates by even a point could lower annual interest payments by several hundred billion, providing a temporary reprieve for the government’s fiscal challenges. However, it won’t address the underlying issues.
The U.S. is projected to face a budget deficit of $2.2 trillion for FY 2025. In this context, lower interest rates would only reduce the deficit to around $2 trillion—making an insignificant impact of just over half a percent compared to the total debt. Essentially, this change would have little real effect on the nation’s financial landscape. Continue reading
The day-to-day growth of government often goes unnoticed. It may start with a new law or regulation, or perhaps an added fee, all seemingly well-intentioned.
However, over a decade or even a century, these small increments can overwhelm the entire landscape, akin to the introduction of an invasive species into an ecosystem. The public is then left to deal with the consequences of an ever-expanding government.
Moreover, while adding layers of government is relatively straightforward, scaling it back is a notable challenge. It is rare for governing bodies to choose to reduce their scope and regulations. Yet, this is precisely what is occurring in Argentina.
Joel Bowman, the founder and author of Notes from the End of the World, has been observing what he calls the Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age. Today, we gather insights from Mr. Bowman, who shares his exclusive perspective from Villa la Angostura.
From this remote setting, Bowman encounters the phenomenon of Invasive Species and reports on the progress of Javier Milei’s campaign to eliminate bureaucratic overreach. Early results indicate that this initiative could benefit both individual freedom and economic growth. Continue reading
“Give me liberty or give me death!”
– Patrick Henry
Shutdown Season
Time is running out. Congress must act before the month ends to prevent a partial government shutdown. Federal agencies and dependent employees are hopeful for a last-minute agreement to keep their funds flowing.
There have been numerous government shutdowns in the past—20 since 1976, typically lasting only a day or two. The latest partial shutdown occurred during President Trump’s first term, lasting an unprecedented 35 days from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019.
Government shutdowns can cause significant disruptions, particularly in 2025, as a large segment of the population relies on federal support in some capacity. Federal employees, contractors, and those who depend on governmental services will soon feel the impact if funds are cut off. Continue reading
