Introducing the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative, unveiled at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023. This ambitious network of railways, shipping routes, energy pipelines, and high-speed data cables aims to link South Asia, the Gulf, and Europe. While it ostensibly serves as a countermeasure to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its logistical feasibility is called into question. The concept involves a cumbersome process where cargo is transported by ship from India to the UAE, transferred to trains navigating through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, and finally shipped to Europe from Israel.
Initially, it seemed that IMEC, like numerous other initiatives aimed at responding to the BRI, would fade into irrelevance. However, it received robust support from the Trump administration, which hailed it as the “greatest trade route in all of history.”
Yet, with the new administration, the emphasis shifted from trade to a digital corridor centered around the Gulf’s computational power. This was discussed in our previous article on the evolving US AI strategy in the region. Notably, many reports overlook Israel’s role in this shift.
If the US is supplying the technology and the Gulf is contributing capital and energy, what exactly does Israel bring to the table?
IMEC has been partially seen as an attempt by the US to integrate Israel into controlling regional supply chains along the corridor. Recent agreements illustrate this ongoing process:
Germany finalizes a second $3.1 billion Arrow missile deal with Israel – Calcalist
UAE identified as the secret buyer in the $2.3 billion Israeli arms deal with Elbit Systems – The New Arab
However, there exists a more sinister aspect of Israel’s contributions that is often overshadowed by the hype around the “greatest trade route in history.” Two other recent articles elaborate on Israel’s darker roles:
AI surveillance companies are vying for a stake in Gaza’s resources – +972 Magazine
Israel’s ‘Algorithmic War’ and ongoing algorithmic assassinations in Lebanon – Conflicts Forum
Dovi Frances, an Israeli-American venture capitalist and prominent Trump supporter, recently highlighted Israel’s prowess:
“We represent 0.4% of the world’s population yet drive 20% of global innovation. Our 350 international R&D centers employ 10% of our labor force in high-tech, contributing 18-20% to GDP.” Frances also noted that Jewish or Israeli individuals constitute 15-25% of Fortune 500 CEOs, and Israel boasts 46 unicorns—companies valued at over $1 billion—the highest concentration globally relative to its population.
However, Israel’s technological achievements are, in part, built upon the oppression of Palestinians. Israel leads in employing AI for surveillance, control, and targeted killings, and it uniquely benefits from the ability to test and refine such technologies on a subjugated populace.
The harsh reality is that Israel has a vested interest in perpetuating its violence against neighboring regions to maintain its specialized advantage in AI surveillance and directed killings. This is partly why American tech firms are inclined to partner with Israel and acquire Israeli startups, creating a model that is increasingly prevalent in the United States.
During the electoral campaign, prominent figures from Silicon Valley, including Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen, influenced the tech policy agenda of the President-elect. In the quest to “outpace China” in AI, campaign advisors suggested the administration would abandon Biden’s AI safeguards (which they did) and aggressively pursue autonomous weapons, intelligence, and cybersecurity strategies (which they have). To meet the extensive energy demands of data centers, Trump has called for an uptick in fossil fuel production (this is where the Gulf comes into play).
In Israel, Dovi Frances was appointed by Netanyahu to establish an AI National Directorate aimed at ensuring the nation emerges as a global AI superpower. With the current trajectory of AI applications in Israel, this raises significant concerns. Yet, esteemed leaders in Silicon Valley appear eager to partake in these developments. According to Globes:
Key figures familiar with Frances’ proposal to Netanyahu indicate expectations of involvement from numerous senior personalities in the international business community. Some of these individuals maintain close ties to President Trump, including Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who co-founded PayPal with Musk, along with OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever, who left ChatGPT to form a new AI venture based in San Francisco and Tel Aviv.
In a reflection of the future, Frances anticipated developments in the region shortly after Trump’s election and commented:
Gulf investors have quietly started participating in the capital structures of Israeli tech companies, injecting funds into these firms often without public announcements. These financial activities—spanning both sales and investments—underscore the growing economic relations between Israel and the Gulf and the shared interest in advancing technological collaboration.
Under Trump’s administration, with agreements expanding to include Saudi Arabia, Israeli AI firms could lay the groundwork for entire industries across the Gulf, including sectors like education, banking, healthcare, and cybersecurity.
…The political instability in the Middle East, the AI revolution, and the shifting US political landscape are interconnected.
Two months ago, I had a discussion with Donald Trump in Washington, DC, during which we addressed the AI revolution and how his administration, if re-elected, could assist Israel in maintaining its technological edge in the region.
This outlines the vision for the region and the future of IMEC—an invitation for AI dominance from Europe to India, written in the blood of conflict and oppression. Efforts are underway to expand the IMEC model globally; in December, the US State Department introduced Pax Silica—an initiative to forge a political-economic alliance in AI and its supply chains, involving countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, the UAE, and Australia.
Many are keen to join this initiative.
A statement that resonated with me came during a visit from an Israeli business delegation to New Delhi in February, comprising representatives from over 100 Israeli companies specializing in cybersecurity, digital health, AI, and big data. During this visit, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, commented:
“Israel’s innovation and security capabilities are exceptional, and the technology showcased in ‘Operation Beepers’ [referring to Israel’s covert operation against Hezbollah in September 2024] is inspiring and unique—we want that here too.”
They may soon find themselves getting it.
In India, despite negotiators in Washington and New Delhi still seeking a trade deal to reduce Trump’s tariffs, AI investments continue to flourish. Microsoft has recently announced a $17.5 billion AI investment in India. Amazon is poised to allocate over $35 billion towards AI projects across the country. Google is investing $15 billion through partnerships with two of India’s largest conglomerates, the Adani Group and Bharti Airtel. Meta is also investing heavily, making this one of India’s largest capital influxes into a single sector in history.
This scenario may seem paradoxical, especially as New Delhi and Washington currently find themselves at odds over Trump’s economic pressures and ongoing scrutiny concerning India’s robust commercial ties with Russia. However, this strategy aligns seamlessly with broader American AI initiatives in the Persian Gulf. Guy Laron, writing for American Affairs Journal, elucidates:
… [IMEC] has now been transformed into a privatized conduit interconnecting Gulf computational resources to Indian talent. India has historically been viewed as the world’s back office—home to coders, clerks, and call centers. However, it now occupies a significantly strategic position in the AI supply chain. Its 1,600 Global Capability Centers (GCCs), employing 1.66 million professionals, have progressed well beyond basic IT and customer service functions. These subsidiaries of multinational corporations now oversee advanced functions including software engineering, data analytics, AI research, cybersecurity, and even fundamental product development. Essentially, they are how the corporate West operationalizes its digital ambitions at scale and at lower costs. The GCC sector already accounts for over one-third of India’s service exports and continues to expand rapidly.
As these centers increasingly collaborate with sophisticated AI models, India’s extensive digital labor force will grow reliant on the Gulf’s infrastructure to effectively train and implement AI at scale. Thus, India assumes a dual role within Trump’s AI corridor: a global labor hub and a regional consumer of Gulf-based computational resources.
Questions and Concerns Ahead
Let’s begin with the most glaring issue: how will data centers operate in extreme heat, such as 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit)? The ideal temperature range for data centers is between 18°C and 27°C, as specified by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers. Just this past summer, temperatures in the UAE exceeded 50°C.
Average annual surface temperature. Source: Rest of World.
According to a recent analysis by Rest of World, potential long-term solutions for cooling data centers in the Middle East could involve leveraging nuclear energy and hydrogen fuel cells, along with constructing underground facilities to endure extreme heat.
The region lacks the substantial water resources required for effective cooling.
This necessitates reliance on two-phase immersion cooling systems, which can conserve water, though they can be costly and pose challenges.
“Cracking the cooling challenge in the Gulf will unlock the last integral piece of what could be an exceptional AI ecosystem,” stated Mohammed Soliman of the Middle East Institute in an interview with The National.
However, that is a significant hurdle, and there seems to be an expectation that technological advancements will eventually fix it. Relying on AI to solve fundamental physical limitations appears to be a risky gamble.
For the time being, the Middle Eastern data centers continue to consume substantial fossil fuels to manage cooling systems and power desalination plants for essential water supply.
This reality may concern Silicon Valley leaders, Gulf monarchs, and US policymakers, but the implications for global warming are dire. Evidence suggests that the US establishment is leveraging climate change as an ally in their endeavors to destabilize and exploit regions like the Persian Gulf.
What demands will the US face in the coming years as the Gulf becomes crucial to its AI supremacy strategy, and how much support will be extended to the Gulf states’ regional and global ambitions?
The US has already extended its backing to another genocidal conflict, this one spearheaded by the UAE in Sudan. Somalia/Somaliland is on the brink of chaos as the US, Israel, and the UAE intensify their initiatives in the region.
How will the US guard these pivotal data centers and desalination facilities from potential conflicts that could emerge in the Gulf? They would certainly be appealing targets should a wider confrontation with Iran unfold. Ansar Allah in Yemen, for instance, has displayed capabilities to target critical infrastructures in the UAE and KSA.
Currently, both the US allies in the Gulf are embroiled in high-stakes proxy wars, as retaliatory actions commence against the UAE’s increasingly assertive role in regional conflicts. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia recently targeted a significant Emirati weapons shipment, explicitly condemning the UAE’s involvement in supporting separatist factions within Yemen. The two nations are also positioned on opposing sides in the Sudanese conflict, further complicating the regional landscape in Africa. Their rivalry is palpable in Somalia, where Israel has further added complexity by officially recognizing Somaliland.
A fitting conclusion to this elaborate scheme might involve the US’ two foremost AI partners—the UAE and KSA—engaging in a conflict that results in mutual destruction of each other’s data centers, utilizing American-made weapons while US missile defense systems fail to provide the promised security.
Do American opportunists care if everything crumbles, as long as they profit from the unfolding scenario? Furthermore, what will happen to this geopolitical strategy should the AI bubble eventually burst?
