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Russia Deploys Oreshniks in Response to Recent Provocations

Yves here. The recent conversation surrounding Trump’s increasing tendencies towards power and dominance has captured my attention and prompted deeper reflection. A compelling interview in the New York Times underscores this unsettling trend. Meanwhile, urgent matters continue to unfold, particularly regarding Russia’s ongoing assaults on Ukraine.

To follow up on my earlier point: Trump genuinely seems to believe that no one, including Russia, can hold him back. This belief is mirrored by Putin’s response, indicating that Trump’s insatiable need for control and his indifferent attitude towards risk are leading to even more decisive displays of power. The recent attack using Oreshnik missiles in Lvov, which obliterated not only Ukraine’s but Europe’s largest gas depot, coincided with widespread strikes throughout Ukraine that may have even greater implications.

Now, with that context in mind, let’s delve into Trump’s remarks during the interview, revealing his apparent disregard for any limitations on his authority:

During his conversation with The Times, Mr. Trump appeared more emboldened than ever. He boasted about the success of his strike on Iran’s nuclear program—keeping a model of the B-2 bombers used in that mission on his desk—highlighted the speed with which he dismantled the Venezuelan government last weekend, and even laid out his ambitions for Greenland, which is controlled by Denmark, a NATO ally.

When asked whether his priority was acquiring Greenland or preserving NATO, Mr. Trump hesitated to provide a direct answer, acknowledging that “it may be a choice.” He reiterated that the trans-Atlantic alliance is largely ineffective without U.S. leadership.

Characterizing the post-World War II norms as unnecessary limitations on a superpower, Mr. Trump dismissed any notion that leaders like China’s Xi Jinping or Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin could adopt similar reasoning to harm U.S. interests. Time and again, he asserted that, in his view, U.S. power is the key factor—and that prior presidents have been too cautious to leverage it for political advantage or national gain.

On the home front, Mr. Trump insinuated that judges only possess the authority to limit his domestic policy agenda—ranging from deploying the National Guard to imposing tariffs—“under certain circumstances.” Yet, he was already strategizing alternatives. He suggested that if his tariffs issued under emergency authority faced Supreme Court challenges, he might rebrand them as licensing fees. Moreover, Mr. Trump, who claims to have been elected to restore law and order, reiterated his willingness to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy military forces within the U.S. if he deemed it necessary.

Turning now to the latest developments regarding Russia’s persistent attacks on Ukraine:

Update 7:45 AM EST. From a post by Scott Ritter that went live after ours launched:

The deployment of the Oreshnik is a significant escalation that often goes unrecognized by those who casually endorse its use. This incident marks only the second time in history that an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable missile has been employed in combat (the first instance was the initial use of the Oreshnik on November 21, 2024).

This time, it struck close to the Ukrainian-Polish border. The implications this attack carries for NATO nations are clear—Russia has the capacity to strike NATO territories with non-nuclear conventional weaponry without facing retaliation.

It is noteworthy that Russia launched this Oreshnik from the Kapustin Yar missile test facility. While Russia and Belarus have recently announced that an Oreshnik-equipped brigade is on combat duty in Belarus, this attack did not originate from that unit.

Russia has indicated its intention to deploy additional Oreshnik-equipped brigades. The Kapustin Yar facility serves as a training ground for the missile system and its operators, suggesting that this launch may have been part of an operational training exercise intended to send a message to the West.

This was not a launch from an asset already designated for combat; rather, it served as operational training.

This distinction is important.

Russia seems to be signaling a desire to limit escalation.

This time, the camel sustained a bloody nose. But next time—if there is one—the camel may not survive.

Unfortunately, Trump appears incapable of recognizing the nuanced nature of calibrated military actions. His team comprises individuals inexperienced in strategic operations; even if someone at a lower level grasps the implications, senior officials are unlikely to heed their advice.

Returning to the original discussion:

Following the immediate fallout in Lvov, Larry Johnson reported:

Lvov deputy Igor Zinkevich indicated that kitchen stoves are barely operating, the boilers have stalled, and there is no gas pressure in the Lvov region.

As noted by Simplicius:

Though the Oreshnik attack garnered headlines, the more extensive assaults on other Ukrainian cities were far more destructive. Reports indicate that Kyiv’s thermal power plants sustained significant damage from Russian strikes, leading to major to total power outages across various urban areas.

💥— Large-scale missile-drone strikes on the energy infrastructure in Kyiv have taken place, resulting in damage to 3 Power Plants: TPP-4, TPP-5, and TPP-6.

According to local monitoring sources, the assault involved up to 12 ballistic missiles, 25 cruise missiles, and around 200 drones.

In the wake of these missile attacks, Kyiv is experiencing severe electricity, water supply, and heating issues, along with communication disruptions. Rail services have also been impacted, worsening what were already existing problems.

The even graver situation is that cities like Dnipro and Zaporozhye—both hosting nearly one million inhabitants—reportedly have been without power for days.

A Russian channel has commented on the attacks in Dnipro and Krivoy Rog:

A clearer picture of the attacks in Dnepropetrovsk and Krivoy Rog is emerging. Judging by the extent of the damage, this isn’t merely about incapacitating generation facilities; it’s a targeted attack on distribution networks.

At this juncture, it’s evident that Russia has effectively created localized but significant power outages using relatively limited resources. The strategy of concentrating attacks while redistributing resources disrupts DTEK’s typical operations and backup systems. The existing mechanisms across the Dnieper’s central industrial region are increasingly inadequate.

This makes Dnipro an effective testing ground; the city features a complex, redundant power grid specifically designed to reroute energy flows following damage. If prolonged outages can be enforced here, it suggests that this method is effective and could be expanded.

This potential for deploying energy disruptions on demand alters military tactics: it leads to targeted regional blackouts without requiring extensive bombardments, unlike the previous strategy seen over the last three years.

The question becomes one of speed: there exists an efficient system for attacking power grid nodes, contrasting with emergency services that have historically taken weeks to restore power. The faster party in this confrontation will determine the outcome.

“Military Chronicle”

By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst focusing on the transition to a multipolar world in the New Cold War. He holds a PhD from MGIMO, under the authority of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website.

The context includes Ukraine’s assassination attempt on Putin just before New Year’s, along with France and the UK’s official troop deployment plans for Ukraine contingent upon a ceasefire agreement, and the recent U.S. seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed early Friday that Oreshnik missiles were used for only the second time, targeting sites in the Lvov Region. Reports indicate that the Stryi gas field and a gas storage facility were among the impacted locations. The first Oreshnik deployment took place in November 2024, following U.S. and UK support for Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes deep into Russian territory. Recent provocations likely influenced the decision to utilize the Oreshniks again.

The confirmation mentioned that Ukraine’s significant attack on Putin’s residence in Novgorod right before New Year’s prompted this retaliation. It was noted that “The CIA Is Manipulating Trump Against Putin,” a point made when Trump shifted from believing Putin’s claim of an assassination attempt to accepting the CIA’s assertion that it only targeted a nearby military site, which can be interpreted as a retort to Trump.

As for additional provocations likely at play when Putin sanctioned the recent Oreshnik strike, France and the UK’s official plans to deploy troops to Ukraine, should a ceasefire be reached, and the U.S. seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic are certainly noteworthy. Each serves as a provocative action in their own right.

Putin had previously warned that Russian forces would consider Western troops in Ukraine “legitimate targets for destruction.” Although SVR Indicates that British and French troops are already in Odessa, the recent troop commitments are markedly different. Worryingly, Witkoff’s support of their plans raises concerns that the U.S. might reverse its previous position regarding Article 5 not applying to NATO troops in Ukraine.

The third provocation, influencing Putin’s decision-making in authorizing the Oreshnik strikes, is the U.S. seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic, which symbolically suggests the imposition of U.S. law upon another nation. If Russia fails to deliver a potent response, even indirectly, the U.S. may feel emboldened to target Russia’s “shadow fleet” elsewhere across the globe, including regions like the Baltic and Black Seas.

The selected targets within the Lvov Region were likely intended to convey to France, the UK, and their U.S. supporter that Russia has the capacity to strike NATO areas without prior notice. This capability could emerge in response to an unprecedented crisis spurred by the proposed troop deployment or further U.S. actions against Russian assets.

Putin has been historically averse to escalations in Ukraine due to their potential to spiral into global conflict. Thus, the decision to authorize the Oreshnik strikes signals the seriousness with which he is treating the attempted assassination and the other provocations at hand.

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